White Sox

Can the Sox contend, Part 2: Dunn's rebound

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Can the Sox contend, Part 2: Dunn's rebound

In part one of this all-hope-is-not-lost series, we looked at how the Sox rotation will set up nicely if Jake Peavy can stay relatively healthy in 2012. Some may think keeping Peavy fresh is a daunting task, but perhaps not as much as the next key to a run at the division next year:

Get Adam Dunn back on track.

Dunn fell into the abyss last year after a decade of consistent tater-mashing, hitting fewer home runs (11) than in any season of his career -- including his 66-game rookie campaign. He was only a handful of at-bats away from posting the lowest single-season batting average in the history of Major League Baseball. And he was rated by FanGraphs as the worst player in the majors by a wide, wide margin.

So what reasons are there to think that Dunn can do much of anything in 2012?

The best statistical argument is that Dunn will experience a simple regression to the mean next season. That is to say, his 2011 season will continue to stand as an outlier. Even now, it's an outlier on Dunn's career trajectory, one that could still have Dunn angling for a Hall of Fame bid.

In plenty of cases, those outlier seasons remain just that -- outliers. Just ask Brady Anderson's 50 home runs in 1996 or Paul Konerko's .704 OPS in 2003. Sometimes, though, an seemingly innocuous outlier turns into a trend, either for good (Jose Bautista) or bad (Richie Sexson).

From a non-statistical standpoint, there are a few things working in Dunn's favor for next season. A new manager and hitting coach can't hurt. An entire offseason to clear his head should help as well. And now that he has a full year of DH'ing under his belt, perhaps Dunn will enter 2012 with a better plan of attack toward the mental aspect of not playing the field.

Consider how different the 2012 White Sox lineup could look like with a mildly successful (we're not talking about 40 home runs and a .380 OBP, think more like 25 home runs and a .340 OBP) Dunn hitting in the middle:

3. Paul Konerko 3. Paul Konerko
4. Adam Dunn 4. Dayan Viciedo
5. Dayan Viciedo 5. Alexei Ramirez? Alex Rios? A.J. Pierzynski?

Essentially, the team's No. 5 hitter -- one of the most important run-producing positions in the lineup -- goes from a hitter with enormous power potential to a handful of low-OBP guys with varying amounts of less-than-15-home-runs-per-season power. It's like replacing a potentially good No. 5 hitter with a bat more suited to hit seventh. That amounts to a huge difference when it comes to supporting a pitching staff.

2012 will be the most important season of Dunn's career. It's his chance to save his legacy and stay on Cooperstown's radar. It's also a chance for him to redeem himself with the White Sox -- because if performs well, maybe, just maybe, the Sox can make some noise in the AL Central.

If the White Sox success next season in pinned on Adam Dunn, that makes you _________. But before defaulting to responding with "horrified," at least consider the optimist's viewpoint.

Up close, White Sox see same big potential Cubs forecasted for Dylan Cease

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Up close, White Sox see same big potential Cubs forecasted for Dylan Cease

The Cubs made the Jose Quintana deal knowing it would have been more difficult to give up Dylan Cease if he was already performing at the Double-A level, and that the White Sox organization would be a good place to continue his education as a young pitcher.

While Eloy Jimenez keeps drawing ridiculous comparisons – the running total now includes Kris Bryant, Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz – Cease is more than just the other name prospect from the deal that shocked the baseball world during the All-Star break.

“We still project him as a starter,” White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said during this week’s GM meetings in Florida. “He certainly has the stuff where it’s easy to envision him as a potential dominant reliever. But to this point – for the foreseeable future – we deal with the starting and continue to develop him as a potential front-end arm.”

The Theo Epstein regime still hasn’t developed an impact homegrown pitcher, but that hasn’t stopped the Cubs from winning 292 games, six playoff rounds and a World Series title across the last three seasons, while still being in a strong position to win the National League Central again in 2018.

Without Quintana and his affordable contract that can run through 2020, Epstein’s front office might have been looking at the daunting possibility of trying to acquire three starting pitchers this winter.

While surveying a farm system in the middle of a natural downturn, Baseball America ranked seven pitchers on its top-10 list of prospects from the Cubs organization: Adbert Alzolay, Jose Albertos, Alex Lange, Oscar De La Cruz, Brendon Little, Thomas Hatch and Jen-Ho Tseng.

So far, only Alzolay, an Arizona Fall League Fall Star with seven starts for Double-A Tennessee on his resume, and Tseng, who made his big-league debut in September, have pitched above the A-ball level.

Cease – who went 0-8 with a 3.89 ERA for Class-A Kannapolis in his first nine starts in the White Sox system – has a 100-mph fastball and a big curveball and won’t turn 22 until next month. That stuff allowed Cease to pile up 126 strikeouts against 44 walks in 93.1 innings this year, putting him in the wave that includes Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Michael Kopech and Alec Hansen.

“Ideally, we have a lot of guys we project to be part of the future, very good, championship-caliber rotation,” Hahn said. “In an ideal world, there’s not going to be room at the inn for all of them. You only have five in that rotation and some of these guys will wind up in the bullpen. In reality, as players develop, you’re going to see some attrition.”

One spot after the White Sox grabbed Carlos Rodon with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 draft, the Cubs did Kyle Schwarber’s below-slot deal, using part of the savings to buy out Cease’s commitment to Vanderbilt University ($1.5 million bonus for a sixth-rounder) and supervise his recovery from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.

Cease was never going to be on the fast track to Wrigley Field, and now the White Sox hope he can be part of the foundation on the South Side, where it’s easier to sell a rebuild after watching the Cubs and Houston Astros become World Series champions.

“It doesn’t change really for us internally in terms of our commitment or focus or our plan or our timeline or anything along those lines,” Hahn said. “I do think, perhaps, it helps the fan base understand a little bit about what the process looks like, where other teams have been and how long the path they took to get to the ultimate goal of winning a World Series (was). In Chicago, many fans saw it firsthand with the Cubs.

“There are certainly more and more examples in the game over the last several years to help sort of show fans the path and justification for what we’re (doing).”

The White Sox just traded for a really intriguing arm

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USA TODAY

The White Sox just traded for a really intriguing arm

The White Sox continued their rebuild Thursday by trading for an intriguing young right-handed pitcher.

The South Siders acquired Thyago Vieira from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for international signing bonus pool money.

The 24-year-old Vieira is a Brazilian native and has only made one appearance in the big leagues, striking out a batter in one perfect inning of work in 2017.

While his career minor-league numbers don't jump off the page — 14-19 with a 4.58 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 13 saves and 7.4 K/9 in 290.2 innings \— Vieira has been reportedly clocked at 104 mph with his fastball and was ranked as the Mariners' No. 8 prospect at the time of the deal. He also held righties to .194 batting average in 2017.

Here's video of Vieira throwing gas:

And this may explain why Vieira was even available:

Control has been an issue throughout his career, as he's walked 4.6 batters per nine innings in the minors. He has improved in that regard over the last few seasons, however, walking only 22 batters in 54 innings across three levels in 2017 and he doled out only one free pass in 5.1 innings in the Arizona Fall League in 2016.

What does this deal mean in the big picture for baseball? How did the Sox pull off a move like this while not having to give up a player in return? 

This may help shed light on the situation from Baseball America's Kyle Glaser:

Either way, the White Sox may have just acquired a guy who could potentially throw his name in the hat for "future closer." Or at the very least, throw his name in the hat for "best name."