Sometimes every trend, pattern and indicator point you in one direction and you start wondering whether it’s too good to be true.
Washington Redskin fans are surely looking at their NBC Sunday Nighter through this lens as trend after trend in Week 6 point to their upsetting the Dallas Cowboys.
“Bettors who rely on trends to predict the future are wondering what they are missing here, because head-to-head and divisional angles all point to the Redskins,” said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com, which provides odds to NBCSports.
“And they are coming off a bye week so they should be rested, healed and well-prepared against a team that is surely suffering a letdown after nearly beating Denver a week ago.”
Indeed, Washington is 6-0 against the spread in their last six trips to Dallas. Overall, the Redskins are 11-2 ATS in the past 13 meetings with their NFC East rivals.
Dallas was a 5.5-point home favorite at most books monitored by OddsShark.com as of Thursday. The total was hovering near 52.
While the Cowboys have won twice as a home favorite in 2013, but prior to that they had lost eight straight when laying points at home. It was by far the worst spread record for home favorites before they started reversing the trend this year.
And in divisional play, the Redskins own the favorable trends as well. They are 6-1 ATS in their past seven vs NFC East foes, which stands in stark contrast to the Dallas mark of 1-7 ATS in their past eight at home vs divisional opponents.
Robert Griffin III, who has struggled to return to his rookie form after suffering an ACL tear in the playoffs, will surely benefit from the extra rest. He rallied the Redskins over Oakland before the bye week.
With the NFC East wide-open and with none of the four teams looking good, there is plenty of motivation for each team beyond the usual rivalry situation. A Washington win coupled with a Philadelphia loss in Tampa Bay would create a three-way tie atop the division.
The OddsShark.com NFL picks computer has predicted a 28-20 win for Dallas.