As NFL betting trends go, this is about as weird as they come.
But if it hits for a fifth straight year, bettors can get the wager today as a 50/1 longshot.
What is this mysterious angle that has been a long-shot payoff the past four years and what is the team to bet on? Naturally, it’s the San Diego Chargers winning the Super Bowl.
The Bolts roster looks like a shell of its dominant form from several years ago and online sportsbooks have them as a distant third betting choice to even win the AFC West. But there is one undeniable fact that favors the Chargers.
San Diego travels to Philadelphia in Week 2, after their home Monday Nighter against Houston. In the past four seasons, the team playing the Eagles in their home opener won the Super Bowl. None was the preseason favorite to win it all.
Check it out. The Ravens were a 30/1 Super Bowl long shot last season and they lost a close game to the Eagles. A year earlier in 2011, the New York Giants were in Philly in Week 3, the home opener for the Eagles.
Turn the clock back another year to 2010 and the Green Bay Packers won Week 1 in Philly and went on to win the Super Bowl. In 2009, the New Orleans Saints won the Super Bowl. Guess who played in Philly’s home opener?
In 2008, the Rams got hammered 38-3 in Week by the Eagles and they finished 2-14, just missing the playoffs.
UNDER is 5-1 past 6 Week 1 games
7-1 SU past 8 trips to St. Louis
3-20 SU past 23 games as road underdog
Atlanta 3-11 SU mark in 14 games vs New Orleans
Five straight meetings at New Orleans played OVER the total
11-4 ATS in Week 1 since 1997
Covered 5 straight Week 1 games
OVER is 7-2 past 9 Bills September games
6-2 ATS past 8 season openers
1-18 SU past 19 matches vs Patriots
1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS past 9 at home to Pats
2-8 ATS past 10 Week 1 games
7-2 ATS streak as an underdog
Played 5 straight UNDERs when Week 1 at home
7-2 ATS past 9 September road games (OVER 7-2)
Bengals 8-3-1 ATS past 12 September games
2-11-1 ATS past 14 season openers
UNDER 11-2-1 past 14 season openers
Cowboys 5-1 ATS past 6 Week 1 games
1-5 SU & ATS past 6 at home vs Giants
Cowboys 2-12 ATS mark in their past 14 games within the NFC East
In the role as favorite, Detroit plays OVER the total (12-1 past 13 games).
Green Bay Packers
5-1 ATS past 6 season openers
Played 4 straight UNDERs when Game 1 on road
7-3 ATS past 10 games as underdog
Texans 6-1 ATS past 7 September games
OVER is 16-4 past 20 September games
0-5 ATS past 5 MNF games
0-5 ATS past 5 Week 1 games
Colts won and covered five straight as chalk
12-2 ATS past 14 season openers
8-1 ATS when open season at home
UNDER 5-1 past 6 Jaguars home games in September
Kansas City Chiefs
OVER is 5-1 past 6 Week 1 games on the road
0-6 SU & ATS past 6 games as a favorite (through 2012)
The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS as chalk
Chiefs have not been a road favorite since 2010.
2-7-1 ATS past 10 season openers
8-3 ATS past 11 season openers
Minnesota 1-10 SU, 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 within NFC North
5-1 ATS when open the season on the road
New England Patriots
18-1 SU past 19 games vs Bills
OVER is 9-2 past 11 September games
8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS past 9 trips to Buffalo
New Orleans Saints
OVER is 5-1 past 6 Saints season openers
New York Giants
5-1 SU & ATS past 6 trips to Dallas
8-2 ATS past 10 games as an underdog
New York Jets
OVER is 7-2 past 9 September games
2-12 SU past 14 games as an underdog
Lost 7 in a row as an underdog (1-6 ATS).
UNDER is 7-1 past 8 Week 1 games
Played 6 straight UNDERs when open season on road
OVER 5-1-1 past 7 MNF games (Sept. 9 vs Redskins)
1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS past 9 games as underdog
Played 6 straight September OVERs
3-8 ATS past 11 games as a favorite
San Diego Chargers
OVER is 8-2 past 10 September road games
San Francisco 49ers
7-2-1 past 10 season openers
9-3-1 ATS past 13 September games
OVER is 8-1 past 9 games as a favorite
St. Louis Rams
2-10 ATS past 12 season openers
1-7 SU past 8 at home to Arizona
1-6 ATS past 7 games as favorite
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
UNDER is 8-2 past 10 season openers
UNDER is 10-1 past 11 September games
6-2 ATS past 8 road games
UNDER is 6-1 past 7 season openers
UNDER is 7-1 past 8 Week 1 games when on the road
9-2-1 ATS past 12 games in September
12-2 ATS past 14 games within NFC East
3-10 SU past 13 home games vs Eagles