Cubs

Why Cubs see Jake Arrieta staying strong through October

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Why Cubs see Jake Arrieta staying strong through October

NEW YORK – Whether or not Jake Arrieta still has that same aura of invincibility, the Cubs believe their Cy Young Award candidate can pitch into November.

Setting the standard at no-hitter/complete-game shutout meant it felt like a surprise when the “Arrieta dominates St. Louis Cardinals” story didn’t write itself in the divisional round.

The Cubs still beat baseball’s best team in the regular season, even on an off night for Arrieta, who saw his streak of 21 straight quality starts end after allowing four runs in 5.2 innings. He simply didn’t have the same sharpness (two walks) or finish to his pitches (one hit batter), reminding everyone that he’s still human.

Now Arrieta gets the New York Mets on Sunday night at Citi Field in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series, with the Cubs already down 1-0 in this best-of-seven matchup and facing a team that just beat Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, eliminating the Los Angeles Dodgers.

“He’s not going to be perfect every time,” manager Joe Maddon said. “But I like the idea that he’s got a little extra rest going into this start. I’m anticipating a lot of what we’ve seen the last couple months.”

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That would be arguably the greatest second half for any pitcher in major-league history, putting up an 0.75 ERA after the All-Star break. The Cubs still haven’t lost a game Arrieta started since July 25, when it took Cole Hamels throwing a no-hitter for the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field.

But Arrieta only has so many bullets left in his right arm, nearing 244 innings this year, or 87 more than he threw last season in the big leagues after a shoulder injury wiped out his April.

“We intend to play in October every year,” Arrieta said. “That’s something that I just take into consideration throughout the training process, trying to prepare your body as best as possible. (That’s) shoulder care, keeping everything as injury-resistant as possible.

“Obviously, there are certain things you can’t control, but physically my body’s great. I feel like there’s still some work for me to be done. And I don’t think I’ve gotten to the end of my leash yet.”

The Cubs are certainly aware of all this and no one has any definitive answers, because pitching healthcare is a next frontier for the industry. Arrieta is also a workout freak coming into his own with an acute understanding of his own pitching mechanics and mind/body dynamics.

“He’s as in-shape as anybody that’s ever played this game,” Maddon said. “Now, of course, guys get hurt even though they’re in good shape. I understand that. (But also) the fact that (he’s almost) 30 years of age is different than if he was 23, 24 making this kind of a jump in number of innings pitched and number of pitches thrown. I’d probably be more concerned if he was 23 or 24, to be honest.”

Arrieta is also a top-10 pitcher in terms of pitches thrown per inning, averaging 15 during this breakout season and showing an ability to think through at-bats on his feet.

“That’s pretty darned good,” Maddon said. “So maybe he’s thrown a lot of innings, but a lot of non-stressful innings, which I do think matters.

“I hate when the pitcher has to work early in the inning to get his outs. That really bums me out. Normally, he’s not going to be pitching deep into that game. But for the most part, he hasn’t really struggled to get outs early in the game, and that has led him to pitching more deep in the game, and you’re seeing all these extra innings piling up.

“This guy’s really in great shape. He takes care of himself, repeats his delivery. He’s pitch-efficient. Those are the kind of things that I want to believe are going to permit him to be this guy this year – and in the future – without any kind of negative impact.”

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For Arrieta, the biggest challenge might be making sure his heart rate doesn’t start soaring eight hours before first pitch in front of a raucous New York crowd and a Cubs team that will be playing with a sense of urgency.

“The physical toll really hasn’t bothered me at all,” Arrieta said. “But I think that the mental side of it and all the energy you burn leading up to the game does have a little bit of effect. But having a couple of these under my belt now, I’m pretty confident going in that I’ll be able to handle that pretty well.”

Javy Baez can do anything defensively, but what's next for him at the plate?

Javy Baez can do anything defensively, but what's next for him at the plate?

MESA, Ariz. — You don’t need to spend long searching the highlight reels to figure out why Javy Baez goes by “El Mago.”

Spanish for “The Magician,” that moniker is a fitting one considering what Baez can do with his glove and his arm up the middle of the infield. The king of tags, Baez also dazzles with his throwing arm and his range. He looks like a Gold Glove kind of player when you watch him do these amazing things. And it’s no surprise that in his first media session of the spring, he was talking about winning that award.

“Just to play hard and see what I can do. Obviously, try to be healthy the whole year again. And try to get that Gold Glove that I want because a lot of people know me for my defense,” he said Friday at Cubs camp. “Just try to get a Gold Glove and stay healthy the whole year.”

Those high expectations — in this case, being the best defensive second baseman in the National League — fall in line with everything the rest of the team is saying about their own high expectations. It’s been “World Series or bust” from pretty much everyone over the past couple weeks in Mesa.

Baez might not be all the way there just yet. Joe Maddon talked earlier this week about his reminders that Baez needs to keep focusing on making the easy plays while staying a master of the magnificent.

“What I talked to him about was, when he had to play shortstop, please make the routine play routinely and permit your athleticism to play. Because when the play requires crazinesss, you’re there, you can do that,” Maddon said. “But this straight up ground ball three-hopper to shortstop, come get the ball, play it through and make an accurate throw in a routine manner. Apparently that stuck. Because he told me once he thought in those terms, it really did slow it down for him. And he did do a better job at doing that.”

But the biggest question for Cubs fans when it comes to Baez is when the offense will catch up to his defense. Baez hit a game-winning homer run in his first major league game and smacked 23 of them last season, good for fifth on a team full of power bats. But arguably just as famous as Baez’s defensive magic is his tendency to chase pitches outside of the strike zone. He had 144 strikeouts last season and reached base at a .317 clip. Seven Cubs — including notable struggling hitters Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist — had higher on-base percentages in 2017.

Baez, for one, is staying focused on what he does best, saying he doesn’t really have any specific offensive goals for the upcoming season.

“I’m not worrying about too much about it,” he said. “I’m just trying to play defense, and just let the offense — see what happens.”

Maddon, unsurprisingly, talked much more about what Baez needs to do to become a better all-around player, and unsurprisingly that included being more selective at the plate.

“One of the best base runners in the game, one of the finest arms, most acrobatic, greatest range on defense, power. The biggest thing for me for him is to organize the strike zone,” Maddon said. “Once he does that, heads up. He’s at that point now, at-bat wise, if you want to get those 500, 600 plate appearances, part of that is to organize your zone, accept your walks, utilize the whole field, that kind of stuff. So that would be the level that I think’s the next level for him.”

Will Baez have a season’s worth of at-bats to get that done? The versatile Cubs roster includes a couple guys who split time between the infield and outfield in Zobrist and Ian Happ. Getting their more consistent bats in the lineup might mean sacrificing Baez’s defense on certain days. Baez, of course, also has the ability to slide over to shortstop to spell Addison Russell, like he did when Russell was on the disabled list last season.

Until Baez learns how to navigate that strike zone a bit better, it might make Maddon more likely to mix and match other options, rather than considering him an everyday lock like Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.

But like Russell, Albert Almora Jr. and Willson Contreras, Baez is one of the young players who despite key roles on a championship contender the last few years still have big league growth to come. And Maddon thinks that growth is right around the corner.

“I want to believe you’re going to see that this year,” Maddon said. “They’ve had enough major league at-bats now, they should start making some significant improvements that are easy to recognize. The biggest thing normally is pitch selection, I think that’s where it really shows up. When you have talented players like that, that are very strong, quick, all that other stuff, if they’re swinging at strikes and taking balls, they’re going to do really well. And so it’s no secret with Javy. It’s no secret with Addy. Addy’s been more swing mode as opposed to accepting his walks. That’s part of the maturation process with those two guys. Albert I thought did a great job the last month, two months of getting better against righties. I thought Jason looked really good in the cage today. And Willson’s Willson.

“The natural assumption is these guys have played enough major league at-bats that you should see something different this year in a positive way.”

MLB.com's Cubs' 2018 Top Prospects list full of potential impact pitchers

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USA TODAY

MLB.com's Cubs' 2018 Top Prospects list full of potential impact pitchers

Could 2018 be the year that the Cubs finally see a top pitching prospect debut with the team? 

Thursday, MLB.com released its list of the Cubs' 2018 Top 30 Prospects, a group that includes six pitchers in the Top 10. The list ranks right-hander Adbert Alzolay as the Cubs' No 1. prospect, projecting him to debut with the team this season. 

Alzolay, 22, went 7-4 with a 2.99 ERA in 22 starts between Single-A Myrtle Beach and Double-A Tennessee last season. He also struck out 108 batters in 114 1/3 innings, using a repertoire that includes a fastball that tops out around 98 MPH (according to MLB.com).

Following Alzolay as the Cubs' No. 2 overall prospect is 19-year-old shortstop Aramis Ademan. Ademan hit .267 in just 68 games between Single-A Eugene and Single-A South Bend, though it should be noted that he has soared from No. 11 in MLB.com's 2017 ranks to his current No. 2 ranking. He is not projected to make his MLB debut until 2020, however.

Following Alzolay and Ademan on the list are five consecutive pitchers ranked 3-7, respectively. Oscar De La Cruz, No. 3 on the list, slides down from his 2017 ranking in which MLB.com listed him as the Cubs' top overall prospect. De La Cruz, 22, finished 2017 with a 3.34 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) between the Arizona League and Single-A Myrtle Beach.

De La Cruz is projected to make his MLB debut in 2019, while Jose Albertos (No. 4), Alex Lange (No. 5), Brendon Little (No. 6) and Thomas Hatch (No. 7) are projected to make their big league debuts in 2019 or 2020. All are right-handed (with the exception of Little) and starting pitchers.

Hatch (third round, 2016) and Lange (30th overall, 2017) and Little (27th overall, 2017) were all top draft picks by the Cubs in recent seasons.

Having numerous starting pitchers on the cusp of the big leagues represents a significant change of pace for the Cubs. 

Since Theo Epstein took over as team president in Oct. 2011, a plethora of top prospects have debuted and enjoyed success with the Cubs. Majority have been position players, though.

The likes of Albert Almora, Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell all contributed to the Cubs winning the World Series in 2016. Similarly, Ian Happ enjoyed a fair amount of success after making his MLB debut last season, hitting 24 home runs in just 115 games.

Ultimately, Alzolay would be the Cubs' first true top pitching prospect to make it to the big leagues in the Theo Epstein era. While him making it to the big leagues in 2018 is no guarantee, one would think a need for pitching will arise for the Cubs at some point, whether it be due to injury or simply for September roster expansion.

The Cubs have enjoyed tremendous success in recent years in terms of their top prospects succeeding in the MLB. If the trend continues, Alzolay should be a force to reckon with on the North Side for years to come.