It might actually take some Luck after all.
Andrew Luck, Heisman favorite in August, hoping to seal the deal in November -- well, his fans are hoping, he doesnt seem to be concerned with it -- but all of a sudden the consensus best player in college football might not be the frontrunner for the award given to the best player in college football.
Lucks numbers dont match up with some of the other QB contenders, but you know that. And you know why. And you know it has very little to do with Andrew.
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To say his weapons are limited is like saying fast food is bad for you. Everybody accepts it, but few this side of Morgan Spurlock really understand the scope of it. Put Luck in Oklahoma States system or given him Oklahomas pass catchers, and the numbers would be, well, supersized..
HEISMAN WATCH: Meet Robert Griffin III
Stanfords top receiving targets over the last month: Griff Whalen (23 catches), a former walk-on who squeezes every once of ability out of his 6-1, 185-pound frame but possesses zero breakaway ability; Ryan Hewitt (15), a 240-pound H-back; Levine Toilolo (14), a lumbering 6-8 freak of nature; and Coby Fleener (11), a big-play tight end but a tight end nonetheless.
To steal a phrase from a drunken frat boy who probably does not attend Stanfordthe Cardinal has no RAC.
I dont have any way of checking, but Id venture to guess a substantial portion of Robert Griffin IIIs statistical fortune comes from Kendall Wrights Run After Catch totals. Ditto Brandon Weeden courtesy of Justin Blackmon, and Landry Jones thanks to Ryan Broyles (pre-ACL) and Kenny Stills. Just to scratch the surface.
The majority of Lucks passes that are completed 20 yards downfield result in 20-yard gains. Even his supposed big play guy, Chris Owusu, wasnt living up to that moniker when he was healthy. Owusus 10.7 yards per reception ranks 309th in the nation.
And dont even get me started on the drops. Fleener -- an All-American caliber talent -- had four of them in a recent two-game stretch, including an easy long touchdown grab against Oregon State. Toilolo and freshman Ty Montgomery both dropped surefire scores against Cal. Whats more, half of Lucks eight interceptions this season came on plays where the receiver either blatantly muffed the ball or simply fell down.
Factor in Stanfords power run mentality and it becomes all too obvious that the statistical playing field is far from level.
That said, Ive watched the same games you have. I realize that Andrew has been solid, steady, cool, reliable ... but he hasnt been magical. He hasnt blown us away. He hasnt had his Heisman moment.
Does he deserve the Trophy based on what hes done to this point? Probably not. Griffin and Wisconsins Russell Wilson have a better case, and Alabama running back Trent Richardson might as well.
But theres still time. One game, against a Top-25 team that just happens to have an immense national following, at home, Thanksgiving weekend. Luck can vault himself back into the favorite-status by beating Notre Dame, and beating them with flare. One Heisman moment is all it takes to make this a one-horse race.
Because when all is said and done, I believe the voters -- and the nation, for that matter -- want Luck to win. He is the Golden Boy, he is Peyton 2.0, he is ability meets humility, he is all that is good about college sports.
Furthermore, I would submit that this year -- unlike 2009 -- tie goes to the Cardinal. Remember, the voting system is weighted; three points for a first-place vote, two for a second-place vote, one for a third-place vote. While Luck might not be everybodys No. 1 right now, hes probably still on just about everybodys ballot. Ironically, its the one time all season statistics might work in his favor.
And we all know, a little Luck never hurt anybody.