Predicting the winner of the 2016 AFC Championship game

If the NFC game will turn on which quarterback handles first-time conference-championship pressure better, the AFC game won’t have that issue. What it will have, though, are thoroughly intriguing matchups with the NFL’s No. 1 defense for yards allowed/No. 4 scoring (Denver) against Tom Brady, and any Bill Belichick defense against Peyton Manning.

Simple solutions are difficult to lay out, because teams at the level of Denver and New England defy “simple.” Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger was the only quarterback in 2015 to reach 300 passing yards against Denver, and he did it twice. The Broncos lost twice to teams (Oakland 27, Pittsburgh 23) rushing for less than 30 yards but were 5-2 against teams that run for more than 100 yards on them.

But Manning is 6-13 in his career vs. New England, one of only five teams to have winning records against Manning (the Bears, 2-1, are one of those).

And only one team defeated Belichick and the Patriots while rushing for 100 yards. Manning at this physical point of his career does not have the personal firepower to break down a defense that schemes to take away his run and short-pass game and has two of its best linebackers (Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower) available.

[SHOP: Gear up Bears fans!]

All this is at a time when Brady will have Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski all in his offense, which wasn’t the case when the Patriots lost – in OT – back in November.