Curran's Patriots-Broncos preview review

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DENVER – Forget Manning vs. Brady. A month ago, this showdown was all about an historically brilliant offense against a stunningly effective defense. And it was potentially going to be a dance between unbeaten. The Patriots offense has since been staggered personnel-wise, the Broncos have absorbed a pair of losses and Denver actually may be better off without Manning, given the play of Brock Osweiler in his first start. If the Patriots do somehow get to 16-0, a win at Denver in the condition they’re in will be a monumental achievement.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

The Patriots are going to line up against the league’s fastest and most daunting defense without Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Dion Lewis. Those three – and Gronk, LeGarrette Blount and Tom Brady – combined to make the Patriots’ offense as explosive and hard-to-deal with as any Patriots offense has ever been. Now? The tempo, the run-after-catch element, the ability to attack all across the field and at multiple levels is erased quite a bit. So much of what the Patriots were doing was based on timing, precision and an understanding of what Brady was expecting. That’s just not going to exist with Brandon LaFell, Chris Harper, Matt Slater and KeShawn Martin at wideout. The Broncos should be able to line up with Chris Harris and Aqib Talib and erase the wide receiver threats. While Gronk is a handful for any defense, Denver should be able to send multiple defenders his way to dissuade Brady from going there. Or to convince Brady to make contested throws into tight windows. If the Patriots can get something rolling on the ground, that will help take some heat off of Brady to be perfect. The Broncos, though, are first in the NFL In rushing average (3.51) and first in the league (by a lot) in yards allowed per game (284). Denver gets you with speed up front and at the linebacker level. Von Miller is a terror as a pass rusher off the right edge, so his matchup with Sebastian Vollmer bears watching. Danny Trevathan is a very fast playmaking linebacker. TJ Ward is a headhunting safety the Patriots have experience against. It’s just not realistic to expect the Patriots to go up and down the field with so many key players out. Not against this group.

The Patriots started hot and then – after having a few goes at down the field throws and getting absolutely nothing out of it – they went double-extra conservative for the end of the half and the whole third quarter. Then at the start of the fourth, Brady bought a bunch of time on a third down and finally got an easy throw – a wheel route to Brandon Bolden that turned into a 63-yard touchdown. Certainly, the elements impacted things. But there wasn’t much there in the running game and there weren’t a lot of easy throws either. At all. The Patriots played field position for a big chunk of the night after getting a pair of early touchdowns that Denver was complicit in. It wasn’t until the special teams gaffe of Chris Harper that put wind in Denver’s sails that the Patriots had to get aggressive. Once Denver narrowed it to 21-17, the Patriots tried to get separation. They (figuratively) died trying as Rob Gronkowski got hurt on a first down throw with less than three minutes left. The Patriots were only able to run for 39 yards. Brady couldn’t get locked in with Scott Chandler, and it wasn’t from lack of trying. He threw 11 times to the big tight end and got just five completions for 58 yards out of it. Brady had decent protection for much of the night, but the need to hold the ball and wait for people to uncover resulted in him taking some huge hits. Brady finished 23 for 42 for 280 yards and three touchdowns but he seemed harried for most of the game. It’s testimony to his mental toughness that he was able to – without Gronk – still get the Patriots downfield for the field goal that sent the game to overtime.

WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL

Last week, the Broncos went into Chicago and got its most efficient offensive performance of the season with Osweiler running things. He went 20 for 27 and didn’t throw a pick, but the real keys in this were the successful use of the tight ends in the passing game and the running of Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson. Denver ran 36 times for 170 yards and 11 of Osweiler’s 20 completions went to tight ends. Even with speedy Emanuel Sanders coming back this week, it sounds like the Broncos will stay a little conservative. "We went through a month or so where we were a three-wide football team, a four-wide football team … Now we've settled down,” said Denver coach Gary Kubiak. The Patriots have been outstanding against the run and have dealt with speed backs (LeSean McCoy) and power backs (Chris Ivory). They should be able to deal with the Hillman-Anderson pairing. That will then put the heat on Osweiler to perform cleanly against a confusing defense. The Patriots won’t be getting Jamie Collins back for this one, but his time away has shown the Patriots what they can expect from Jerod Mayo and Jonathan Freeny. With multiple tight end sets for Denver, the Patriots should match up pretty well with their fleet of safeties. It’s the bigger speed guys – like Demaryius Thomas – who are a concern. The Thomas-Sanders duo is a tough handle for any secondary. Osweiler has to play cautiously in this one. The Patriots will try to confuse him and force him into bad decisions. Osweiler needs to make a priority of protecting the football and taking sacks when he has doubt. In tight games, mistakes are magnified. Can Osweiler avoid them?

The Patriots wore down against the run. The loss of Donta Hightower just before halftime was a massive loss as the Broncos were able to make hay with their stretch runs against the Patriots front. They wound up with 179 yards on 32 carries including the game-winning 49-yard run in overtime by C.J. Anderson. Osweiler ran things perfectly. He had a blip in the fourth where he started to get wild but on the last touchdown drive of regulation, he was outstanding. His accuracy downfield was outstanding. Logan Ryan was all over Demaryius Thomas most of the game but Thomas did pull in a key 36-yard reception in the fourth. Malcolm Butler dueled with Emmanuel Sanders and had some outstanding plays but Sanders also won down the stretch. If the Patriots defense is going to play at the level it has for most of the season, it needs its young linebackers to return.

THE KICKING GAME

Denver kicker Brandon McManus and Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski are two of the best in the league, both having missed just once. Both of the misses were from 50-plus. One area to watch this week is the Patriots punt returns. With Danny Amendola banged up and Julian Edelman out, Chris Harper took the punt fielding duties last week and there were no slip-ups but he didn’t catch the ball as smoothly as you’d hope. Fielding punts at altitude can be a little different. Both teams are solid in kick coverage.

As feared, the inexperience of Harper figured into this one. The Patriots played field position for much of the game and were having plenty of success doing so. Until Harper gave Denver a short field with a muffed punt that changed the tenor of things. McManus had a miss from 47 yards out; Gostkowski tied the game from 47 at the end of regulation. Denver punter Britton Colquitt’s poor punt in the first quarter helped set up the Patriots first touchdown. 

PATRIOTS MEDICAL REPORT

OUT: CB Justin Coleman (hand), WR Julian Edelman (foot); DOUBTFUL: Jamie Collins (illness); QUESTIONABLE: WR Danny Amendola (knee), WR Keshawn Martin (hamstring); TE Michael Williams (knee); PROBABLE: DT Alan Branch (elbow), T Marcus Cannon (toe) G Tre Jackson (knee), DE Chandler Jones (abdomen)

The Patriots lost Dont'a Hightower to a knee injury just before halftime and Gronk in the fourth quarter. Both were huge losses.


BRONCOS MEDICAL REPORT

OUT: QB Peyton Manning (foot), LB DeMarcus Ware (back); QUESTIONABLE: G Evan Mathis (back); PROBABLE: TE Owen Daniels (knee), TE Virgil Green (finger), T Ryan Harris (knee), C Matt Paradis (finger), WR Emmanuel Sanders (ankle, finger), T Michael Schofield (finger), DE Antonio Smith (hip), DE Vance Walker (shoulder)

T.J. Ward, Louis Vazquez and Sylvester Williams all left with injuries. Denver did a terrific job covering up for those losses.


GAME WITHIN THE GAME

Field position and the kicking game. The Patriots have been able to get some special teams kick starts from their return game this season. They are going to be diminished in the punt return game this week with no Danny Amendola and, likely, Chris Harper fielding punts. Also, with this figuring to be a low-scoring game, fourth down takes on greater importance in trying to flip the field after three-and-outs and making decisions on trying long field goals or taking a chance on pinning an offense deep.

The Patriots were decidedly winning the field position game until the final quarter. And that’s when things went awry. Ryan Allen punted 10 times and put five inside the 20 including one that he dropped at the Denver 1.

BRONCOS GOTTA STOP

Rob Gronkowski. With the defense they have, the Broncos should be able to match up and play effectively on the outside against the Patriots mishmash of wideouts. They are fast enough to bottle up LeGarrette Blount. The guy that can beat one and sometimes two when sent his way is Gronk. If Denver holds him down – and all their attention should be focused on doing that – the Patriots will be in for it.

Well, they stopped him. Eventually. Not before Gronk could do his share of damage with a first-quarter touchdown, though. There will be a lot of talk about whether the hit on Gronk was low and dirty. It is the nature of the Gronk, though, that requires he be hit low. If you go up top, you go for a ride.

PATRIOTS GOTTA STOP

Von Miller. One of the fastest and most explosive rushers in football, Miller has six sacks so far this season. DeMarcus Ware is working back from injury so the focus could and should be on Miller. He’ll work off the right edge. The Patriots have been rotating guys all over the place but figure Sebastian Vollmer will get reps against Miller and will probably need some help at times.

Miller was a nuisance. He had five quarterback hits and a sack and was buzzing around Brady all night.


DON'T BE SURPRISED IF...

This game will feature the most adversity the Patriots have had to deal with all season. On the road, at altitude, at night, the only “go-to” offensive weapon being Rob Gronkowski, an offensive line that’s coming off a tough night and a very aggressive defense. This one will be difficult.

It certainly was.

THAT SUMS IT UP PATRIOTS STYLE

“What they do they do [defensively], they’re confident in it and I’m sure they’re very well-schooled in what their responsibilities are. You don’t see a lot of confusion or pre-snap meetings out there about who’s going to do what. They seem to always pretty much know very quickly when the offense lines up where to go, what to do and then they play aggressively. I’d say it’s probably fair. They might be playing a little bit faster. They have good team speed at linebacker. Those guys are fast. The inside linebackers are fast, outside linebackers are fast – [Brandon] Marshall and [Danny] Trevathan. And they have edge speed with [DeMarcus] Ware and Miller and [Shaquil] Barrett and those guys, so they all run well.” – Bill Belichick on the speed of the Denver defense.

Denver locked things down pretty well and their decision to leave linebackers on Chandler, enticing Brady into throwing repeatedly toward the sideline for Chandler with little to show for it.

THAT SUMS IT UP BRONCOS STYLE

“They said that they had a lot of people hurt and then he [Brady] throws for 270 [yards] last game and threw it to seven different receivers. You can say he lost this one or he lost that one, but it's still the quarterback making the plays. In their design, they do a great job with their offense getting matchups that they want, but the quarterback, when it comes down to it, he makes the plays for them. He puts the ball on the money so much. He gets rid of the ball instead of getting sacked and then he comes back and makes the play the next play.” – Wade Phillips, Denver defensive coordinator, on the Patriots diminished offense.

Even with all the losses, Phillips was right. Brady was resourceful even though he didn’t have his best weapons or his best stuff.


THE WINNER IS...

Broncos 16, Patriots 13

Broncos 30, Patriots 24

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