FOXBORO -- It's funny. In a way, by trading Brandin Cooks and landing the No. 23 overall selection in this year's draft, the Patriots made life a little harder on themselves in the short-term. Of course, they felt like it was worth it. But now, with two picks in the first round and two in the second, Bill Belichick and his staff have put themselves in position to draft almost any player available this spring.
That means more homework, more due diligence, on this year's class relative to the last few. The Patriots have made one selection in the top 50 -- Malcom Brown in 2015 -- in the last three drafts.
"Last couple years, going into those past few drafts, I would say we were able to eliminate a number of players just based on where we were selecting," Belichick said Friday during the team's annual pre-draft press conference. "This year's a little bit different than that. We really need to know the draft top to bottom. Potentially, I'd say there are a handful of players that are probably out of reach. But realistically, just about everybody is in play other than a handful of guys."
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That seems to be an acknowledgment that the Patriots won't be able to get up to the very top of the draft. Players like Sam Darnold and Josh Allen -- who seem to be the most likely choices to go No. 1 overall -- probably won't be within reach for the Patriots. Saquon Barkley and Bradley Chubb could be out of the mix as well if there are teams set on taking them inside the top three.
But after that? If a someone slips closer to No. 10 overall, the Patriots could work their way up the board if they love the player.
To do that they'll need to find a trade partner. In particular, they'll need a trade partner who views the value of their draft position through the same lens the Patriots do. That means going to the old Jimmy Johnson draft-pick trade chart, which Belichick explained has changed somewhat in recent years because compensatory picks can now be traded.
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"I’d say the draft chart has been modified a little bit based on the change in that," Belichick explained. "One of the problems with the draft chart, if we all have our own draft charts, which is fine, sometimes it’s hard to make a trade because, ‘Well, my draft chart says this. Well, your draft chart says that,’ whereas if we all use the same chart, we all agree on basic value. Then it’s a lot easier to get what we call, I’d say, a fair trade, which I’d say over the last few years the majority of the trades that we’ve studied have been within a few percentage points one way or the other of being the correct value for the trade."
New England Patriots
Going off of the Johnson chart, the Patriots could theoretically get all the way up to No. 9 overall if they were to send their two first-rounders (No. 23 and No. 31) to the Niners. The value of New England's two firsts (1,360 points) would be a fair match for No. 9 (1,350 points).
If the Patriots were willing to add in their top second-round pick to their two firsts (No. 43 overall, 470 points), then that would be enough to get them to No. 4 overall (1,800 points), which belongs to the Browns. The Patriots, you'll remember, have already executed two trades with Cleveland general manager John Dorsey this offseason -- one to land defensive tackle Danny Shelton and one to land corner Jason McCourty.
Maybe Belichick's acknowledgment that there are a "handful" of players out of reach means that he wouldn't be willing to package his top three picks together to make one top-five selection. But, as he said, "realistically," if he really wanted to . . . he could.