SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Notre Dame players will head to Philadelphia with a healthy respect for Temple’s defense, one that’s limited opponents to 14.6 per game (8th among FBS teams) and 4.38 yards per play (10th).
The Irish offense, meanwhile, is averaging 38.3 points per game (18th) and 7.31 yards per play (4th). But there’s more to this explosive-offense-against-stout-defense matchup than these surface-level stats.
Notre Dame’s offense struggled before the bye week in short-yardage running situations. The offense's stuff rate (via Football Study Hall), which tracks the percentage of runs for zero or negative yards, is 21.2 percent, 89th-lowest among FBS teams. That means a little more than one in every five times Notre Dame runs the ball, it’s stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage.
In its seven undefeated games, Temple’s defense stuffed opponents 28.8 percent of the time (31st). But the more concerning stat is Notre Dame’s issues when needing to gain two or fewer yards, and Temple’s defensive success in those situations.
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When needing to gain two or fewer yards on third down, fourth down or in first/second-and-goal scenarios, Notre Dame picks up the necessary yardage only 62.5 percent of the time (83rd). Temple has one of the best defenses in those spots, with opponents only converting on 47.1 percent of those plays (8th). An average offense/defense picks up/allows a first down/touchdown on about two of every three of those attempts; Temple’s defense is stuffing more than half of those tries.
The Cliff’s Notes version of this: Notre Dame’s short-yardage problems could become even worse against Temple’s defense on Saturday.
But so far, Notre Dame has been able to mitigate those third-and-short issues by ripping off loads of big plays. The Irish offense is averaging just under seven plays of 20 or more per game and has eight plays of 50 or more yards in its seven games. Will Fuller and C.J. Prosise are dynamic, game-breaking threats who’ve allowed Notre Dame to lean on its offense.
Against Temple’s defense, though, opponents averaged three plays of 20 or more yards per game and only have one play of 50 or more yards. This is a defense that doesn’t have its corners press much and generally keeps plays in front of it, holding opponents to 3.4 points per trip inside the 40-yard line (7th-best among FBS teams).
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Temple’s defensive profile certainly doesn’t appear favorable to Notre Dame. But here’s something that does: The Owls have compiled this success with a Sagarin strength of schedule ranking of 111. Notre Dame’s strength of schedule by the same rating is 19th.
Temple hasn’t faced an offense that’s close to as good as Notre Dame’s, which adds a wrinkle to what should be an fascinating battle between the Irish offense and Owls defense.