NFL Week 1 trends: Chargers will win Super Bowl? - NBC Sports

NFL Week 1 trends: Chargers will win Super Bowl?
Odd pattern suggests underwhelming San Diego should be Super Bowl favorite
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If form of the past four years holds, Philip Rivers and San Diego should be Super Bowl XLVIII champions.
September 4, 2013, 3:30 pm

As NFL betting trends go, this is about as weird as they come.

But if it hits for a fifth straight year, bettors can get the wager today as a 50/1 longshot.

What is this mysterious angle that has been a long-shot payoff the past four years and what is the team to bet on? Naturally, it’s the San Diego Chargers winning the Super Bowl.

Seriously?

The Bolts roster looks like a shell of its dominant form from several years ago and online sportsbooks have them as a distant third betting choice to even win the AFC West. But there is one undeniable fact that favors the Chargers.

San Diego travels to Philadelphia in Week 2, after their home Monday Nighter against Houston. In the past four seasons, the team playing the Eagles in their home opener won the Super Bowl. None was the preseason favorite to win it all.

Check it out. The Ravens were a 30/1 Super Bowl long shot last season and they lost a close game to the Eagles. A year earlier in 2011, the New York Giants were in Philly in Week 3, the home opener for the Eagles.

Turn the clock back another year to 2010 and the Green Bay Packers won Week 1 in Philly and went on to win the Super Bowl. In 2009, the New Orleans Saints won the Super Bowl. Guess who played in Philly’s home opener?

In 2008, the Rams got hammered 38-3 in Week by the Eagles and they finished 2-14, just missing the playoffs.

Some more tangible and logical NFL trends, courtesy of OddsShark.com’s NFL database and check out the current Week 1 NFL odds here at NBCSports.

Arizona Cardinals

UNDER is 5-1 past 6 Week 1 games

7-1 SU past 8 trips to St. Louis

3-20 SU past 23 games as road underdog

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta 3-11 SU mark in 14 games vs New Orleans

Five straight meetings at New Orleans played OVER the total

11-4 ATS in Week 1 since 1997

Baltimore Ravens

Covered 5 straight Week 1 games

Buffalo Bills

OVER is 7-2 past 9 Bills September games

6-2 ATS past 8 season openers

1-18 SU past 19 matches vs Patriots

1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS past 9 at home to Pats

Carolina Panthers

2-8 ATS past 10 Week 1 games

7-2 ATS streak as an underdog

Chicago Bears

Played 5 straight UNDERs when Week 1 at home

Cincinnati Bengals

7-2 ATS past 9 September road games (OVER 7-2)

Bengals 8-3-1 ATS past 12 September games

Cleveland Browns

2-11-1 ATS past 14 season openers

UNDER 11-2-1 past 14 season openers

Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys 5-1 ATS past 6 Week 1 games

1-5 SU & ATS past 6 at home vs Giants

Cowboys 2-12 ATS mark in their past 14 games within the NFC East

Denver Broncos

No trends

Detroit Lions

In the role as favorite, Detroit plays OVER the total (12-1 past 13 games).

Green Bay Packers

5-1 ATS past 6 season openers

Played 4 straight UNDERs when Game 1 on road

7-3 ATS past 10 games as underdog

Houston Texans

Texans 6-1 ATS past 7 September games

OVER is 16-4 past 20 September games

0-5 ATS past 5 MNF games

Indianapolis Colts

0-5 ATS past 5 Week 1 games

Colts won and covered five straight as chalk

Jacksonville Jaguars

12-2 ATS past 14 season openers

8-1 ATS when open season at home

UNDER 5-1 past 6 Jaguars home games in September

Kansas City Chiefs

OVER is 5-1 past 6 Week 1 games on the road

0-6 SU & ATS past 6 games as a favorite (through 2012)

The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS as chalk

Chiefs have not been a road favorite since 2010.

Miami Dolphins

2-7-1 ATS past 10 season openers

Minnesota Vikings

8-3 ATS past 11 season openers

Minnesota 1-10 SU, 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 within NFC North

5-1 ATS when open the season on the road

New England Patriots

18-1 SU past 19 games vs Bills

OVER is 9-2 past 11 September games

8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS past 9 trips to Buffalo

New Orleans Saints

OVER is 5-1 past 6 Saints season openers

New York Giants

5-1 SU & ATS past 6 trips to Dallas

8-2 ATS past 10 games as an underdog

New York Jets

OVER is 7-2 past 9 September games

2-12 SU past 14 games as an underdog

Oakland Raiders

Lost 7 in a row as an underdog (1-6 ATS).

Philadelphia Eagles

UNDER is 7-1 past 8 Week 1 games

Played 6 straight UNDERs when open season on road

OVER 5-1-1 past 7 MNF games (Sept. 9 vs Redskins)

1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS past 9 games as underdog

Pittsburgh Steelers

Played 6 straight September OVERs

3-8 ATS past 11 games as a favorite

San Diego Chargers

OVER is 8-2 past 10 September road games

San Francisco 49ers

7-2-1 past 10 season openers

9-3-1 ATS past 13 September games

OVER is 8-1 past 9 games as a favorite

Seattle Seahawks

St. Louis Rams

2-10 ATS past 12 season openers

1-7 SU past 8 at home to Arizona

1-6 ATS past 7 games as favorite

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

UNDER is 8-2 past 10 season openers

UNDER is 10-1 past 11 September games

6-2 ATS past 8 road games

Tennessee Titans

UNDER is 6-1 past 7 season openers

UNDER is 7-1 past 8 Week 1 games when on the road

Washington Redskins

9-2-1 ATS past 12 games in September

12-2 ATS past 14 games within NFC East

3-10 SU past 13 home games vs Eagles