Eagles at Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox
Ravens favored by 5.5; over-under 40
Losers of four straight and six of seven, the Carson Wentz-led Eagles travel Sunday to a stadium where no opposing rookie quarterback has won a game since 2008.
The Ravens' perennially stout defense has held rookie QBs to an 0-7 record, a 52.4 percent completion rate, 211 passing yards per game, three TDs, nine INTs and a QB rating of 60.6 since John Harbaugh took over as head coach.
Good luck, Carson — you're going to be dropping back a lot again on Sunday.
Don't run on the Ravens
What makes the Ravens' defense so good? It starts with stopping the run. Baltimore has allowed just 981 rushing yards in 13 games, the only team in the NFL under 1,000. They Ravens have allowed an NFL-low 3.4 yards per rush and an NFL-low five rushing TDs.
Baltimore allows just 75.5 rushing yards per game, 26 fewer than the Eagles, who are middle-of-the-pack.
The Ravens, who use a 3-4, rotate five defensive linemen and all have been above-average in the run game. Starting defensive ends Timmy Jernigan and Lawrence Guy rank 5th and 7th among all 3-4 defensive ends against the run at Pro Football Focus. Jernigan's had two very good weeks in a row, also affecting the passing game against the Patriots and Dolphins.
NFL
Outside linebacker Terrell Suggs can still get after the quarterback, but pass rush has been the one overall weakness of this Baltimore D. Suggs, in Year 14, has eight sacks and three forced fumbles.
Eyes on Ertz
The Ravens are among the NFL's best at stopping opposing tight ends. No TE has eclipsed 70 yards against them and only three have scored — Martellus Bennett, Tyler Eifert, and Browns backup Seth DeValve.
The main reasons the Ravens are so successful stopping tight ends are inside linebacker C.J. Mosley and safeties Eric Weddle and Lardarius Webb, a converted corner.
Mosley, a dynamic LB, has three interceptions and three pass breakups in addition to being a sound tackler.
And Weddle, in his first year in Baltimore after nine in San Diego, is playing some of the best football of his career approaching his 32nd birthday. He's been targeted 20 times this season and allowed just 12 catches, intercepting four passes and breaking up three others. He's rejuvenated his career after fleeing a weak San Diego defense for this strong unit in Baltimore.
Zach Ertz has been the Eagles' most consistent weapon lately. He had 10 catches for 112 yards against Washington, giving him 42 receptions for 414 yards and two TDs over his last six games. Those 42 catches are most by a tight end over the last six weeks and fifth-most by any pass-catcher.
Ertz's average game over this span has been seven catches for 60 yards. That's going to be tough to come by vs. the Ravens, considering only two tight ends have had more than five catches against them all year. (One was Jordan Reed, an athletic marvel who also lines up out wide. The other was Larry Donnell, who turned his six catches into only 34 yards.)
Still, with the weakness of the Eagles' outside receivers and the inconsistency of their running game, they'll likely need to target Ertz and Trey Burton anyway.
Burton has flown under the radar but been one of the Eagles' more reliable players of late. Wentz has targeted him a whopping 19 times the last two weeks and Burton has 12 catches for 118 yards.
Altogether, Wentz has targeted his three tight ends exactly 50 times the last two games. Hardly seems possible. He and Doug Pederson will need a different plan of attack at M&T Bank Stadium.
Receivers vs. DBs
Tavon Young, the rookie from Temple, has had an impressive NFL introduction on the opposite side of Smith. He did struggle against the Giants, Cowboys and Steelers, but the Eagles don't have an Odell Beckham, Dez Bryant or Antonio Brown.
In the slot, the Ravens usually roll with Jerraud Powers, though Weddle comes down on certain occasions. Based on QB rating allowed, Powers has been the fourth-best slot corner in the NFL this season, per PFF.
Even without CB Jimmy Smith (ankle), this is the third-best secondary the Eagles have faced, behind the Seahawks and Vikings.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens' top receivers are Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman and tight end Dennis Pitta.
Wallace and Perriman do most of their work on deep balls — Joe Flacco's specialty — so three-receiver sets will be challenging for the Eagles to defend. Especially given their recent ineffectiveness limiting X-plays.
Smith is still as physical as any WR in the game. Even at 37, he still has enough shake to make a DB look silly, and tackling him can be an adventure. He's going to draw Nolan Carroll most of the time, with Perriman or Wallace on Leodis McKelvin.
Smith and Wallace also move into the slot, but Kamar Aiken is usually the inside man on three- or four-receiver sets.
Pitta is a checkdown option. He catches a lot of six-, seven-yard passes.
Flacco has also involved rookie running back Kenneth Dixon a lot lately in the passing game. Dixon, who has been outsnapping Terrance West (a bigger, one-cut RB), has 16 catches in his last three games.
Prediction
Just don't see a path to victory for the Eagles. The Ravens are going to make them one-dimensional early and have more talent on defense than the Eagles do on offense.
With Baltimore's strength against tight ends, at least one and probably two Eagles wide receivers need to have a big day. Not exactly something to count on.
I do think the Eagles' defensive line will bounce back and get to Flacco a few times in addition to limiting Dixon and West, but the Ravens have one of the better pass blocking O-lines in the NFL with Marshal Yanda on one side and Ricky Wagner the other.
Ravens 24, Eagles 13