Sharks wish they had Winnipeg's luck with the puck


Sharks wish they had Winnipeg's luck with the puck

The Winnipeg Jets have not had the puck much this season, but have kept it out of their net and put it in their opposition’s.

When adjusting for blowouts and different arenas, the Jets are 20th and 21st in the major possession metrics (corsi and fenwick, respectively), according to Puck on Net. Despite that, they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest and scored the eighth-most, and are second in the Central Division. 

The San Jose Sharks, meanwhile, are one of the three best possession teams by both metrics when adjusting for score and venue. They’ve allowed the fewest goals per game in the league, but have only scored the second-fewest, and are five points back in the Pacific Division.  

That’s a pretty stark difference, and much of it comes down to luck. 

One way to measure luck is with a statistic known as PDO, which sums a team’s save and shooting percentages. The “Mendoza line” is 100, with teams standing above the line considered lucky and teams sitting below unlucky. 

The Jets’ PDO during five-on-five play, which comprises the vast majority of a team’s minutes, is 102.67, the second-highest in the league, according to Corsica Hockey. The Sharkss is 98.04, the sixth-lowest.

In some ways, the Jets are making their own luck. They boast one of the most skilled forward groups, and it’s reasonable to expect a team led by Patrik Laine to be one of the league’s best at finishing. Connor Hellebuyck, who’s seized the starting goalie job from free agent signing Steve Mason, has a history of success in college and the AHL.

Expecting 11 players to convert on over 10 percent of their chances and Hellebuyck to exceed his career averages, as has happened in Winnipeg this season, is another matter entirely. 

Similarly, the Sharks are at least somewhat responsible for their own misfortune. The team’s too talented to continue scoring on only 6.01 percent of their five-on-five shots, but it’d be unrealistic to expect them to convert at the same level as a much more offensively gifted club like Winnipeg.

Both teams are likely due for some amount of regression to the mean. The Sharks’ strong possession game bodes well when they’re luckier, while the Jets’ lesser numbers do not when they hit a bump in the road. 

The cliche holds that it’s better to be lucky than good. The Sharks and Jets have shown, however, that a team can’t be good without being a little lucky.

Oilers mismanagement opens window of opportunity for Sharks


Oilers mismanagement opens window of opportunity for Sharks

The Edmonton Oilers made the postseason for the first time in a decade last season on the backs of Hart Trophy winner Connor McDavid and Vezina finalist Cam Talbot. They seemed poised for a Stanley Cup run this season, and many more in the years to come.

McDavid’s been his stellar self this season, but Talbot it’s in the midst of his worst season, after starting 73 games last year.  This, simply, is not the team that eliminated the Sharks in April.

Given their last two summers, though, their fall has been entirely predictable.

In the last two offseasons, the Oilers sacrificed skill for sandpaper. Out went former first round picks Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Nail Yakupov, and in came Adam Larsson, Milan Lucic, Kris Russell, and Ryan Strome.

Hall (11) and Eberle and (13) would be fourth and first, respectively, on Edmonton in goal-scoring this year, while Yakupov has more than, or as many goals as all but five Oilers.

Those moves have left Edmonton’s depth decimated, forcing them to rely on McDavid, whose scored or assisted on about 38 percent of their goals this season. With McDavid on the ice during five-on-five play, the Oilers have scored 55.77 percent of the goals, according to Corsica Hockey.

With him off of it, that drops to 46.25 percent.

After years in the league’s basement, the pressure to get rid of the Oilers’ “underachieving” top picks was strong, especially from the Edmonton media. In the pursuit of being tough to play against, though, they’ve gotten worse.

Under Todd McLellan, they’re one of the league’s best possession teams, but they don’t have nearly enough skill outside of McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Without a Vezina-level performance from a likely exhausted Talbot, they don’t have the defense necessary to mitigate his down year, despite trading away a top winger (Hall) to shore up the blueline.

McDavid’s in the third and final year of his rookie deal, meaning Edmonton’s window to surround him with high-end, highly-paid skill players was limited. The Oilers have essentially wasted one of the best team-building opportunities in recent memory, and sit eight points out of a playoff spot as of this writing.

That’s left open a window of opportunity for the Sharks, as well as the rest of the division, this season and potentially beyond. McDavid will make $12.5 million against the salary cap next season, and the Oilers already have at least $52 million in salary commitments each of the next three seasons.

A postseason run through the Pacific Division looks far less daunting without the game’s best player involved. Now, it’s up to the Sharks to take advantage.


Sharks lose in Vancouver for first time since 2012


Sharks lose in Vancouver for first time since 2012


VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sam Gagner scored at 4:34 of overtime and the Vancouver Canucks snapped a four-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory over the San Jose Sharks on Friday night.

Gagner beat Martin Jones with a nice backhand move on a breakaway for his fourth of the season after a feed from Alexander Edler. It was Gagner's first goal in nine games.

Markus Granlund scored twice and Brock Boeser also had a goal in regulation for Vancouver (15-14-4). Henrik Sedin and brother Daniel Sedin each added three assists. Jacob Markstrom made 34 saves.

Brent Burns scored two goals and Marcus Sorenson had one for San Jose (17-10-4). Martin Jones stopped 36 shots for the Sharks, who were playing their second game in two nights after Thursday's 3-2 road victory over the Calgary Flames.

San Jose had won 11 straight at Rogers Arena dating back to the Canucks' last victory on home ice over their Pacific Division rivals all the way back on Jan. 21, 2012. Vancouver was 0-9-2 over that stretch while getting outscored 41-14.

Leading 3-2 through 40 minutes, the Canucks nearly restored their two-goal lead four minutes into the third, but Jones stretched to make a great pad save on Thomas Vanek.

The Sharks mustered only one shot through the first 13 minutes of the final period, but got the equalizer with 5:49 left in regulation when Burns' point shot went off the skate of Canucks defenseman Alex Biega in front and beat Markstrom for his second of the night, sixth of the season and fifth in five games.

Coming off Wednesday's embarrassing 7-1 loss at home to Nashville, the Canucks stormed out of the gate against the Sharks and led 2-1 after the first period before Boeser stretched the lead to two.

The NHL's rookie scoring leader ripped a shot over Jones' shoulder on the power play at 11:56 of the second for his 17th, moments after slicing through the Sharks' defense and ringing a shot off the post.

San Jose got that one back with 1:44 left in the period when former Canucks forward Jannik Hansen started a sequence that ended with Sorenson netting his first past Markstrom.

Already minus five regulars, including two-thirds of their top line with Bo Horvat (broken foot) and Sven Baertschi (broken jaw) out long-term, the Canucks announced Friday morning that shutdown defenseman Christopher Tanev will miss two to three weeks with a groin strain.

Granlund, who came in with one goal in his last 12 games, opened the scoring 44 seconds in on the power play. Daniel Sedin redirected a slap pass in the slot from Henrik Sedin right to Granlund at the side of the net, and he beat Jones between the legs for his fifth.

Vancouver could have easily been up by two or three moments later as the Canucks led 10-0 in shots after just five minutes.

San Jose, which came in 7 for 21 on the power play over its last four games to climb from tied for 24th overall to tied for 11th, tested Markstrom five times on its first man-advantage opportunity before finally breaking through after Vancouver took another penalty.

The Sharks won an offensive-zone faceoff back to Burns, who snapped his fifth past Markstrom at 10:45.

Markstrom stopped San Jose's Chris Tierney on a short-handed breakaway later in the period before Granlund scored his second of the night seconds after the penalty expired. Daniel Sedin's initial shot fell at the top of the crease to Henrik Sedin, who tapped it over for Granlund to put into a wide-open net at 14:27.

NOTES: Canucks center Brandon Sutter and defenseman Erik Gudbranson remain sidelined with upper-body injuries. Vancouver is also without wing Derek Dorsett, who ended his playing career late last month due to spinal problems. ... San Jose forward Joel Ward got an assist on Burns' second goal of the night for his 300th career point in his 700th NHL game.


Sharks: Monday night at Edmonton.

Canucks: Sunday at home against Calgary.