Giants

Playoff decisions still loom for Bochy, Giants

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Playoff decisions still loom for Bochy, Giants

BOX SCORE

Since the Giants are going all Hamlet on the subject of Melky Cabreras October plans, it might be time to help prod them on other players.

Say, like announcing that Matt Cain will be in the playoff rotation. Sure, that seems obvious, but it isnt official until the Giants say its official, right?

In fact, Cabrera has commanded remarkably little of Bruce Bochys thoughts down the stretch. He is the afterthoughts afterthought, a distant maybe-in-an-emergency-situation in a series the Giants have not qualified to play in yet. Apparently, we obsess so he doesnt have to.

No, he spends far more time on the rest of the jigsaw puzzle, and has spent more time on this playoff team than his five others, which when you consider the margin of divisional victory is a bit odd. More decisions should, well, make themselves.

No, this is different than the others, and not just because we clinched so early, he said after Cain shepherded the side to a 6-0 shutout of the Arizona Diamondbacks. There are a lot of things weve got to make our minds up on, and we havent made our minds up on a lot of things yet.
RECAP: Giants 6, D'backs 0

Bochy has a way of speaking in large groups that leaves great gaps between what he says and how it can be interpreted. For example, there is no guarantee that Aubrey Huff will be on the postseason roster at all, despite the assumptions of the past several days. Nor can you bank heavily on Tim Lincecum in a place of rotation honor because of his history. Nor can they say 11 pitchers or 12, or whether theyll use three catchers.

Brian and I and the staff met today, talking about different things and different ways to go, Bochy said. And were going to keep doing it in San Diego and L.A.

The biggest reason for all the meetings is that he isnt really sure of a lot of things this time. The infield is pretty well set, one would think, and with Cabreras absence the three outfield spots as well.

But the pitching staff, the strength of the team, the engine that moves the transmission, that is a profound muddle.

Cain and Madison Bumgarner will almost surely go in Games 1 and 2, no matter who the opponent might be. Theyre pretty similar teams, Bochy said of the Washingtons and Cincinnatis, so were going to go with what we think is our best rotation no matter what. The team we play wont factor in a lot, and neither will the ballpark.

But Lincecum, whose last outing Tuesday was thoroughly shambolic, is not guaranteed Game 3 just on reputation. His next start is going to be pretty important, is all Bochy would give up as information, but it says volumes in its own way.

And there is still the matter of Barry Zito v. Ryan Vogelsong, and who might be more prepared to pitch Game 4 and who might be more prepared pick up the pieces of the Lincecum start if needed. And, if Bochy doesnt have the full confidence of his rotation, whether hell need to use eight relievers against either the Nationals or the Redlegs.

In short, Bochys days are full, and not full of Melky Cabrera, either. His chances of participation, minimal though they might be, seem far more hinged to bad fortune for one of the other outfielders than it does his own eagerness to return and atone. Cabrera is our fixation, not his.

RELATED: Melky to be left off Giants' playoff roster

Besides, he has plenty of fixations already without worrying about someones fitness to play a series he cant even be sure theyll ever play.

This ones different, he says with a weary sigh, a brief profanity, and one more in a series of full face-rubs. Thats the international sign of a man who will win his division by 12 games and still looks like hes five games out with seven to play.

Baseballs a lot more fun when the decisions take care of themselves.
Ray Ratto is a columnist for CSNBayArea.com

Offseason can be tense on other side of Giancarlo Stanton rumors

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USATI

Offseason can be tense on other side of Giancarlo Stanton rumors

SAN FRANCISCO — Just around dinner time on Monday, Tyler Beede got a call he had been waiting for. General manager Bobby Evans informed Beede, the Giants’ top pitching prospect, that he was being added to the 40-man roster, a significant step toward making his big league debut. Earlier that day, however, Beede’s phone brought him some unwanted news. 

Like most Giants fans, Beede woke up to a report out of South Florida that he was one of several names the Giants and Marlins had discussed in Giancarlo Stanton trade talks. For fans or team employees, it would be painful to give up a Beede or a Chris Shaw or a Joe Panik, but images of Stanton taking aim at the Coke bottle at AT&T Park would soon wash away most concerns. 

For players, the reality this time of year is much different. The Giants are the only organization that all of the rumored pieces have ever known. Panik is a New Yorker, but he and his wife have grown to love San Francisco. Beede and Shaw have spent years dreaming of debuting at AT&T Park and playing in front of sellout crowds. That makes the Hot Stove Season a particularly tense time of year. 

“I try to be a guy who doesn’t look those kinds of things up too frequently, but obviously I’m a normal guy, so I tend to dig into it a little bit more and see what’s going on and see what people are saying,” Beede said on this week’s Giants Insider Podcast. “It’s funny. I don't really know how to handle it. It’s my third year going through the trade deadline and trade talk. I’ve just go to keep telling myself it’s a realistic possibility and not to be shocked if anything were to come out or a trade were to be made.”

The rumor mill is nothing new for these players. Panik acknowledged several times during the season that he could be the odd man out. Shaw actually already once thought he got traded to Florida. For a few minutes at the 2016 deadline, Twitter had him as a key piece in the Matt Moore deal. The outfielder came out of a hotel bathroom right after the deadline to see two teammates staring at him in disbelief as Twitter rumors flew. 

Five minutes later, he got a call from Bobby Evans. “You’re still a Giant,” Evans told him. “Don’t take your jersey off.”

“It’s a little tense for sure,” Shaw said earlier this year. “It’s not something you can try to predict. You can have a feeling but that means nothing.”

Evans has always communicated to players and their agents that they can reach out any time they have a question or concern about what they might be hearing, but when it comes to getting on the phone himself, he treats the trade deadline and offseason differently. There’s more urgency to clear the air in July when players might have to take at-bats or throw pitches with rumors weighing on their minds. In the offseason, Evans will wait to reach out until deals are closer to being agreed upon. He tries not to worry as much about “hot stove banter,” he said. 

“In the offseason I think it’s a little less of an issue because a lot of things get thrown out there that don’t have validity,” he said. “We certainly don’t try to respond to every single rumor with an update because there are new rumors every hour, so it’s hard to keep up. A lot more names are mentioned this time of year.”

Players try to find different ways to get away from it all. Every year, several Giants prospects talk of playing golf during the trade deadline to stay away from MLB Network and their phones. For veterans, it’s often easiest to just take offseason vacations, and Panik planned to visit Europe with his wife. 

Beede has a somewhat unique distraction as rumors trickle out. He’s getting married on Saturday, which along with the holiday, has kept him busy all week. Still, he knows the rumors will be out there. 

“After a couple of days I start to just understand that (my) name is going to be in rumors or there may be things that people say or speculate,” he said. “(If) Bobby tells me something, or my agent says something, then I can start to maybe engage in it a little bit more. But as of right now, I’m just trying to go about my preparation and I’ll continue to enjoy being a San Francisco Giant.”

Projection system loves Giancarlo Stanton at AT&T Park

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AP

Projection system loves Giancarlo Stanton at AT&T Park

SAN FRANCISCO — The Giants have made a habit in recent winters of “kicking the tires,” so to speak, on as many free agents as possible. General manager Bobby Evans is committed to being thorough, but at times there is probably no need. 

Hitters have made no secret of the fact that they prefer friendlier confines, and if you’re a power hitter, you’re going to ask Evans for a significantly larger check to play 81 of your games at the harshest power park in the majors. That’s what makes Giancarlo Stanton, readily available via trade, so intriguing. But would Stanton be fully immune to the realities of AT&T Park?

The numbers, at least in a small sample, suggest he would. Stanton has played 27 games in San Francisco and taken 108 at-bats. He has nine homers, 11 doubles and a triple. His .676 slugging percentage at AT&T Park isn’t far off his mark at Coors Field (.714), and his 1.048 OPS is higher than his OPS during the 2017 season, when he hit 59 homers. 

The damage has been done in limited time, but the Giants clearly believe it’s fully sustainable, and a recent study done by ESPN’s Dan Szymborski backs that up. Szymborski ran his ZiPS projection system to estimate Stanton’s stats over the next 10 years for a variety of suitors. The numbers in orange and black are overwhelming. 

The projections have Stanton at 46.2 WAR over the next 10 seasons, including 7.1 in 2018 and 6.8 in 2019, the two seasons the organization should be focused on given Madison Bumgarner’s contract situation. ZiPS projects Stanton at 46 homers next season if he plays for the Giants, followed by 43, 42, 39, 35 over the following four years. For comparison’s sake, Brandon Belt led the Giants in homers each of the last two seasons and he has 35 total during that span. 

Any sort of projection system needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt, especially with a player who has had injury issues in the past. But ZiPS believes Stanton -- who plays in a huge park already -- is a rarity, the kind of power hitter who can keep crushing well into his 30’s and put up huge numbers even if he is limited by the realities of getting older and getting hurt. Szymborski’s projections have Stanton playing just 102 games in 2025, but he’s still projected to hit 23 homers, 20 doubles and post an OPS+ of 121. Even in the 10th year of the projections, ZiPS has Stanton down for 16 homers. 

There are no sure things in this game, but as Evans continues to chase a blockbuster deal, he can be confident that Stanton is one player who should be able to provide power for years to come, no matter what AT&T Park does to hold hitters down.