Giants

Two key Giants prospects making noise in the Arizona Fall League

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USATSI

Two key Giants prospects making noise in the Arizona Fall League

Baseball Rumor Twitter is here and it’s only going to get worse. The good news: there’s still a little over one week of real baseball left in the Arizona Fall League. With time winding down, two Giants prospects that should play a role in the team’s near future one way or another, are putting together numbers to notice. 

Tyler Beede took the mound for the third time in the AFL on Tuesday night and was nearly perfect outside of giving up a moonshot to Brewers prospect Monte Harrison. Beede pitched five innings (his longest outing of his three starts), allowed four hits and one run. The 24-year-old also struck out five (the most of his three starts) and walked one batter.

For the second straight start, Beede pounded the strike zone. In his 63 pitches, 46 were thrown for strikes, good for a 73 percent strike rate while sitting between 90 and 95 miles per hour with his fastball. After a rough debut in which Beede walked three and allowed five earned runs in two innings pitched, Beede has now struck out nine to one walk in nine innings pitched his last two starts.

Before looking at possible trades, the Giants’ first four spots in their rotation seem locked up for the second straight season, with the fifth and final spot being the big question. Ty Blach has proved worthy the last two season and Chris Stratton earned a long spring training look with his time in San Francisco this year as well.

But, if Beede’s last two showings carry over to the spring, the team’s top pitching prospect and former first-round pick, will add his name to the competition in the starting staff. 

Steven Duggar goes deep

Brian Sabean recently made it clear the Giants’ three main positions in need of an upgrade are center field, third base and the bullpen. The team will be linked to free agent options in center field — Lorenzo Cain (doesn’t make sense) and trade options — Billy Hamilton (makes sense) and Jason Heyward (already debunked by the Giants), but their top young in-house option is showing the skill set he brings to the table when healthy in the AFL. 

Steven Duggar hit his first home run in the desert while going 2-for-4 and stealing a base for the fourth straight game on Monday. The speed has always been there and is an area of need for the Giants, but the power is really encouraging. 

Duggar stands 6-foot-2 and 195 pounds. In three minor league seasons, he’s hit 17 home runs. There’s more power in him than those numbers suggest. 

The Giants have already started working on Duggar’s bat path and it’s evident in his deep blast to right-center field. Duggar is now on a five-game hitting streak where he is batting .450 (9-for-20). Overall in 15 games, Duggar is slashing .286/.388/.375 with nine stolen bases. 

San Francisco needs to get younger and more athletic. Duggar is tied for the lead in stolen bases in the AFL and has the athleticism to play in AT&T Park’s huge outfield. Instead of once again paying aging outfielders, project ahead with fleet feet running the show. 

Offseason can be tense on other side of Giancarlo Stanton rumors

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USATI

Offseason can be tense on other side of Giancarlo Stanton rumors

SAN FRANCISCO — Just around dinner time on Monday, Tyler Beede got a call he had been waiting for. General manager Bobby Evans informed Beede, the Giants’ top pitching prospect, that he was being added to the 40-man roster, a significant step toward making his big league debut. Earlier that day, however, Beede’s phone brought him some unwanted news. 

Like most Giants fans, Beede woke up to a report out of South Florida that he was one of several names the Giants and Marlins had discussed in Giancarlo Stanton trade talks. For fans or team employees, it would be painful to give up a Beede or a Chris Shaw or a Joe Panik, but images of Stanton taking aim at the Coke bottle at AT&T Park would soon wash away most concerns. 

For players, the reality this time of year is much different. The Giants are the only organization that all of the rumored pieces have ever known. Panik is a New Yorker, but he and his wife have grown to love San Francisco. Beede and Shaw have spent years dreaming of debuting at AT&T Park and playing in front of sellout crowds. That makes the Hot Stove Season a particularly tense time of year. 

“I try to be a guy who doesn’t look those kinds of things up too frequently, but obviously I’m a normal guy, so I tend to dig into it a little bit more and see what’s going on and see what people are saying,” Beede said on this week’s Giants Insider Podcast. “It’s funny. I don't really know how to handle it. It’s my third year going through the trade deadline and trade talk. I’ve just go to keep telling myself it’s a realistic possibility and not to be shocked if anything were to come out or a trade were to be made.”

The rumor mill is nothing new for these players. Panik acknowledged several times during the season that he could be the odd man out. Shaw actually already once thought he got traded to Florida. For a few minutes at the 2016 deadline, Twitter had him as a key piece in the Matt Moore deal. The outfielder came out of a hotel bathroom right after the deadline to see two teammates staring at him in disbelief as Twitter rumors flew. 

Five minutes later, he got a call from Bobby Evans. “You’re still a Giant,” Evans told him. “Don’t take your jersey off.”

“It’s a little tense for sure,” Shaw said earlier this year. “It’s not something you can try to predict. You can have a feeling but that means nothing.”

Evans has always communicated to players and their agents that they can reach out any time they have a question or concern about what they might be hearing, but when it comes to getting on the phone himself, he treats the trade deadline and offseason differently. There’s more urgency to clear the air in July when players might have to take at-bats or throw pitches with rumors weighing on their minds. In the offseason, Evans will wait to reach out until deals are closer to being agreed upon. He tries not to worry as much about “hot stove banter,” he said. 

“In the offseason I think it’s a little less of an issue because a lot of things get thrown out there that don’t have validity,” he said. “We certainly don’t try to respond to every single rumor with an update because there are new rumors every hour, so it’s hard to keep up. A lot more names are mentioned this time of year.”

Players try to find different ways to get away from it all. Every year, several Giants prospects talk of playing golf during the trade deadline to stay away from MLB Network and their phones. For veterans, it’s often easiest to just take offseason vacations, and Panik planned to visit Europe with his wife. 

Beede has a somewhat unique distraction as rumors trickle out. He’s getting married on Saturday, which along with the holiday, has kept him busy all week. Still, he knows the rumors will be out there. 

“After a couple of days I start to just understand that (my) name is going to be in rumors or there may be things that people say or speculate,” he said. “(If) Bobby tells me something, or my agent says something, then I can start to maybe engage in it a little bit more. But as of right now, I’m just trying to go about my preparation and I’ll continue to enjoy being a San Francisco Giant.”

Projection system loves Giancarlo Stanton at AT&T Park

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AP

Projection system loves Giancarlo Stanton at AT&T Park

SAN FRANCISCO — The Giants have made a habit in recent winters of “kicking the tires,” so to speak, on as many free agents as possible. General manager Bobby Evans is committed to being thorough, but at times there is probably no need. 

Hitters have made no secret of the fact that they prefer friendlier confines, and if you’re a power hitter, you’re going to ask Evans for a significantly larger check to play 81 of your games at the harshest power park in the majors. That’s what makes Giancarlo Stanton, readily available via trade, so intriguing. But would Stanton be fully immune to the realities of AT&T Park?

The numbers, at least in a small sample, suggest he would. Stanton has played 27 games in San Francisco and taken 108 at-bats. He has nine homers, 11 doubles and a triple. His .676 slugging percentage at AT&T Park isn’t far off his mark at Coors Field (.714), and his 1.048 OPS is higher than his OPS during the 2017 season, when he hit 59 homers. 

The damage has been done in limited time, but the Giants clearly believe it’s fully sustainable, and a recent study done by ESPN’s Dan Szymborski backs that up. Szymborski ran his ZiPS projection system to estimate Stanton’s stats over the next 10 years for a variety of suitors. The numbers in orange and black are overwhelming. 

The projections have Stanton at 46.2 WAR over the next 10 seasons, including 7.1 in 2018 and 6.8 in 2019, the two seasons the organization should be focused on given Madison Bumgarner’s contract situation. ZiPS projects Stanton at 46 homers next season if he plays for the Giants, followed by 43, 42, 39, 35 over the following four years. For comparison’s sake, Brandon Belt led the Giants in homers each of the last two seasons and he has 35 total during that span. 

Any sort of projection system needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt, especially with a player who has had injury issues in the past. But ZiPS believes Stanton -- who plays in a huge park already -- is a rarity, the kind of power hitter who can keep crushing well into his 30’s and put up huge numbers even if he is limited by the realities of getting older and getting hurt. Szymborski’s projections have Stanton playing just 102 games in 2025, but he’s still projected to hit 23 homers, 20 doubles and post an OPS+ of 121. Even in the 10th year of the projections, ZiPS has Stanton down for 16 homers. 

There are no sure things in this game, but as Evans continues to chase a blockbuster deal, he can be confident that Stanton is one player who should be able to provide power for years to come, no matter what AT&T Park does to hold hitters down.