Doesn't look good for 49ers at Pats - NBC Sports

Doesn't look good for 49ers at Pats
New England has been nearly unbeatable at home in December
December 15, 2012, 11:12 am

The New England Patriots haven't lost since the middle of October with a 7-0 SU and 4-2-1 ATS record over those seven games.

If that sounds impressive, consider this in your Week 15 pool or your Week 15 Vegas wager as they prepare for the NBC Sunday Nighter against the San Francisco 49ers: they own a streak three times as long at home.

In the past 21 home games in the month of December, Tom Brady has led the Patriots to a 21-0 SU record. So both winning streaks are on the line at Gillette Stadium with New England favored by 5.5 points at most sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark.com.

Football bettors and fans around the country thought that last Monday night's matchup between the Houston Texans and the New England Patriots was going to be a great game between two of the NFL's elite teams.

But only one elite team was on the field Monday night as the Patriots stomped the Texans 42-14. With the league's best offense averaging 36.3 points per game, the fact that the defense looks like it is starting to come around (allowing just 16.3 points per game over its last three games) does not bode well for the rest of the league.

Oddsmakers took notice by moving the Patriots to the top of the Super Bowl 47 odds menu at 3/1, while dropping the Texans to 6/1.

Those same line experts have pushed the over-under higher as well this week, after it opened at 46. The reason is quite simple on two fronts: the betting public loves betting OVER the total and the Patriots are riding two huge OVER trends.

In their past 11 games, the Pats are 10-1 favoring the OVER. In their past 10 games as a favorite, the OVER is 9-1.

Now we get to see what Colin Kaepernick is made of. Kaepernick has led the team to a solid 3-1 SU and ATS record over his four starts, but then the 49ers were 6-2-1 SU and 5-4 ATS before he took over as starter for Alex Smith. They are 5-1 ATS in their past six games as an underdog.

To this point in his young career, Kaepernick has solid wins in torching Chicago at home and going on the road to beat New Orleans, but neither compares to a December game in Foxborough.

San Francisco has been a strong road team since Jim Harbaugh has taken over as head coach with a record of 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS. But when it comes to Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the month of December, there is no equal; the Patriots are 22-1 SU in their last 23 home games in December.

It is quite possible that the 49ers can hang with the Patriots, especially if they are able to get consistent pressure on Tom Brady. And there are no real NFL injury reports of note as of Friday to impact a major line move.

But with the way this offense is churning both on the ground and in the passing game this season, and a cross-country trip into the cold for San Francisco, this game points to another business-as-usual win for the Pats.

PICK: New England -5.5 (courtesy of PickShark.com )



Slideshow

Channel Finder