On Thursday we took a look at the six players who might make up the back end of the first round of standard scoring fantasy football drafts next summer, noting how much different the first 12 picks will look in 2014 (see story).
We had a wide receiver trio at No. 12, Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell at No. 11, Knowshon Moreno 10th, Eddie Lacy ninth, Jimmy Graham eighth and Marshawn Lynch seventh.
Let’s take a look at the top half of the first round:
6. Calvin Johnson
Megatron falls to this spot seemingly every year -- middle of the first round, between picks six and eight.
It was yet another dominant fantasy season for the Lions’ freakish wideout, as he posted 84 catches for 1,492 yards and 12 TDs in just 14 games. As with Graham, just imagine what he would have done had he been healthy all season.
Johnson averaged about 1½ fewer targets per game than he did last season, but was still the obvious focal point of the Detroit offense. Double-teams don’t matter. Pace of game doesn’t matter. He’s as safe as it gets when it comes to wide receivers, and in 2014 will again be the clear-cut No. 1 choice.
Interesting that neither of the top two fantasy receivers -- Johnson at 220.20 points and Josh Gordon at 219.20 -- played a full season.
5. Matt Forte
What a consistently productive season for Forte -- double-digits in 14 of 16 weeks and 70 catches to go along with 267 carries.
He was a workhorse in the first year under offensive guru Marc Trestman, who also pulled a career year out of Josh McCown and a breakout campaign from Alshon Jeffery.
Forte rendered backup thumper Michael Bush obsolete this season, rushing for seven touchdowns and scoring two more through the air.
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Forte had over 100 total yards in 13 of 15 games this season, failing to reach that mark against only the Lions’ stingy run defense and the Eagles in a blowout loss.
Some may fear his 2013 workload, but Forte has bulked up throughout his six-year NFL career to become the feature, every-down back he is today. He’s an easy top-five selection next season.
4. Peyton Manning
This depends entirely on how many points your league awards for passing touchdowns. If it’s four points, we could see Manning going behind Forte. If it’s six points, we could see him going first or second overall.
Think that’s crazy? Consider this: In four-point passing TD leagues, Manning scored 64 more points than any other player. He averaged more than 4.0 points per week more than the next-best QB, Drew Brees.
Now, the big question is whether Manning will repeat this performance, and the safe answer is no … it was the best statistical season any quarterback has ever had. But he does still have all of his weapons, and Demaryius Thomas (26), Julius Thomas (25) and Eric Decker (26) are all in their primes. Wes Welker will still be under contract, too.
Manning will also have left tackle Ryan Clady back next season, which should help his protection and timing.
Even if you don’t think Manning is capable of coming close to his 51-TD, 5,000-plus yard fantasy season, it’s also no sure thing that Jamaal Charles scores 20 touchdowns next year, either.
The bottom line is that Manning is again a top-five pick after several years of fantasy moving away from the strategy of taking a QB early.
3. Adrian Peterson
The consensus 2013 No. 1 overall pick didn’t have a bad season by any stretch, but five running backs did top him in points during the fantasy season. With 206.20 points, Peterson was behind Moreno, Lynch, Forte, LeSean McCoy and Charles.
Despite facing eight- and nine-man fronts behind an offensive line that regressed and a fragile, three-quarterback situation, Peterson had 1,437 total yards and 11 TDs while missing one game and most of another.
Like Johnson, you know that the numbers will be there with Peterson no matter how much trouble befalls his offense.
And if you have a top-three pick next summer, you’ll feel much more comfortable than you did last season, when there was no consensus No. 2 or No. 3 selection.
2. LeSean McCoy
Based purely on system, McCoy could be the No. 1 pick in drafts next year. Chip Kelly loves to run the ball, and Shady is brilliant behind the game’s most athletic and active offensive line.
McCoy has caused 55 missed tackles this season, second only to Peterson. He leads the NFL with 1,476 rushing yards and also has 51 catches, 536 yards and 10 total TDs.
He’s just such a home-run hitter, and that is especially important based on how easily his team’s offense moves the ball. Kelly likes to keep McCoy fresh, but it doesn’t really cost his stat lines. Through 15 weeks, McCoy had about four times as many carries as Bryce Brown.
1. Jamaal Charles
The only reason we put McCoy behind Charles is that Charles is the focal point of his offense both on the ground and through the air, and the Chiefs’ system is conducive to check-downs.
Charles has nine more TDs through 15 weeks than McCoy and 32 fewer total yards. You can’t go wrong with either one next season.
It will come down to what you personally value more next summer: the 19 TDs Charles scored in the 2013 fantasy season and your faith in him repeating it, or the mind-boggling numbers McCoy could continue to put up in Kelly’s warp-speed offense.