Patriots' history with quarterbacks suggests they won't go for Baker Mayfield


Patriots' history with quarterbacks suggests they won't go for Baker Mayfield

Jimmy Garoppolo’s run to end the season with the 49ers has Patriots fans missing the days of having the best quarterback in the league backed up by one of the best quarterbacks in the league. As I type this sentence, Felger and Mazz are talking about Baker Mayfield to the Pats. 

It’s not surprising that people would ask the question, but it would take a pretty big departure from Bill Belichick’s history with quarterbacks to actually go after the Heisman winner. 

Mayfield is listed at 6-foot-1. Know what he probably isn’t? Six-foot-1. Belichick’s time with the Patriots has suggested he isn’t interested in smaller QBs. 

The shortest quarterback the Pats have had under Belichick during the regular season or playoffs was Doug Flutie, who was a third-stringer never intended to take important snaps. Realistically, the shortest first-or-second stringers he’s had have been Jimmy Garoppolo and Rohan Davey, both of whom were 6-foot-2 entering the league. 

Of the 223 quarterbacks drafted since the 2000 draft, the Patriots have drafted nine. The majority have been at least 6-foot-4 (Brady, Cliff Kingsbury, Matt Cassel, Kevin O’Connell, Ryan Mallett, Kevin O’Connell). All of them have been at least 6-foot-2 (the aforementioned eight, plus 6-foot-3 Zac Robinson). 

Tall quarterbacks have advantages over short quarterbacks. That doesn’t mean a tall quarterback is automatically better than a short one, but you’ll take a 6-foot-5 guy over a 5-foot-11 guy with the same skill set any day of the week. 

One obvious edge taller signal-callers have over their shorter counterparts is that they can see over the line better, but it’s more than that. An Ohio State study published in 2016 noted that tall people are better-suited to hit short-to-intermediate passes than short people. 

From that study: 

“New research shows that tall people are better than shorter people at correctly identifying the location of targets in their middle-distance vision -- between three and 20 meters away. (In football, that would be about three to 22 yards away.)”

Obviously, shorter quarterbacks have proven capable of success in the NFL, such as 6-foot-0 Drew Brees and 5-foot-11 Russell Wilson. 

Furthermore, size has allowed good quarterbacks like Wilson to fall in the draft. However, that isn’t expected to happen with Mayfield, who is a projected first-round pick. 

Currently, CBS Sports projects Mayfield to go 10th overall, so he could be long gone by the time the Patriots pick at the end of the first round. Taking a quarterback in the first round actually shouldn’t be discouraged for the Pats, as they would likely still have Garoppolo on their roster had they taken him in the first. 

But for Mayfield? The combination of needing to move up and seriously drifting from philosophy makes it a tough scenario to imagine.

Don't pigeonhole me: How will Adrian Clayborn fit into the Patriots defense?

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Don't pigeonhole me: How will Adrian Clayborn fit into the Patriots defense?

Looking for a two-word answer from Bill Belichick during a press conference? Ask him how a new addition to the roster might fit into the Patriots scheme. 

"We'll see," is Belichick's typical reply in those situations. 


We point that out here because it's hard to know exactly what any new player's role will be with the Patriots, particularly for an edge player like Adrian Clayborn. That spot in Belichick's defense can take on a variety of roles, from pass-rusher, to edge-setter, to coverage player. 

But we can take an educated guess as to how Clayborn will fit in the Patriots defense, based on what we know. That's what the Patriots did when they signed him. They saw certain skills. They saw Clayborn perform in certain situations. They made their projection. 

There's always the chance Clayborn asserts himself in a way that wasn't expected. Or maybe the way he fits with his new teammates will open his coaches' eyes in ways they weren't anticipating. But at this point, as is the case with every new addition, they're hypothesizing. So we will too. 

AGAINST THE PASS: Clayborn was, for the vast majority of his snaps, a pass-rusher for the Falcons last year. He played 631 snaps for the Falcons, which was 53.4 of their defensive snaps. Of those 631 plays, Clayborn rushed the quarterback 477 times, per Pro Football Focus (76 percent of his workload). And of those pass-rush snaps, only one came from the left side. (Clayborn was born with Erb's palsy, which means his right arm has some limitations compared to his left, which impacts the side of the field he aligns on. He played 91 percent of his snaps from the right side in 2016.)  Clayborn played over 80 percent of the snaps during each of his first three seasons in the league as a member of the Bucs so he's been a three-down player before. But recent history would suggest the 6-foot-2, 280-pounder is now more of a sub option.

Here's how Clayborn responded during a conference call on Wednesday when asked if he could chip in on first and second down for the Patriots. "I believe that’s what people have pigeon-holed me in as a third-down player, but I know I can play first, second, third down if need be," he said. "That was my role in Atlanta because that’s what they asked me to do, but I mean, I can play all three downs if you ask me."

AGAINST THE RUN: According to Pro Football Focus, Clayborn has been a negatively-graded player against the run during each of his seven seasons in the NFL. Last year he checked in as PFF's 78th-ranked run defender among edge players, which was far below the ranking Trey Flowers received (19th) but ahead of Deatrich Wise (85th) and Eric Lee (96th). During each of his last three seasons with the Falcons, he has seen his snap-counts break down similarly: about 75 percent of his work came against the pass, about 25 percent came against the run. He can defend the run. He's capable of it. He just hasn't been asked to consistently hold up on the edge on a down-in-down-out basis during the most recent phase of his career. 

THE FIT: Based on his history in Atlanta, it would make sense if the Patriots asked Clayborn to come off of the right edge in passing situations in 2018. That's where his recent experience has been. Keeping him away from the left side not only makes the most of where he's strongest, but it also keeps him from finding himself in coverage. As Belichick has explained in the past, the left end spot (Rob Ninkovich's old spot), going against right-handed quarterbacks, is typically asked to do more in coverage. The right edge has been Flowers' area in the recent past -- he played almost 65 percent of his passing-rush snaps last season off the right, per PFF -- but if the Patriots are fully-healthy up front, Flowers could kick inside to do his rushing. An ideal sub package for the Patriots, it could be argued, would have Clayborn on the right edge, Flowers and either Wise or Adam Butler on the interior, and Derek Rivers or Dont'a Hightower on the left edge. Rivers saw some work off the left side before suffering an injury in last year's training camp. Early last season, Hightower saw time on the left edge. 


Clayborn will have an opportunity to show he can do more than rush off the right side. He said on Wednesday that the Patriots have discussed multiple roles for him. (Perhaps he could rush from the interior, though he's not as long as Flowers or Wise, whose arms make them good matchups for stouter guards and tackles.) Wherever those opportunities come, Clayborn knows he'll have to make the most of them if he doesn't want to be pigeonholed. The deal for two years and $10 million he just signed in New England doesn't guarantee him myriad responsibilities.

"Whatever I can prove I can do,” he said. "I know I can rush the passer. I know I can set edge in the run. I mean, there’s a couple of different positions that they believe I can play, so it’s up to me to prove I can play them."


Ex-Patriot Ricky Jean-Francois signing with Lions

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Ex-Patriot Ricky Jean-Francois signing with Lions

Former Patriots defensive tackle Ricky Jean-Francois is signing with the Lions, according to Jordan Schultz of Yahoo Sports.

The 31-year-old had six tackles in six games for the Patriots in 2017. He'll reunite with ex-Patriots defensive coordinator and now Lions head coach Matt Patricia in Detroit.