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No unbeatens in title game? Quite possible

Wild season has superpowers tumbling like bowling pins

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Matthew Stafford and the Georgia Bulldogs are still contenders for the BCS title game, writes college football Expert Joey Johnston.
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ASK THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL EXPERT
By Joey Johnston
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 5:51 p.m. ET Oct. 3, 2008

Joey Johnston
One loss used to be catastrophic. One loss used to signal a time to readjust your goals. One loss used to snuff out national-title dreams.

Now it means … nothing?

That’s what we’re thinking. No. 10-ranked South Florida’s 26-21 home loss against Pittsburgh on Thursday night reduced the number of Division I-A unbeaten teams to 17. Nine of them reside in either the Big 12 or SEC. It would easy to project those conferences colliding in Miami. But there’s nothing easy about it. Expect another season of attrition, where the superpowers beat up on each other and one-loss teams scheme and dream about climbing back into the title picture.

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And if that wacky scenario exists — hard to deny it after four unbeaten top 10-ranked teams all lost on the same September weekend — guess where that leads?

USC can climb back in it.

Georgia can climb back in it.

Florida can climb back in it.

Even (gasp!) Ohio State can climb back in it.

It’s probably too much to ask of South Florida (5-1), though, which blew what looked like a magnificent opportunity to climb through the polls. Coach Jim Leavitt’s Bulls got to No. 2 in the nation last season with six straight wins and the perfect storm of circumstances drowning everybody else. Alas, then came a three-game losing streak, and that was that for unlikely national-title hopes.

Here we go again?

Not exactly. Until Thursday night, it looked like the Bulls would be favored in every remaining game until Dec. 6, when they visit West Virginia, a team they have defeated two straight times.

South Florida sure looked like it could take care of business in the Big East, which is off to an underwhelming start.

Maybe the team to watch now is Pittsburgh (4-1), which has gathered itself after an inexplicable opening-game home loss against Bowling Green.

Who else could grab the BCS bowl bid from the Big East? Probably West Virginia, which entered the season with a full head of steam, then was dominated by East Carolina and lost its way at Colorado. Maybe Connecticut (5-0), which reached the top 25, but lost its quarterback to injury for nearly two months.

Elsewhere? Cincinnati has similar missing-quarterback woes. Louisville looks to be on the downslide. Rutgers has regressed badly. Syracuse is hopeless.

Not a pretty picture. It’s a long, long way from 2006, when the league featured a November showcase, unbeaten Louisville against unbeaten West Virginia. The Big East is back in the position of justifying its existence among the BCS conferences.

The opening was there for South Florida, the final addition after the Big East lost Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College to the ACC. Back then, Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese said his research indicated big things were possible at South Florida, and that led to him championing the relative football neophytes.

Until the loss against Pittsburgh, there was plenty to like.

The Bulls have a junior quarterback, Matt Grothe, who had avoided his inconsistency of old. He was making plays, staying away from crushing interceptions, and driving defensive coordinators crazy with his scrambling ability. He has a fleet of skill-position players at his disposal. So many, in fact, that it’s impossible to suggest a go-to guy in the bunch.

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There were some worries early on, when the Bulls collapsed late in regulation at Central Florida before winning in overtime, when they fell behind 20-3 against Kansas, when they struggled at Florida International.

That was thought to be South Florida’s bad patch. Nope. Along came Pittsburgh.

Now it’s back to the superpowers tumbling like bowling pins.

One-loss team in the BCS Championship Game? Maybe a pair of one-loss teams?

When it happens, don’t act so surprised this time.

You have been warned. You can see it coming.

Q: OK, who wins the Pac-10 now?
— Paul Curtis from Napa, Calif.
A: I’ll go out on a limb, Paul.

How about the USC Trojans?

Um, that’s not really going out on a limb.

I know, I know, USC is supposedly reeling after its 27-21 loss at Oregon State. And if I was a USC fan, I’d be somewhat concerned about the Trojans’ inexplicable underachievement as heavy favorites (they were 25-point faves against the Beavers and lost to Stanford last season while giving 41 points — ouch!)

But no team in the Pac-10 has a better collection of talent. USC (2-1, 0-1) faces Oregon (4-0, 2-0) on Saturday night, and the Ducks have an opportunity to put the Trojans in a tough spot. USC hasn’t lost back-to-back conference games since Pete Carroll’s first season (2001).

The Trojans are going to rebound strongly. I didn’t buy into all the “nobody is going to beat USC’’ talk that was so rampant following the spanking of Ohio State. This isn’t a vintage USC team, but it’s one more than capable of capturing the Pac-10.

I’ll be stunned if it doesn’t happen — even considering the stunner we witnessed in Corvallis.


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