Separating Notre Dame from its pivotal season-ending trip to Stanford is a two-game stretch against bottom-feeding ACC opponents. Notre Dame, on paper, should win both games, starting with this weekend's senior day matchup with 3-6 Wake Forest.
Bill Connelly’s S&P+ ranks Wake Forest 97th (Notre Dame is sixth) and gives the Demon Deacons just a 4 percent chance of winning at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday. Second-year coach Dave Clawson may eventually turn this moribund program around — Wake Forest hasn’t finished a season over .500 since 2008 — but it’ll take a long time.
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For Notre Dame’s purposes, though, Wake Forest’s defense does present somewhat of a challenge and is one that’ll have to be taken seriously. The Demon Deacons are prone to allowing explosive plays — they’ve allowed 10 plays of 50 or more yards, tied for the ninth-highest total among FBS teams — which, as has been a problem with Notre Dame’s defense, has somewhat negated strong success on third down (opponents have a 30 percent third down success rate against Wake, 10th lowest).
Wake Forest’s third down success is predicated on forcing teams to pick up five or more yards in those spots. The Deacs’ defense ranks 29th in passing down S&P+, so even with DeShone Kizer and Will Fuller powering the aerial attack, the Irish may hit some turbulence if they rely on third-and-long conversions.
The problem, though, is that Wake Forest’s defense isn’t particularly disruptive. It only has 15 sacks in eight games (89th) and 53 tackles for a loss (73rd) and is dead last among FBS teams with seven forced turnovers. As long as Notre Dame is gaining solid yardage on first and second down, it shouldn’t have a problem hanging some points on Wake Forest (which allowed 50 in a road game at North Carolina earlier this year).
And even if Wake Forest’s defense does cobble together some success against Notre Dame’s offense, the Demon Deacons’ offense will be the worst faced group by the Irish defense to date, ranking 112th in S&P+ (Boston College ranks 123rd out of 128 teams). Wake Forest is averaging 18.7 points per game (116th) and has only 13 plays of 30 or more yards in nine games (113th). Its rushing offense is brutal, averaging 3.11 yards per carry, and quarterbacks Kendall Hinton and John Wolford have combined to throw 10 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
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Wake Forest is 3-6 and went 3-9 in Clawson’s first year. A team with legitimate playoff aspirations shouldn't let Wake Forest hang around — which Notre Dame didn't in 2012, when it beat the Demon Deacons, 38-0, on senior day.