Bears

By the numbers, Bears 'won' the Mitch Trubisky trade

By the numbers, Bears 'won' the Mitch Trubisky trade

Of all the variables surrounding the Bears' trade to get into position for the drafting Mitch Trubisky, here is arguably the most meaningless (or is it "least meaningful?" grammarians, weigh in):

Based on just the numbers, the Bears’ giving the San Francisco 49ers third- and fourth-round picks this draft and a third in 2018, for the right to move up from No. 3 to No. 2 in round one may have been about the right price to pay for what they believe will be their franchise quarterback. A good price, actually.

Here's the “deal:”

ProFootballTalk.com tracked down the new draft-trade chart put together by Rich Hill at PatsPulpit.com, which is an excellent effort at collating information from NFL executives and examples of deals into a revised chart reflecting various market factors that have changed since Jimmy Johnson his in use with the Dallas Cowboys, including the tweaks based on the 2011 CBA implementation.

Rich’s conclusion to me: “The Bears get edge, but…” and here’s his math:

Bears get: No. 2 (717.17)

49ers get: No. 3 (514.33), No. 67 (74.59), No. 111 (28.22) and 2018 third round (38.02) = 655.16

That gives the Bears a delta of +62.01, which is the value equivalent to the 75th overall pick (third round).

The huge obvious qualifier (both in the trade and in the future) lies in the value of the quarterback; Trubisky was not as highly regarded as either Jared Goff or Carson Wentz, who went 1-2 in the 2016 draft to teams (Los Angeles, Philadelphia), that traded massive hauls to move up for them. Washington mortgaged its future in 2012 to move up to No. 2 for Robert Griffin III, another prospect rated considerably higher than Trubisky.

[RELATED: If Mitch Trubisky develops well, 'No one's ever going to care what they gave up for him']

A specific parallel, sans “table numbers?” San Diego trading with Arizona to swap places from No. 3 to No. 2 in the 1998 draft. The Chargers gave the Cardinals two No. 1’s and a No. 2 plus two players. As far as a No. 2, Leaf wasn’t Donovan McNabb (no trade) or Wentz. If Trubisky is closer to the latters, the deal (and Bears scouting under Pace) was probably a good thing.

Considerable debate has swirled over whether the Bears were the only team bidding, whether the 49ers actually had other offers or if the Bears were just the only team willing to meet San Francisco’s price. The last issue isn’t really an issue; of course the Bears were the only one to meet the price, which is why they got the No. 2 pick.

Bears play 'designer' game in mauling of Bengals, now what does it mean for the big picture?

Bears play 'designer' game in mauling of Bengals, now what does it mean for the big picture?

A week after playing the kind of football game that gets coaches fired, the Bears almost inexplicably produced one that ranks as exactly the type their organization has wanted to see from players and coaches in a season on the employment brink for John Fox.

The Bears’ 33-7 win over the Cincinnati Bengals was an afternoon rife with signs of progress, particularly notable because it came from a team with nothing to play for and came at the expense of a team that actually did have at least a mathematical something at stake.

Not to even remotely say that this was a game that changed the job forecast for Fox, which still has time to play out, only that if the Bears somehow manage to string together a closing four games like this… well, no point getting that hypothetical at this juncture. But one team played on Sunday like it wanted its coach gone and the other like it wants its coach back, and they weren’t as expected.

(Just for sake of argument: If the Bears now play this kind of game against the Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings, how will you feel about John Fox coaching Chicago for the fourth and final year of his contract? Just sayin’…)

All of this came at the expense of a Cincinnati team missing virtually the entire back end of its defense and with All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins hobbled. But this is what you are supposed to do to a shaky, shaken team, and it is what the Bears didn’t do to a San Francisco or a Green Bay. You can only beat the team in front of you that day and the Bears, for the third time against a team from the powerful AFC North division this year, did that. Emphatically.

What the organization does with this in evaluating Fox is still weeks away and not really worth the analysis exercise right now. But it was a statement game, one where the Bears played well and hard for 60 minutes, for any number of individuals, beginning with Mitch Trubisky as the rookie evinced the kind of development that the franchise has prayed for from its young quarterback ever since GM Ryan Pace deemed him worth trading up on draft day to ensure landing.

Call this a “designer” game – a 100-yard rusher (Jordan Howard with two touchdowns and 147 yards, pushing him past 1,000 yards for the season), a 100-yard receiver (Kendall Wright, 10 catches for 107 yards, and a quarterback who both managed the game and shredded the defense (Trubisky, 25 for 32, 271 yards, a touchdown pass and touchdown run, no interceptions and a rating of 112.4.

The 482 yards of offense are the second-highest output (after 522 in a 2016 loss at Indianapolis) in the Fox era.

The defense collected two takeaways (an interception and fumble grab by rookie safety Eddie Jackson) while the offense had zero turnovers. That second part has been of marginal value this season, with the Bears an undistinguished 2-2 in games when they’ve managed no giveaways. But ball security has been a prime directive for Trubisky since coaches turned the game over to him and Sunday’s effort left him with just those four interceptions in 225 attempts, a pick percentage of 1.8 and completion percentage climbing to 58 percent.

Game plan pyrotechnics

The game plan and result do make for an interesting dichotomy for critics. The Bears have to run the football to win, and yet when O-coordinator Dowell Loggains runs the football, he’s pilloried for being too conservative and shackling Trubisky.

This time Loggains was able to formulate and direct a game plan that had balance – 38 runs, 34 pass plays – and a complete spectrum of formations that included a wildcat run by Tarik Cohen, a read-option touchdown run by Trubisky, and passes to open six of the Bears 11 possessions.

The Bears piled up 256 yards in the first half after a combined total of 287 for the last two games. 

What had to be concerning is that, while Trubisky had thrown just four interceptions over the span of his first eight starts, he also had connected on just five touchdown passes (six if the Zach Miller non-catch travesty is included). And as WBBM and WSCR observer Zach Zaidman compiled, the offense had gotten into the red zone only nine – nine – times in eight games under Trubisky.

This time the Bears drove into the red zone five times and came away with points three of those times. Add in Howard’s first touchdown run for 21 yards and the overall is the sort of sustained consistent offense that wins football games.

The Bears didn’t go a possession without notching at least one first down until deep into the fourth quarter when they were up 33-7.

Six different players had plays gaining 10 yards or more and the Bears had 10 plays longer than 15 yards. Last week, the Bears had one play longer than 15 yards. Against Philadelphia, three. Against Detroit, one of the only three other times they scored 20-plus points this season, six.

“We put the past behind us and [focused on] one drive at a time,” Trubisky said. “We had a great week of practice, and I feel like that just trickled [down] throughout the week with positive energy. The guys just came together and we were able to make a lot of plays today.

“We weren’t going to dwell on the past and what we didn’t do. We can learn from our mistakes, and it allowed us to be more effective today.”

And it all means…what?

The positives speak for themselves, but mean precious little if this game, with its largest Bears winning margin since they beat Jacksonville by 38 and Tennessee by 31 in 2012, isn’t followed by another progress game, then another, and then one more at Minnesota.

The Bears have delivered false positives on multiple occasions this season, in the form of wins over Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Carolina, none of which ultimately meant much of anything because of what followed. The Carolina win was followed by five straight losses that rocked the franchise just as it felt as if a turnaround might be starting.

Now, no one really knows what to expect.

“What’s been frustrating for me and the coaches is that a lot of us have had our day in the sun, but to see young guys come in, and work hard, and not reap those benefits,” Fox said. “I thought Mitch Trubisky played very well last week [vs. San Francisco]. When you don’t experience the end result that’s a ‘W,’ it’s hard to put much into that. I’ve seen him grow every week he’s been out there since all the way back to Minnesota.

“It’s just kind of nice to see some of those young guys experience the benefits of all that hard work.”

Under Center Podcast: How important was Bears' blowout win over Bengals?

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USA TODAY

Under Center Podcast: How important was Bears' blowout win over Bengals?

Where has that game plan been all season!?

Laurence Holmes, Alex Brown and Jim Miller break down the Bears' 33-7 win over the Bengals on Sunday.

Mitchell Trubisky had his best game as a Bear as Jordan Howard continued to change the franchise’s record books.

Plus, Adam Shaheen and Kyle Fuller had big performances that could cement them as part of the Bears future which starts this Saturday with the division-rival Lions.

Listen to the full Under Center Podcast right here: