We’ve only just begun to speculate on how Tom Brady’s four-game suspension (if served) will impact the Patriots in the win-loss column. I haven’t heard many 1-3s, and I haven't heard any 0-4s.
But even if Diamond Jimmy Garoppolo goes 2-2 in the first four games, the Patriots’ string of six seasons with 12 or more wins doesn’t seem that likely to the folks at Bovada.com, a gaming website based in Antigua.
They placed the line on the Patriots’ regular-season win total at 10.5. That’s the highest total on the board and the same one the Panthers, Packers, Steelers and Seahawks had placed on their seasons. But it’s obvious the prospective loss of Brady for one-fourth of the season is entering into the total that’s a tick below where the team would be with Brady all year.
It’s astounding when you look at the Patriots’ year-by-year record and see they’ve had double-digit wins in 14 of 15 seasons and only “bottomed out” with 10-win campaigns in 2005 and 2009.
What’s the likelihood the Patriots finish with 10 wins of fewer? Not very high. The legal wrangling surrounding Brady’s suspension means that nobody knows for sure if he’ll even sit down this season. Even if he does, the leap the Patriots made defensively in 2015 and the fact the defense returns every consequential player except Chandler Jones can’t be discounted. They should be really good at stopping people.
Here are the rest of the projected totals as Bovada sees ‘em:
Carolina Panthers - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 10½ (-130, 10/13)
Under: 10½ (EVEN, 1/1)
New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 10.5 (-165, 20/33)
Under: 10.5 (+135, 27/20)
New England Patriots - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 10½ (-150, 2/3)
Under: 10½ (+120, 6/5)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over/Under 10½
Seattle Seahawks - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 10½ (-150, 2/3)
Under: 10½ (+120, 6/5)
Arizona Cardinals - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 9½ (-160, 5/8)
Under: 9½ (+130, 13/10)
Cincinnati Bengals - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 9½ (-140, 5/7)
Under: 9½ (+110, 11/10)
Dallas Cowboys - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 9½ (EVEN, 1/1)
Under: 9½ (-130, 10/13)
Indianapolis Colts - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 9½ (+110, 11/10)
Under: 9½ (-140, 5/7)
Kansas City Chiefs - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 9½ (-130, 10/13)
Under: 9½ (EVEN, 1/1)
Minnesota Vikings - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 9½ (-130, 10/13)
Under: 9½ (EVEN, 1/1)
Denver Broncos - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over/Under 9
Baltimore Ravens - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 8½ (+110, 11/10)
Under: 8½ (-140, 5/7)
Houston Texans - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 8½ (-135, 20/27)
Under: 8½ (+105, 21/20)
Oakland Raiders - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over/Under 8½
Buffalo Bills - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over/Under 8
New York Giants - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 8 (-160, 5/8)
Under: 8 (+130, 13/10)
New York Jets - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 8 (EVEN, 1/1)
Under: 8 (-130, 10/13)
Atlanta Falcons - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 7½ (+120, 6/5)
Under: 7½ (-150, 2/3)
Chicago Bears - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over/Under 7½
Jacksonville Jaguars - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 7½ (-150, 2/3)
Under: 7½ (+120, 6/5)
Los Angeles Rams - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 7½ (+120, 6/5)
Under: 7½ (-150, 2/3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 7½ (+120, 6/5)
Under: 7½ (-150, 2/3)
Washington Redskins - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over/Under 7½
Detroit Lions - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 7 (-130, 10/13)
Under: 7 (EVEN, 1/1)
Miami Dolphins - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over/Under 7
New Orleans Saints - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 7 (EVEN, 1/1)
Under: 7 (-130, 10/13)
Philadelphia Eagles - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 7 (EVEN, 1/1)
Under: 7 (-130, 10/13)
San Diego Chargers - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 7 (+105, 21/20)
Under: 7 (-135, 20/27)
San Francisco 49ers - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over/Under 5½
Tennessee Titans - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 5½ (-160, 5/8)
Under: 5½ (+130, 13/10)
Cleveland Browns - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over: 4½ (-130, 10/13)
Under: 4½ (EVEN, 1/1)