Flyers

End to End: Expectations for Ivan Provorov in Year 2 with Flyers

End to End: Expectations for Ivan Provorov in Year 2 with Flyers

Throughout the offseason, we'll ask questions about the Flyers to our resident hockey analysts and see what they have to say.

Going End to End today are CSNPhilly.com reporters John Boruk, Tom Dougherty, Jordan Hall and Greg Paone.

The topic: Expectations for Ivan Provorov in Year 2.

Boruk
"He's the best player I've ever played with by a mile."

That was Nolan Patrick's assessment of Provorov following two seasons of junior hockey with the Brandon Wheat Kings.

There's an indescribable maturity you quickly sense in talking with Provorov, and that mentality carries over onto the ice. Nineteen-year-olds simply don't grasp the speed, the decision-making, the mental grind and some of the other elements that come with being an NHL defenseman. Some of the little things he does are so impressive — for example, his stick work along the boards in separating an attacker from the puck, and at times, he had to bail out his playing partner during times of trouble.

Provorov led all Flyers in ice time, averaging just less than 22 minutes a game. He was a minus-9 through his first 11 games, and then impressively, he started to make the necessary adjustments and proceeded to finish a plus-2 over the final 71 games. By December, Provorov was utilized in all situations and was playing some big minutes. He finished ninth in Calder Trophy voting, which I thought was a little low considering how much he improved (although there were some expected dips) as the season wore on.

So what's a reasonable expectation for Provorov entering his sophomore season and should we have some concern considering the regression we saw from Shayne Gostisbehere from Year 1 to Year 2? I believe Provorov will actually trend in the other direction and elevate his performance this upcoming season. I would expect Provorov's ice time to jump somewhere close to 24 minutes a game and possibly more depending on how the prospects adjust to the NHL.

I think the noticeable improvement in Provorov's game will come on the offensive side. At the beginning of last season, Dave Hakstol was mindful of not giving Provorov too much responsibility as to overwhelm the rookie. He saw very little power-play time, but with the injury to Mark Streit came opportunity, and Provorov seemed right at home quarterbacking the PP unit. Of his six goals and 30 points, only five points came on the power play, where NHL defensemen can really pad the stat sheet. For Provorov, I'm predicting a double-digit goal total while setting the bar at 45-50 points. While that won't put him in the Norris Trophy conversation, Provorov's second season will ultimately prove he is one of the top young defensemen in the league, and within five to 10 years, he will become the Flyers' first $10 million player based on average annual value.

Dougherty
It’s not too often a 19-year-old establishes himself as a team’s best defenseman in his rookie campaign, but that was the case last season with Provorov and the Flyers. Provorov became just the third rookie — Gostisbehere (2015-16) and Norm Barnes (1979-80) — and youngest to win the Barry Ashbee Award as the team’s best defenseman. 

Provorov not only entrenched himself as the Flyers’ No. 1 defenseman for now and the future but also was one of the top rookies in the NHL last season despite not posting eye-popping numbers (six goals, 24 assists). He led the Flyers in ice time at 21:58 per night, which was second among all NHL rookies last season to Toronto’s Nikita Zaitsev (22:01). Additionally, Provorov led all rookie defenseman with 2:49 per game on the penalty kill and was 10th with 1:40 per game on the power play. He earned the trust of Hakstol rather quickly and outside of Game 3 of the season in Chicago, he didn’t have any blaring bad games.

So what should we expect from Provorov in Year 2? I’m expecting a huge jump in his sophomore season. Unlike with Gostisbehere — I thought he had the most to lose entering his second season — I don’t see Provorov facing the same dilemma as Gostisbehere. Gostisbehere’s rookie season was unforgettable, and he entered last season with lofty expectations to produce offensively but also had intricacies in his own end that he had to work on. Gostisbehere had a solid second year but not without adversity.

With Provorov, his game is far more mature than his age. His offensive numbers were more than respectable for a first-year player — 30 points in 82 games. There was always a subtle play each game where you would be in awe, whether it was a poke check, blocked shot or a denied zone entry. I think his play will be only stronger in his own end in 2017-18.

As for the offensive numbers, I believe we’ll see a big jump from the 30 points in Year 2. I’m not going to say a Drew Doughty jump — Doughty went from 27 points in Year 1 to 59 points in Year 2 — but somewhere in between. He’ll lead the team again in time on ice, and I wouldn’t be totally shocked if the Flyers were to give him the vacant ‘A,’ either.

I’m expecting a lot from Provorov this season, but I think we all are. I think at this point next year, we’ll be talking about a bona-fide top-pair defenseman. He’s that good.

Hall
What was so impressive about Provorov's rookie season was how quickly the 19-year-old adjusted to the NHL level.

If you recall, he had a rough go of it through his first 11 games, a stretch in which he was a minus-9. But the rest of the way, Provorov was excellent. Over the final 71 games, he was everything you want in a defenseman, while putting up 25 points (six goals, 19 assists) and a plus-2 rating. On the season, he led the Flyers in ice time at 21:58 per night — a franchise rookie record.

So what should we expect in Year 2? Could a sophomore slump even be possible?

"I don't see Provy having any problems next year," Gostisbehere said in April. "If he does, they'll be minor."

I agree with Gostisbehere. Listen, Provorov will hit a few speed bumps like any other player, but his game and work ethic really are so mature that struggles don't linger. Once he makes a mistake, seldom do you see him make it again.

If anything, I expect another solid season for Provorov but with some added offense in a greater power-play role. I foresee double-digit goals and around 40 points.

But as long as he continues to shine in his own zone and lead by example for the Flyers' young defensemen, everyone should be happy with this kid in Year 2.

Paone
Provorov, in his age 19-20 season, was far and away the Flyers' best defenseman last year in his rookie campaign. He displayed such an impressive two-way game, showcasing his offensive potential while playing shut-down, top-pair minutes against the league's most elite competition. But with all that, he showed a silky smoothness with how he skates with and without the puck and the aptitude to small plays that may go unnoticed.

It really wasn't even close as Provorov snatched the spotlight on the Flyers' blue line last year.

But with such an impressive campaign comes increased expectations in Year 2. Ask Gostisbehere about how that goes and the pressure that can come with increased expectations.

Gostisbehere did indeed suffer the dreaded sophomore slump, which even included numerous benchings. But "Ghost" also had a hip injury that hindered him, especially early on in the year.

Unless something unforeseen takes place, Provorov is coming in healthy. So there's the first main hurdle out of the way.

But with the way he excelled last season, what reason do we have to believe Provorov won't at least match what he did last season with six goals, 24 assists and a team-high 21:58 of ice time over all 82 games last season?

The scary thing is Provorov likely hasn't come close to his ceiling yet, either.

Is a sophomore slump possible? Sure it is.

But knowing all we know about Provorov and how he played last season, the pressure will certainly increase.

But also knowing that he's already the Flyers' best defenseman, I anticipate him to be even better than last season as his game continues to mature in all facets.

The guy will turn only 21 in January. Think about that.

Best of NHL: Johnny Gaudreau extends point streak to 10 games

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Best of NHL: Johnny Gaudreau extends point streak to 10 games

WASHINGTON -- Johnny Gaudreau had a goal and an assist to extend his career-best point streak to 10 games and the Calgary Flames beat the Washington Capitals 4-1 on Monday night.

Gaudreau scored and assisted on Sean Monahan's goal, one of two on the power play for Calgary, which has won four of its past five. Mikael Backlund and captain Mark Giordano also scored for the Flames, who got 29 saves from Mike Smith.

Gaudreau, nicknamed "Johnny Hockey," has eight goals and 11 assists during his point streak. Led by the Carneys Point, New Jersey, native, the Flames are 7-3-0 in that time.

Lars Eller scored the only goal for the Capitals, who took five minor penalties and lost for the third time in four games. Braden Holtby allowed four goals on 39 shots.

The Flames came in feeling good after a comeback victory in Philadelphia and a 1950s-themed train ride to Washington. But the Capitals took a 1-0 lead just 62 seconds in when Jakub Vrana found Eller for his fourth goal of the season.

Calgary controlled much of the play from that point on, tying it on Gaudreau's goal 4:49 in and taking a lead on Monahan's power-play goal 5:22 into the second. Monahan had a goal and an assist after a power-play hat trick Saturday against the Flyers.

Washington's parade to the penalty box gave the Flames momentum and then their third goal at 4:38 of the second when Backlund buried a loose puck. Giordano's goal to make it 4-1 was effectively a third power-play goal as it came 1 second after ex-Flames forward Alex Chiasson's penalty expired (see full recap).

Blue Jackets edge Sabres for 4th straight win
BUFFALO, N.Y. -- Sergei Bobrovsky made three of his 30 saves on a power play in the final two minutes, and the Columbus Blue Jackets beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2 on Monday night for their fourth straight victory.

Rookie Pierre-Luc Dubois, Artemi Panarin and Boone Jenner scored for the Blue Jackets. Markus Nutivaara had two assists.

Buffalo dropped its sixth straight game. Evander Kane and Sam Reinhart scored for the Sabres, and Robin Lehner stopped 25 shots.

Bobrovsky made his biggest save when he slid across the crease to kick away a Ryan O'Reilly one-timer with 1:49 remaining. Bobrovsky got a piece of Kyle Okposo's shot off the rebound and the puck trickled across the goal line while Okposo fell into the net. Officials determined on replay that the goal did not count.

The Blue Jackets scored first for the fifth straight game when Dubois collected a loose puck in the slot and lifted a wrist shot over Lehner four minutes into the second period. Oliver Bjorkstrand set up Dubois' third goal of the season with a pass from behind the net.

Panarin scored his fifth on a high wrist shot from the right circle 5:47 into the third. Jenner added his third goal of the year on a play in front of the net midway through the period (see full recap).

Raanta, Coyotes end Maple Leafs' win streak
TORONTO -- Antti Raanta made 26 saves and the Arizona Coyotes ended the Toronto Maple Leafs' winning streak at six games with a 4-1 victory Monday night.

Brendan Perlini, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Max Domi and Tobias Rieder scored for the Coyotes (5-15-3), who have won three in a row for the first time this season.

Arizona rookie Clayton Keller had two assists to give him 20 points in 23 games.

James van Riemsdyk scored for the Maple Leafs (14-8-0).

Frederik Andersen had his shutout streak snapped at 1:41:28 when the Coyotes scored in the first period. Andersen, who made 28 saves, had blanked the opponent in back-to-back games.

Toronto star Auston Matthews, playing in his 100th career game, appeared to tie it 2-all with 3:50 to play but the goal was overturned after a replay review because of goalie interference by Zach Hyman (see full recap).

Wayne Simmonds issues timely reminder about Flyers

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Wayne Simmonds issues timely reminder about Flyers

VOORHEES, N.J. — Wayne Simmonds would make a pretty good salesman.

He speaks with conviction and knows how to convey a point.

On Monday, he was selling the 2017-18 Flyers.

None of it was fluff. In fact, the sales pitch was completely valid.

Many clamored for the Flyers to become younger, and they did. Nolan Patrick, 19, is just getting healthy again after missing nine straight games. The fourth line features two 23-year-olds (Scott Laughton, Taylor Leier) that developed last season in the AHL. And half of the current defense is made up of rookies.

That's not to mention Travis Konecny and Ivan Provorov are only 20 years old, while Jordan Weal is in his first full NHL season.

After losing four straight games, the Flyers are 8-8-4 and still only five points out of first place despite sitting in last in the Metropolitan Division.

Things could be worse. Really, they're not all that bad.

"The season's not even close to being over," Simmonds said after practice at Flyers Skate Zone. "That's the way I'm thinking about it, guys. There's no need to be worried, we're a .500 hockey team right now, we've played 20 games, we have 62 games left, we've got a really young team and we're growing every single day. Yeah, we're going to have our struggles, but we're also going to have points in the season where we make huge strides. We've got to stick with it and we've got to keep going and going."

The Flyers were 9-8-3 after 20 games last season. Two games later, they were starting a 10-game winning streak. The run didn't accomplish much by season's end, but it's an example of how quickly trends can turn in the NHL.

Simmonds is experiencing his own negative trend of 12 straight games without a goal after scoring six in eight games to start the season.

"Sometimes you score 10 goals, then you don't score again for 20 games or something like that," Simmonds said. "Like I said, it's a long year, you keep going, you keep grinding, you guys want to jump to conclusions, that's your job. You guys have got to make decisions on a game-to-game basis, but for us, we just have to make sure we're coming to the rink and doing our job every single day and continuing to try and get better."

Throughout much of his drought, Simmonds has not looked himself, likely banged up from the style in which he plays and excels.

With time and patience, Simmonds is building himself up again physically.

"You think you can do some things and sometimes your body just tells you no," Simmonds said.

"I've been feeling better the last little bit. I feel like I've started to play better, things aren't coming offensively for me. I think as an individual, I've just got to keep working hard. The only way to break yourself out of a bad streak is to continue to work hard and hopefully things eventually go your way."

When does he know his game is coming to him?

"When I'm aggressive," Simmonds said. "When I'm battling in the corners, I'm hitting — I think earlier this year, I wasn't fully engaging in battles and stuff like that, and that's not me, that's not my game. I think the last little bit here, I've felt a lot better, I've been doing a lot more battling, a lot more hitting, a lot more physical things. It's nice and we've got to continue that. As a team, we've got to continue to do the same thing, to get to the front of the net and continue to put pucks in."

Aside from the first line of Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek, scoring struggles have permeated the middle six and secondary options. Konecny and Weal, two players the Flyers expected jumps from in production, have combined for four goals and nine assists. Konecny is without a goal over his previous 10 games, while Weal has scored one in his last 12.

"It's been a lot of hard work and not much to show for it," Weal said. "No matter what line we've been on, it seems like we've been getting three or four chances every game to put something in and nothing right now seems to be going in. It's one of those things that happens during a season.

"When it breaks open, hopefully it'll break wide open.

"When we have all four lines scoring, we're a really dangerous team."

Both Konecny and Weal are frequently the last two players off the practice ice.

Monday was no different.

"I just need to make sure I'm battling and creating more offense," Konecny said. "I feel like the opportunities are there, I'm not worried about that."

Nor is Simmonds worried about the Flyers with 62 games to go, the next coming Tuesday night at home against the Canucks.

Similar to building up strength and good health, patience is important to a season, especially with the makeup of this Flyers team.

Simmonds believes you'll buy in … just give it some time.

"You can look at the standings, you can do whatever you want, but we've played 20 games," Simmonds said. "There's still a long time to go in the season. We've got work to do.

"I'm definitely feeling better. It's up to me to get going."

When he does, the Flyers hope the rest follow.