Think the Bears should've taken Deshaun Watson over Mitch Trubisky? Tap the brakes — hard


Think the Bears should've taken Deshaun Watson over Mitch Trubisky? Tap the brakes — hard

After his Seattle Seahawks slipped past the Houston Texans on Sunday night, Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman declared via Peter King’s MMQB that Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson played “the best game any quarterback has ever played against us, and we’ve played all the legends.”

Just in case Bears fans needed a booster shot for wishes that their team had snagged Watson instead of Mitch Trubisky.

No side is being taken here for that useless what-if — useless because that kind of what-if leaves out differences in just about every imaginable point of comparison that matters: coaching staffs, which one is throwing to two first-round wideouts, college experience, just to cite a few. And the ultimate question is not which quarterback is better, but rather which one is better for his team. No timetable on answering that, and certainly not after four games by Trubisky and six and a half by Watson.

Watson is off to the best start ever by a rookie quarterback through this point of a season. Of course, the one-time record-holder for rookie attempts, completions and yards gained, before Peyton Manning broke those records, was Rick Mirer. A No. 2 overall pick. Just sayin’.

Actually, there are lots of second-guessing options at the moment. The top three in ESPN’s quarterback rating (QBR) are Watson, Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz — all entering the NFL this year or last. Only Prescott was taken by a team that didn’t move up on draft day.

And if the Bears somehow got the wrong guy, then they’re not alone. Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs traded up to draft a quarterback at No. 10 in this year's draft. Not Watson. Patrick Mahomes.

Years of Trubisky vs. Watson ahead

Comparing Trubisky and Watson will probably go on for years, much like the Wentz-Jared Goff comparison will in Los Angeles and the Tim Couch-Donovan McNabb one has in Cleveland. (The latter one doesn’t really count, though, since Cleveland quarterback what-ifs go way, way beyond one draft or player.)

The real point of all this being: Rushes to judgment are beyond silly less than half a season into any player's NFL career, but quarterbacks more than any others. Second-guessing is even more pointless. Joe Montana was a third-round pick, Brett Favre a second-rounder, Tom Brady a sixth and Prescott a fourth. That should top off the second-guess material tank in case Trubisky-Watson doesn’t do it.

If there is any second-guess finger to be pointed, it arguably could be at a Bears coaching staff that didn’t make the switch to Trubisky from Mike Glennon in the fashion that Bill O’Brien and the Texans staff pulled an inept Tom Savage and went with Watson. Best guess, however: If Trubisky were a better alternative at the time before the change, Trubisky would’ve been playing. As it was, he nearly was named the Day 1 starter, suggesting that he was pretty close to the ever-vague “ready” even then. But that’s old news, and a coaching staff goes with the best-chance-to-win option, so if nothing else, self-interest would’ve driven the John Fox staff to start the better option.

Past is prologue, QB debates are nothing if not endless

But while redebating pre-draft hand-wringing is a waste of time, some antecedents involving quarterback career starts warrant a little analysis, if only to quell some of the nonsense swirling around what Watson is or what Trubisky will be.

Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota? Bears general manager Ryan Pace coveted Mariota before the 2015 draft, but the cost of jumping from No. 7 to No. 2 was too high. Mariota has a sizeable QBR edge and is 15-18 in his NFL starts compared to Winston’s 17-22 record. Think Tampa Bay regrets passing on Mariota? Probably not.

Robert Griffin III, coincidentally also a No. 2 overall pick his team traded frantically up to draft, was the 2012 version of Watson after he exploded onto the NFL scene in his rookie season with a 102.4 passer rating and a 20-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. RGIII then had the misfortune of injuries and perhaps some coaching issues diminishing his skills, though he still started 13 games in 2013 and netted a pedestrian 82.3 rating with 16 touchdown passes versus 12 interceptions.

RGIII’s situation was a decline-and-fall scenario, however. In the other direction, perhaps more in line with the Trubisky case, Goff mucked through his rookie season for the Los Angeles Rams with a 63.6 rating and more interceptions thrown (seven) than touchdown passes (five).

Trubisky right now is a little ahead of Goff’s pace, at 66.3 with two each of touchdowns and interceptions, not including the lost score to Zach Miller in Sunday's game in New Orleans. Goff has launched in Year 2 — albeit with a coaching change from a defense-based head guy (Jeff Fisher) to one from an offensive base (Sean McVay) — to a top-10 90-plus rating, 9-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a Rams team at 5-2 behind him.

Wentz, taken at Trubisky’s No. 2 overall slot a pick after Goff, is prominent in MVP conversations with the Philadelphia Eagles at an NFL-best 7-1. Just for perspective purposes: Wentz flashed early last season with 100-plus ratings in three of his first four games (the one sub-100 game came against the Bears), but then went from a 3-0 start to losses in nine of the next 11, a stretch in which Wentz threw for eight touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

At various points of their rookie seasons, Goff was deemed a bust and Griffin was declared the future of NFL quarterbacking, and neither was either. Best guess here: Trubisky and Watson will prove out pretty much the same way.

After releasing him, Bears reportedly bringing back Marcus Cooper


After releasing him, Bears reportedly bringing back Marcus Cooper

Marcus Cooper's offseason has resembled a will they, won't they relationship.

The corner back signed a three-year deal with the Bears last offseason, but struggled last year and was released by the Bears after one year of that deal. However, Adam Caplan is reporting that Cooper could be back in a Bears uniform this season.

Cooper was officially released by the Bears on March 14 and visited the Arizona Cardinals earlier on Friday. Cooper started for the Cardinals in 2016.

Cooper began the year as a starter for the Bears, but finished with just four starts. He finished 2017 with 18 tackles and three passes deflected in 15 games.

His play with the Bears didn't exactly make him Mr. Popular with fans, as can be observed by looking at the savage replies to Caplan's report.

Cooper's original contract for the Bears with valued at $16 million over three years so the reported $2.5 million number is a significant pay cut and could mean he is being brought back for depth as opposed to last year when he was expected to start.

Plenty of possibilities loom ahead of Bears' draft pick

Plenty of possibilities loom ahead of Bears' draft pick

As the Bears begin to fill out their draft board in earnest, they’ll do so by evaluating the players they like and the players they think will be available when they pick eighth in April. And what players check both those boxes and go into their draft “clouds,” as Ryan Pace calls them, will depend largely on how many quarterbacks are taken ahead of the Bears’ pick. 

With about a month until the draft, it seems clear two teams will take a quarterback with a top-seven pick: the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets. The Browns own the Nos. 1 and 4 picks; the Jets traded up from No. 6 to No. 3, and teams rarely invest that kind of draft capital to not draft a quarterback. 

That leaves a few hinge points in how many quarterbacks are picked by the time the Bears are on the clock:

New York Giants (No. 2 overall)

The Giants still have an aging Eli Manning but could move to use the second pick to draft his long-term replacement. Or, alternatively, they could use this deep class of top-end quarterbacks as an avenue to trade down, add some picks and build out a young core that way. Either of these scenarios would be good news for the Bears, as we’ve seen Penn State running back Saquon Barkley, N.C. State defensive end Bradley Chubb and Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson connected to the Giants at No. 2 as well, if they were to stay there. The Buffalo Bills could be motivated to trade up to No. 2 to make sure they get the guy they want with quarterbacks almost assuredly going off the board at Nos. 1 and 3. 

Cleveland Browns (No. 4 overall)

If the Browns get their quarterback with the first pick — Sam Darnold? — they could be sitting in an ideal spot at No. 4. If the Giants draft a quarterback, Cleveland could play hardball and tell teams they’re fine keeping the fourth pick and drafting Barkley with it. That could create a bidding war between the Buffalo Bills (No. 12) and Denver Broncos (No. 5) to trade up and draft the last of the four clear-cut top quarterbacks in this class. In this scenario, Cleveland adds a bunch of picks to an already-sizable stash and accelerates their growth through the draft. 

If the Giants were to trade out of the No. 2 pick, let’s say to the Bills, it may lessen Cleveland’s desire to trade down from No. 4 unless a team in need of a quarterback like the Arizona Cardinals (No. 15) or Miami Dolphins (No. 11) starts lurking around. But as we saw last year with the Bears trading up one spot to draft Mitch Trubisky, teams don’t want to leave things to chance if they have conviction on the quarterback they want. So that brings us to the…

Denver Broncos (No. 5 overall)

The Broncos signed Case Keenum to a two-year deal and still have 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch on their roster, though he hasn’t shown much in only five games as a pro. Does Denver absolutely, positively have to draft a quarterback? No. They’re probably in the same boat as the Giants in that regard. But what if they really like Josh Allen and/or Baker Mayfield, both of whom their coaching staff worked with at the Senior Bowl, and one of them is still on the board when the Browns’ pick comes up at No. 4? Or what if Josh Rosen has been their guy all along? 

In that case, John Elway may make an aggressive move to guarantee he gets the quarterback he wants, and not risk losing that guy if a team were to cut the line by trading with the Browns. 

The other scenario is less positive for the Bears: Maybe the Broncos only have one or two quarterbacks out of this group they want, and they either can’t find a trade partner to move out of No. 5 or don’t want to. If three quarterbacks are drafted in the first seven picks, the Bears may not have the opportunity to draft one of Nelson, Chubb or Alabama defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick. That’s not necessarily a bad thing — Virginia Tech’s Tremaine Edmunds, for example, is a super-talented prospect — but we seem to be moving toward a consensus that Nelson, Fitzpatrick, Chubb and Barkley are the four best non-quarterback prospects in this draft. And in all likelihood, the Bears will only be able to draft one of them four quarterbacks are taken before they pick. 

The wild card here is Nelson, given his position (guard) is rarely seen as worthy of being a top-10 pick. But those who saw him up close in college believe he’s a future perennial Pro Bowler, possibly beginning as soon as his rookie year. The Bears’ fit is obvious, with Harry Hiestand coming to coach the offensive line from Notre Dame and the team — as of right now — still having a fairly clear need for another interior offensive lineman. Perhaps Nelson falls to the Bears even if there are only three quarterbacks off the board before they pick, but having four go off the board would make things a little less stressful at Halas Hall in late April. 

Indianapolis Colts (No. 6 overall) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 7 overall)

The Colts already traded down once, and likely did so with the confidence that Chubb would still be on the board at No. 6 to help their limp pass rush. Fitzpatrick seems to be a good fit with Tampa Bay, though a player of his caliber would be a good fit anywhere. Either of these teams still could be persuaded to trade down, especially if the Giants and/or Broncos pass on a quarterback.

Chicago Bears (No. 8 overall)

If four quarterbacks are off the board by the time the Bears pick, that’s ideal for Pace. If three are, he still could get someone from his No. 8 pick “cloud” and be content staying there. If only two are — and this doesn’t appear to be a likely scenario — that means the Bills haven’t found a trade partner and may want to leapfrog the Dolphins at No. 11 to get their guy. More likely, if the Bears are able to trade down from No. 8, it would be because a team like Arizona wants to make sure the quarterback they want isn’t snagged by an opportunistic team ahead of them. 

But Pace's draft history has seen him trade up far more frequently than trade down. If someone who's in his draft cloud is available when the Bears go on the clock, chances are he'll pick that guy and not trade down. 

Plenty can and will change between now and when the draft begins on April 26. But for right now, the landscape ahead of the Bears suggests only positive things setting up for their first-round pick.