To borrow from Tom Moore, are the Packers 'f---ed' without Aaron Rodgers?

To borrow from Tom Moore, are the Packers 'f---ed' without Aaron Rodgers?

Ron Jaworski, in his book “The Games that Changed the Game: The Evolution of the NFL in Seven Sundays,” relayed an exchange he and Jon Gruen once had with longtime Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore. The pair of then-ESPN commentators wondered why Peyton Manning was taking all of the team’s practice reps at quarterback leading up to a game — or, to say it another way, why a backup quarterback wasn’t getting some snaps here and there. 

Moore responded: “Fellas, if ’18’ goes down, we’re f***ed. And we don’t practice f***ed.”

So far, the same logic can be applied to the Green Bay Packers since Aaron Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone Oct. 15 against the Minnesota Vikings. The Packers, 0-3 since Rodgers’ injury, seem — in the words of Moore — f***ed without their best, most important player at the most important position in the sport. 

Consider these numbers:

Stat Pre-Rodgers Post-Rodgers
Offensive yards per play 5.3 4.7
Points scored 27.4 14.6
Defensive yards per play 5.3 5.9
Points allowed 22.4 26.3

Those three losses since  coming by a combined 35 points. The opponents have been fairly difficult (Minnesota, New Orleans, Detroit), but losses to the Saints and Lions came at Lambeau Field. A 13-point Monday night loss to Detroit — which would’ve looked worse had it not been for a last-second touchdown — coming off a bye week looks especially worrisome in Wisconsin given the extra time the team had to prepare Brett Hundley for that game. 

Wide receiver Jordy Nelson offered an optimistic line of thinking while on a conference call with Chicago media this week, trusting in Hundley and the offense’s ability to play better around its quarterback. 

“You gotta have urgency, but you gotta be patient,” Nelson said. “It’s nothing that, once Aaron’s out and someone steps in, it’s going to be the same. What I do remember from that year is we eventually got it going. We scored some points, we moved the ball. That’s something here, Week 3 to 4 with Brett as the starter and getting these reps in practice and stuff is an opportunity for us to really show some gains. I think that’s what we’re looking for on Sunday.”

Nelson’s confidence may wind up being proven to be founded, but Hundley hasn’t shown much yet: He’s completed 56 of 96 passes (58.3 percent) for 489 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions since Rodgers’ injury, and has eight rushes for 69 yards with two touchdowns in those three games (which indicates the Packers may not want to run him as much as could be expected for a mobile quarterback who’s struggled to throw the ball). 

The Bears, though, are confident heading into Sunday based on how they feel about their team, not because of the Packers’ struggles without Rodgers. 

“You don’t really look at things like that in this league,” coach John Fox said. “I think our guys understand there’s a lot of capable players. It’s not about one guy. I understand, they understand he’s a special cat. Their team probably understands that better than anybody because they’re with him everyday. But they’re still a dangerous football team.” 

2017 Bears position grades: Inside Linebacker

2017 Bears position grades: Inside Linebacker

2017 grade: B+

Level of need: Low

Decisions to be made on: Christian Jones (free agent), John Timu (free agent), Jonathan Anderson (free agent); Jerrell Freeman has reportedly been cut

Possible free agent targets: Demario Davis, Preston Brown, Anthony Hitchens, Avery Williamson, Navorro Bowman, Derrick Johnson

How the Bears rate Nick Kwiatkoski will be the key to figuring out what this unit will look like in 2018. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio thought Kwiatkoski finished last season strong, but strong enough to rely on him in 2018 as the starter next to Danny Trevathan?

The thing with the Bears’ inside linebackers, though: Trevathan makes whoever is playing next to him better. The problem is Trevathan hasn’t been able to stay on the field — he missed time in 2017 with a calf injury and a one-game suspension, and missed half of 2016 after rupturing his Achilles’. Trevathan hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2013, so durability is an issue for the soon-to-be 28-year-old.

So that leads to this question: Do the Bears need to find someone in free agency, regardless of how they value Kwiatkoski, who’s also missed time due to injuries in his first two years in the league?

Free agency could provide a few options. Demario Davis had a career high 97 tackles for the New York Jets last year and has never missed a game as a pro. Preston Brown had some decent production in Buffalo and also hasn’t missed a game since being drafted in 2014. Avery Williamson may not be a world-beater but has only missed one game in his four years in the NFL.

The Bears could also opt for someone who fits more of a rotational mold, like Dallas’ Anthony Hitchens, or try to lure a veteran linebacker like Navorro Bowman (who played for Vic Fangio in San Francisco) or Derrick Johnson (who Matt Nagy knows from his Kansas City days) to play next to Trevathan and/or Kwiatkoski.

The Bears could opt to keep the status quo and re-sign Christian Jones and John Timu for depth, and enter 2018 with Kwiatkoski and Trevathan as the team’s starters (Jerrell Freeman, who suffered a season-ending injury and then was hit with his second PED suspension in as many years, was cut on Tuesday). Signing a starting-caliber free agent isn’t out of the question, either, but there is a third option for the Bears if they appear to stand pat in free agency: Draft an inside linebacker in April. If that’s the route they go, Georgia’s Roquan Smith could be the guy. But again, those more pressing needs at other positions could mean the Bears don’t burn a first-round pick on an inside linebacker.

With Josh Sitton on his way out, what’s next for the Bears’ offensive line?

With Josh Sitton on his way out, what’s next for the Bears’ offensive line?

The first major move of Ryan Pace’s 2018 offseason hit on Tuesday, as NFL Network reported the Bears will not exercise Josh Sitton’s $8 million option for 2018. 

The move accomplishes two things for the Bears: 1) It frees up about $8 million in cap space and 2) Removes a veteran from the offensive line and creates a hole to fill, presumably by a younger free agent or draft pick. 

The 31-year-old Sitton signed a three-year deal with the Bears after Green Bay cut him just before the 2016 season, and was a Pro Bowler his first year in Chicago. Sitton played 26 of 32 games in two years with the Bears, but him being on the wrong side of 30 was likely the biggest factor here. If the Bears saw his skills eroding, releasing him now and netting the cap savings while going younger at the position does make sense. 

“Going younger” doesn’t guarantee the Bears will draft Notre Dame brawler Quenton Nelson, though that did become a greater possibility with Tuesday’s move. Nelson might be one of the two or three best offensive players in this year’s draft, and offensive line coach Harry Hiestand knows him well from the four years they spent together at Notre Dame. 

There’s a natural fit there, of course, but a few reasons to slow the Nelson-to-Chicago hype train: Would he even make it to No. 8? Or if he’s there, is taking a guard that high worth it when the Bears have needs at wide receiver, outside linebacker and cornerback? Still, the thought of Nelson — who absolutely dominated at Notre Dame — pairing with Hiestand again is tantalizing, and Nelson very well could step into any team’s starting lineup and be an immediate Pro Bowler as a rookie. 

If the Bears go younger in free agency, Matt Nagy knows 26-year-old guard Zach Fulton (No. 25 in Bleacher Report’s guard rankings) well from their time in Kansas City. Fulton — a Homewood-Flossmoor alum — has the flexibility to play both guard positions and center, which could open the door for Cody Whitehair to be moved to left guard, the position he was initially drafted to play (though the Bears do value him highly as a center, and keeping him at one position would benefit him as opposed to moving him around the line again). There are some other guys out there — like Tennessee’s Josh Kline or New York’s Justin Pugh — that could wind up costing more than Fulton in free agency. 

Or the Bears could look draft an offensive lineman after the first round, perhaps like Ohio State’s Billy Price, Georgia’s Isaiah Wynn or UTEP’s Will Hernandez. How the Bears evaluate guards at the NFL Combine next week will play an important role in how they go about replacing Sitton. 

The trickle-down effect of releasing Sitton will impact more than the offensive line, too. Freeing up his $8 million in cap space -- which wasn't a guarantee, unlike cutting Jerrell Freeman and, at some point, Mike Glennon -- could go toward paying Kyle Fuller, or another top cornerback, or a top wide receiver, or some combination of players at those positions (as well as outside linebacker). The Bears were already in a healthy place cap-wise; that just got healthier on Tuesday.