Putting Jayson Tatum's Summer League performance in context with recent years

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This news may already be out there, but Jayson Tatum has looked good in NBA Summer League play thus far.

Coupled with the anticipated progression of second-year pro/kids-table-party-thrower/people’s champ Jaylen Brown, the performance that Tatum has turned in (18.7 points and 9.7 rebounds per game in Utah; 19.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per game in Vegas) has created a hype train so loud that within a few days Celtics fans might need a reminder that the team also signed Gordon Hayward this offseason. 

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Naturally, the reaction to any strong Summer League performance is to say it doesn’t matter because it’s Summer League. That’s why the responses to this brilliant tweet were an absolute tire fire. 

But can Summer League prowess be an indication of things to come in the coming regular season? In the case of Celtics players, the answer is a resounding “not really.” 

Of the team’s top Summer League performers since 2010, only Kelly Olynyk in 2014 (his second Summer League stint) went on to average 10 or more points per game that regular season. 

Especially in the case of what’s become an increasingly deep (and contending) Celtics team, the minutes simply haven’t been there for rookies and second-year players in the regular season. 

Still, as you’ll see below, Tatum’s numbers are better than theirs. Here’s a look at those performers. 

Terry Rozier, 2016

SUMMER LEAGUE: 3 GP, 21.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.0 APG (Vegas)
                                  3 GP, 19.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.0 APG (Utah)
REGULAR SEASON: 74 GP, 17.1 MIN, 5.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.8 APG

Jaylen Brown, 2015 

SUMMER LEAGUE: 5 GP, 16.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.2 APG (Vegas)
                                  1 GP, 16.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.0 APG (Utah)
REGULAR SEASON: 78 GP, 17.2 MIN, 6.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 0.8 APG 

Terry Rozier, 2015

SUMMER LEAGUE: 3 GP, 12.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.7 APG (Utah)
                                  5 GP, 12.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.0 APG (Vegas)
REGULAR SEASON: 39 GP, 8.0 MIN, 1.8 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 0.9 APG

Marcus Smart, 2015

SUMMER LEAGUE: 2 GP, 24.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 7.5 APG (Utah)
                                  3 GP, 10.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 2.0 APG (Vegas)
REGULAR SEASON: 61 GP, 27.3 MIN, 9.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.0 APG 

Kelly Olynyk, 2014

SUMMER LEAGUE: 4 GP, 17.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.0 APG (Orlando)
REGULAR SEASON: 64 GP, 22.3 MIN, 10.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.7 APG

Marcus Smart, 2014 

SUMMER LEAGUE: 5 GP, 14.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.2 APG (Orlando)
REGULAR SEASON: 67 GP, 27.0 MIN, 7.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.1 APG

Kelly Olynyk, 2013

SUMMER LEAGUE: 5 GP, 18.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.4 APG (Vegas)
REGULAR SEASON: 70 GP, 20.0 MIN, 8.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.6 APG 

Jared Sullinger, 2012  

SUMMER LEAGUE: 4 GP, 13.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1 APG (Orlando)
                                  5 GP, 11.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 0.4 APG (Vegas)
REGULAR SEASON: 45 GP, 19.8 MIN, 6.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 0.8 APG 

E’Twaun Moore, 2012

SUMMER LEAGUE: 5 GP, 13.8 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.8 APG (Orlando) 
                                  2 GP, 17 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2 APG (Vegas)
REGULAR SEASON: 38 GP, 8.7 MIN, 2.9 PPG, 0.9 RPG, 0.9 APG

Luke Harangody, 2010

SUMMER LEAGUE: 5 GP, 16.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.6 APG (Orlando)
REGULAR SEASON: 28 GP, 8.6 MIN, 2.3 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.4 APG (traded to Cavaliers mid-season)

Of course, none of these players (perhaps with the exception of Brown) had the pedigree that Tatum has. Tatum was chosen with the third overall pick with the expectation that he would be a star offensively. He’s certainly been that in the summer league, but between having to fight for minutes and the C’s already having their top two scorers already established, no one actually expects Tatum’s eye-opening performance to be repeated in the regular season just yet. 

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