Let’s say things had gotten crazy towards the end of the NFL season. Maybe the Pats lose their game to the Ravens in Week 14, Derek Carr never gets hurt and the Raiders end up grabbing the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Would anybody really consider the Raiders the team to beat?
That’s kind of what’s going on in the NBA right now. The Celtics are first in the Eastern Conference, a spot they could very conceivably hold at season’s end, yet there isn’t even a drop of “this is the year” talk from even if their most loyal fans. That’s all because of LeBron James (in the East, at least) and that’s probably warranted.
Yet there’s a reason the Cavaliers aren’t running away with the East this season and it’s greater than the fact that James-led teams typically don’t go for broke in the regular season; though LeBron has reached the NBA Finals in six straight seasons, only two of them saw him do so as a top seed.
That reason is, in large part, injuries. Kevin Love has underwhelmed since his return from knee surgery (13.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in a little over 26 minutes a night compared to 20.0 points and 11.1 rebounds in nearly 32 minutes a night before the surgery), while Kyle Korver has been in and out with a left foot issue. The team considers J.R. Smith to be in “training camp” in his games back from a fractured thumb.
This is also by far the worst defensive Cavaliers team since James’ return in 2014-15. Cleveland allows 106.8 per game, which ranks 21st in the league. In each of the past two seasons, they allowed an average of 97.9 points.
All that said, the NBA often boils down to star talent, and James and Kyrie Irving is probably better on paper, with whatever flotsam and jetsam you give them, than anything else you can jot down in the East. It was a similar story when the Heat finished with the No. 2 seed in three of James’ four seasons there. They steamrolled the No. 1 seed Bulls in five games in 2010-11 and beat the top-seeded Pacers in six in 2013-14.
Yet the supporting cast is diminished and so too has been the team’s performance. With a less-than-healthy Love, the Cavaliers aren’t nearly as intimidating. All this while the Celtics have won seven of eight. That’s not to say the Celtics don’t have their share of fool’s gold. Of the aforementioned seven wins, only three came vs. teams in line for a playoff spot and the loss came to a terrible 76ers team, albeit without Isaiah Thomas.
Boston Celtics
Yet would it really be so out of the question that a healthy Celtics team, with Thomas in a career year, Marcus Smart continuing to emerge and Al Horford beefing up a roster that was one-and-done in years past, could give a vulnerable Cavaliers team a run for its money, especially with a home-court advantage?
Maybe not, and maybe it will be a moot point by the time late April rolls around, but for now, can’t we read into the Celtics as contenders just a little bit?