Vicar's in Trouble
Post Position: 1
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Owner: Kenneth L. and Sarah K. Ramsey
Form: A wire-to-wire winner of the Louisiana Derby by three and a half lengths, Vicar's In Trouble did it while setting a fast early pace. Indeed, BRIS assigned the 'second call' E2 Pace Rating of +10 for the Louisiana Derby, indicating that it was a race run fast early and slow late. The good news? Early speed horses rarely perform well in races run that way. The bad news? The pace in the Kentucky Derby should be even faster, the distance will be a furlong longer, and he will need to carry more weight. If Vicar's In Trouble was tiring so much late in his brave Louisiana Derby win, he will be exhausted in the stretch at Churchill Downs.
Pedigree: Vicar's In Trouble is sired by Into Mischief, the same sire of Goldencents and Vyjack. He is out of a Vicar mare who was primarily a sprinter. This is a good miler pedigree -- but certainly not a distance pedigree.
Speed: Vicar's In Trouble was assigned a career best 104 Brisnet.com Speed Rating last out. He broke his maiden with a dazzling 103 Rating while sprinting six furlongs over a wet track.
Red Flags: Tactical versatility is the biggest one. They tried to rate him in the Risen Star stakes, and he could only manage a third place finish beaten five and half lengths as the 2/1 favorite. This horse has a sprinter/miler pedigree and has been more successful as a free running speed horse.
-Doug Salvatore, Brisnet.com