Phillies (52-63) at Dodgers (64-49)
3:10 p.m. on CSN
Whether the Dodgers' power or the missed spots from Phillies starters has been the biggest factor in L.A.'s gaudy offensive production this week, the Phils haven't been competitive at Chavez Ravine.
This afternoon, they can salvage the series. A win would give the Phillies a 3-3 West Coast road trip.
Let's take a look at the finale:
1. No contest
The Phillies have been outscored 18-7 in the first two games of the series. The Dodgers have 15 extra-base hits in those two games — eight doubles and seven home runs. The Phillies have five extra-base hits — a double, a triple and three homers.
The Dodgers are hitting up and down the lineup. Chase Utley, leading off, homered Monday and had a multi-hit game Tuesday. Corey Seager hit two homers Monday and two singles Tuesday. Yasmani Grandal has homered in both games. Justin Turner is 3 for 9 with a homer and a double. Joc Pederson's reached base in five of eight plate appearances and driven in four runs.
The Phillies are catching the Dodgers at the wrong time. It seemed like L.A. might fade when ace/MVP Clayton Kershaw went on the DL after his June 26 start, but with him out they've gone 23-13. And by winning the first two games of this series against the Phillies, the Dodgers have caught the Giants, who they trailed in the NL West by 6½ games at the All-Star break.
MLB
2. Can Hellickson stop the bleeding?
Zach Eflin couldn't miss any bats on Monday and he and the Phillies paid the price, allowing five runs in the first and seven through three.
Vince Velasquez was sharp in the first inning Tuesday but fell apart in the second, and according to manager Pete Mackanin did not change speeds enough against an experienced, powerful and locked-in Dodgers lineup.
In the first two games of the series, Eflin and Velasquez allowed a combined 16 earned runs on 18 hits and six homers in 7⅔ innings.
Hellickson is better equipped to perhaps hold this hot L.A. offense in check. He has by far the most experience of the Phillies' starting pitchers, which is important when facing a Dodgers lineup with veterans Utley, Adrian Gonzalez, Turner and Howie Kendrick. And Hellickson, though he doesn't throw as hard as Velasquez, actually leads the Phillies with an 11.1 percent swinging strike rate.
Active Dodgers are just 17 for 73 (.233) lifetime off Hellickson with five home runs. Gonzalez has two of them, but is 4 for 24. Grandal has had the most success, going 3 for 4 with a double and a homer. But with a day game after a night game, Hellickson might avoid Grandal, who's started three in a row.
The Phillies have won seven of Hellickson's last eight starts. He's 9-7 with a 3.72 ERA on the season, and is projected to finish just shy of 200 innings.
3. New CF arrangement?
Aaron Altherr began Tuesday's game in right field before moving to center in the seventh inning. Expect to see more of Altherr in center field as the season goes on. Mackanin told reporters in L.A. that he likes Altherr there.
"He glides to the ball. It's fun watching him play," Mackanin said. "[There’s] a good chance he'll be the centerfielder and we'll move Odubel (to a corner outfield spot), but we're not doing anything right now. The thought crossed my mind to make that switch this year — maybe in September, just to get Odubel familiarized with a corner.”
Altherr looks more fluid and comfortable in center than Herrera does and it did not take long this season for that to show. Teammate Jim Salisbury laid out the possibility and reasons the Phillies might shop Herrera this winter.
The gist of it is: The Phillies suddenly have a lot of talented young outfielders in Altherr, Roman Quinn, Nick Williams and Dylan Cozens. Someone is going to be the odd man out if three players from that group pan out and stay healthy (big ifs, obviously). It could be Herrera, who has taken a step back defensively this season and who has lost focus at times.
Herrera just hasn't been the same player the last two months. He's hit .258 with a .302 on-base percentage over his last 60 games. He's walked in just 5.3 percent of his plate appearances over that span after walking 16.3 percent of the time previously.
4. Taking on Kazmir
The Phillies this afternoon face 32-year-old lefty Scott Kazmir, who is 9-5 with a 4.51 ERA in his first season with the Dodgers.
Kazmir can be close to unhittable at times. He can completely lose his control at others. In his last 10 starts, he's had four games with three or more walks and four games with no walks. You never know which Kazmir is going to show up.
Kazmir still strikes out his share of batters — 126 in 121⅔ innings this season — but has been susceptible this season to right-handed hitters. Righties have hit .260 against him with 22 doubles, 16 home runs and an .801 OPS, compared to a .200 batting average, three doubles, four homers and a .601 OPS from lefties.
With Kazmir on the mound, this could be a day off for Herrera and switch-hitter Freddy Galvis, who has been much worse hitting from the right side.
Kazmir, who pitched Games 1 and 5 against the Phillies in the 2008 World Series, still throws as hard as he did back then (92 mph average fastball), but has added a few wrinkles. He now also throws a cutter and curveball in addition to his four-seam fastball, sinker, slider and changeup. He has a lot of weapons. The four-seamer and cutter have been hit the hardest this season.
5. This and that
• In the span of two games, the Phillies' rotation's ERA has risen from 4.36 to 4.53. Hard to do this late in the season.
• The Phillies were 0 for 8 last night with runners in scoring position. They've hit .227 in those situations this season, third-worst in the majors, ahead of only the Yankees (.225) and Mets (.204).
• Altherr's home run last night was his third of the season (in 12 games) and eighth of his big-league career. Altherr has a .471 slugging percentage and .802 OPS in 222 career plate appearances. Of his 45 hits, 25 have gone for extra bases.