Cubs

Projecting the 2017 Cubs' 25-man playoff roster

Now that the Cubs have locked up the National League Central, the attention has turned to the postseason.

The Cubs will head to Washington D.C. for a date with Bryce Harper and the Nationals in the National League Division Series beginning Oct. 6.

There are still a couple question marks regarding health and effectiveness on several players, but here's how the Cubs' 25-man roster could look for that NLDS showdown.

Note: This isn't a projection of a lineup for Game 1 of the NLDS. I don't envy Maddon deciding which three outfielders to sit each night (assuming Javy Baez and Addison Russell are set at middle infield).

CATCHER

Willson Contreras
Alex Avila

This is an easy call. Contreras figures to start every postseason game he's healthy for with his unique blend of arm strength to control the running game, energy and offensive prowess. Avila is a steady veteran who would be the starting catcher on the roster of almost every other playoff team, but instead will contribute off the bench as a left-handed bat and clubhouse presence.

INFIELD

Anthony Rizzo
Javy Baez
Addison Russell
Kris Bryant
Tommy La Stella

Not including Ben Zobrist or Ian Happ here because the assumption is Baez takes over at second base with Russell at short for every postseason game (and possibly every inning in October). That's how things ended up last fall as Baez emerged as a national star while starting all 17 playoff games at second base and displacing Zobrist from the infield to the outfield.

Of course, Rizzo and Bryant will start every single playoff game at the corners (with good health).

OUTFIELD

Ben Zobrist
Kyle Schwarber
Albert Almora Jr.
Jason Heyward
Jon Jay
Ian Happ

This is where Maddon will make his money. There's a legitimate shot for all six guys to start each game, yet clearly that won't happen. Does Zobrist deserve to start every game? Maddon has turned him into a part-time player at age 36 and Zobrist is hitting just .238 with a .705 OPS.

Against left-handed starting pitchers (like Washington's Gio Gonzalez), Schwarber will not start and Almora (if he's fully over his recent shoulder issue) almost assuredly will man center. Will Jason Heyward also sit vs. LHPs, leaving an OF of Happ-Almora-Zobrist left-to-right? Heyward has been only slightly better offensively this season (.707 OPS) compared to 2016 (.631 OPS), but is the best defensive outfielder in the game.

How much will Schwarber play? We know he'll sit against all LHPs, but he's also only been starting sparingly against RHPs in important games down the stretch despite 5 HR and a .970 OPS in 46 September at-bats.

STARTING ROTATION

Jake Arrieta
Jon Lester
Kyle Hendricks
Jose Quintana

I tell you what, I would not want to be the person who has to tell John Lackey he's not going to make the playoff rotation. But if all of these guys are healthy, I don't see how Lackey makes the cut, even if he does have a 2.51 ERA in 28.2 September innings and 26 career playoff outings under his belt.

Lester took a step forward Monday after a startling stretch of ineffectiveness (5.91 ERA, .948 OPS against in four starts between Sept. 2-20). He has one more start to continue to right the ship but regardless of the outcome in that game, Cubs have to feel pretty good about a guy with a 2.63 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 133.2 career postseason innings.

The only true question with the rotation comes in how they line up. While Lester has been struggling, Arrieta has picked up where he left off pre-hamstring injury, Kyle Hendricks has been a stud and Jose Quintana just pitched the game of his life over the weekend to neutralize the Brewers.

My bet is Arrieta and Hendricks Games 1 and 2 in D.C. and then Lester in Game 3 at Wrigley Field. Quintana would go Game 4 assuming there is no sweep.

BULLPEN

Wade Davis
Carl Edwards Jr.
Mike Montgomery
Pedro Strop
Brian Duensing
Hector Rondon
Justin Wilson
Justin Grimm

Here's where things get a bit hazy, as well. With Koji Uehara still unable to get past a knee and back injury, he's essentially out of the mix. Rondon is also nursing a sore elbow, but has thrown 2.1 dominant innings over the last week and hasn't allowed a run since Aug. 23. 

Wilson has been an enigma since coming over from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline, going from one of the elite late-inning options in baseball to a guy who has allowed 35 baserunners in 15.2 innings in a Cubs uniform. But he's done it before and he did have an outing over the weekend that was encouraging, retiring all four Brewers he faced, including three strikeouts. Then there was Tuesday, when Wilson walked the only two batters he faced against the Cardinals and was removed in the middle of an at-bat.

There's also the Justin Grimm factor. He's got a 5.57 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 48 appearances, but the Cubs don't really have any other trustworthy options in the 'pen and the worst thing a team could do in October is somehow wind up without enough pitching if a game extends to extra innings or a pitcher is only used for one hitter. Over the last three years, Grimm has held lefties to a .597 OPS against and did make six appearances last October.


If not Grimm for the 25th man on the roster, the Cubs do have the option of keeping an extra position player, but nobody really stands out right now. 

Leonys Martin could be a pinch-runner, but the roster has plenty of left-handed bats and outfielders as it stands, so Martin doesn't hold a ton of value. Victor Caratini can catch or play first/third base, but he's a rookie in his first MLB season and has hit just .240 with a .681 OPS in 56 plate appearances. Rene Rivera is a wily veteran who can do some damage against left-handed pitchers, but do the Cubs really need a third catcher in the postseason?