Our computer says 49ers win 30-25 - NBC Sports

Our computer says 49ers win 30-25
January 29, 2013, 3:01 pm

Super Bowl history tells us that the 49ers will win the coin toss with tails and that the President will probably pick the Ravens to win.

History also says neither Ray Lewis nor any running backs will win the MVP award.

But amid the thousands of articles detailing a million different stats, tips, facts and betting options, how do you sort through the noise to find the truly important data?

For starters, you read this article and understand that there has never been a five-year winning streak for either heads or tails in the 46-year history of the coin toss. Since the past four games have seen heads, it only stands to reason that Super Bowl XLVIII will see tails .

San Francisco should win because the NFC almost always wins the coin toss (14 of the past 15 Super Bowls).

Brush up on more key pieces of Super Bowl information, courtesy of OddsShark.com. (See the latest NFL lines and spreads on all sports here at NBCSports .)

The Spread: opened at -5 for the Niners, but was down to -3.5 as of Tuesday.

Presidential prediction

One sportsbook made Baltimore the favorite to be President Obama's choice. The Ravens play near the Oval Office near Washington, DC. The president is from Chicago and probably hates the 49ers for beating his Bears.

Baltimore Ravens -200 (1/2)
San Francisco 49ers +150 (3/2)

Computer Prediction
OddsShark.com's super computer predicts a 30-25 win for the 49ers.

Wager on how much will be wagered in Vegas
With some much betting on the Super Bowl, small wonder you can actually bet on how much money will be bet. Sportsbooks made a prop bet with an over-under of $90.5 million. Last year, it was $93.89 million.

Running backs won't win the MVP
No running back has won the Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis at Super Bowl XXXII 15 years ago. Ray Rice and Frank Gore are both short odds, but the quarterbacks (Colin Kaepernick and Joe Flacco) and sentimental favorite Ray Lewis are shorter odds.

History says Lewis won't win as no defensive player has ever won the award twice and only seven have ever won it.

Anthem singer Keys goes long
Alicia Keys says she will make the Super Bowl national anthem a work of art. That prompted Bovada sportsbook - which pegged last year's anthem length at precisely 1:34 - to set a much higher over-under this time.

"I guess that makes us the unofficial best anthem handicappers around," manager Kevin Bradley said this week. The line was 2:15 but lots of under bettors pushed it down to 2:12. It would be nice to turn a profit before kickoff.

Jobless rate handicapping says Ravens will win
Get this. Twenty of the last 25 Super Bowls have been won by the city with a lower unemployment rate. According to this site , Baltimore's recent jobless rate was 7.2%, which all but guarantees they will defeat San Francisco, which had a rate of 8.2%.

The camel also likes the Ravens
Her owner says Princess the Camel is 6-1 picking Super Bowl winners. If we take his word and believe in the handicapping style of allowing an old camel to eat graham crackers from one hand or the other, then we will bet on Baltimore.

"I suppose it comes down to this question," said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com. "Are you more comfortable with a geezer camel's skills or a number-crunching, handicapping expert's skills? In a one-game playoff, the animal kingdom often performs just as well ."

Let's be clear - Gatorade odds
What color of liquid will be dumped on the head of the victorious Super Bowl coach? In recent years, yellow Gatorade has always been the favorite, but this year, `clear/water' is the top betting choice according to Bovada.

Clear/Water 7/4
Orange 5/2
Yellow 5/2
Green 13/2
Red 13/2
Blue 13/2

Conflicting Trends

  • NFC is 5-0 ATS past five years (take San Francisco)
  • Underdogs are 8-3 ATS past 11 years (take Baltimore)

Flacco a lock for MVP?
History tells us that if Joe Flacco doesn't throw a single pass, the Ravens should win and he will win the Super Bowl MVP award. How? Simple. Only five other quarterbacks in NFL playoff history have been as proficient as Flacco this season (eight TDs, no INTs).

In each instance, the team won the Super Bowl and the QB - when he threw at least eight TD passes without a pick - was Super Bowl MVP.

1989 Joe Montana 11-0
1994 Steve Young 9-0
2012 Joe Flacco *8-0
2009 Drew Brees 8-0
1992 Troy Aikman 8-0
1986 Phil Simms 8-0

Looking for a free Super Bowl contest to offer your party guests? Check it out.

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