Phillies-Mets 5 things: A chance to end the Mets' playoff hopes

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Phillies (69-83) at Mets (80-72)
7:10 p.m. on CSN

Fresh off a two-game home sweep of the Chicago White Sox, the Phillies begin their final road trip of the season tonight at Citi Field. Let's take a look at the matchup:

1. Spoiler alert
The Phillies have a real chance to be the team that ends the Mets' playoff hopes. The Phils and Mets have four games Thursday through Sunday at Citi Field and then play each other at Citizens Bank Park in the final series of the year. That's seven of the final 10 games against each other.

The Mets had a great chance this week to position themselves for October but they were surprisingly swept at home against the NL-worst Braves. Luckily for Terry Collins' club, the Cardinals and Giants have been mediocre lately as well. The Cardinals, Mets and Giants enter Thursday night in a three-way tie in the wild-card standings at 80-72. One of the three won't make it.

The Phillies are 5-7 this season vs. the Mets after going 5-14 against them last season.

2. Better late than never
June was the Phillies' best month from a power and run-scoring standpoint, but they haven't been far behind in September, averaging 4.0 runs per game and walking more than they have at any point in 2016.

Through Aug. 31, the Phillies had a walk rate of 6.8 percent. In September, they've walked in 8.2 percent of their plate appearances. As a result, the Phils have a team on-base percentage this month of .319 despite hitting just .243. The only other month this season they had an OBP above .300 was July (.306).

The Phillies have preached plate selection at every level all year. Their players have listened and seem committed to adjusting their approaches, even though the progress has been slow. Maikel Franco and Tommy Joseph have discussed it in recent days and weeks, and it seems the continuous messages the Phils sent Odubel Herrera in the second half have resonated.

Joseph has hit .340 this month with four homers, 11 RBIs and a .407 OBP. Herrera has hit .333 with a .397 OBP. Cesar Hernandez has hit .311 with a .420 OBP. And Roman Quinn, batting second, has a .404 on-base percentage this month.

With Hernandez, Quinn and Herrera, the Phillies have three fast players capable of setting the table. That's a nice foundation to build upon heading into next season, assuming the three players are on the 25-man roster next April.

3. More length from Morgan
Adam Morgan allowed just one earned run in his last start but lasted only 4⅓ innings against the Marlins. He started the game with four shutout innings but was lifted with a run in and men on second and third with one out in the fifth. That game ended up going 13 innings, but the Phillies' bullpen allowed just one run over 8⅔ innings.

Morgan (2-10, 5.57 ERA) will look to go deeper into tonight's start. He had pitched six-plus innings in each of his three previous outings, all quality starts. Morgan has a 3.65 ERA in seven starts with the Phillies since learning a two-seam fastball and returning from the minors.

Morgan's only bad start since his recall was Aug. 26 against the Mets at Citi Field. He allowed six runs on three homers over five innings, though he did match a career-high with eight strikeouts. He simply missed too much in the middle of the plate, allowing homers to Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera and Wilmer Flores and doubles to Reyes and pitcher Bartolo Colon.

The Mets gave Morgan trouble last year, scoring five runs off him in 3⅔ innings. All told, he's allowed seven home runs to them in just 8⅔ frames. Containing a lineup that has crushed the ball off him would be a big confidence boost for Morgan, who has rebounded in the second half after pitching as poorly as anyone in the National League prior to the All-Star break.

4. Scouting Lugo
The Phillies face Mets rookie right-hander Seth Lugo for the first time tonight. The 26-year-old is 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA in 15 appearances, the last six of which were starts.

Lugo, a 34th-round pick in 2011, has taken advantage of this opportunity, pitching well in all six starts. He's 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA in 36⅔ innings in the rotation. With Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Jon Niese all on the DL, Lugo's presence has been a godsend for the Mets.

Despite pitching with a blister, Lugo has kept hitters off balance by changing speeds and freezing them with his curveball, which has uncommon spin. Lugo's curve sits in the mid-70s and his fastball gets all the way up to the mid-90s (he's touched 97), so the batter has a lot to think about. Lugo also throws a a sinker, changeup and slider.

Lugo was never a big prospect, and he had a 6.50 ERA in 73⅓ innings earlier this year at Triple A, so this late-season success has been surprising.

5. This and that
• Cabrera has been the Mets' best hitter against the Phillies this season, batting .400 in 45 at-bats with four doubles, four homers and eight RBIs. Yoenis Cespedes also has four homers. Curtis Granderson hasn't done anything, going 6 for 42 (.143) with 11 strikeouts.

• Mets closer Jeurys Familia, who has 49 saves on the year, has converted his last 10 save opportunities vs. the Phillies. He hasn't blown one against them since May 31, 2014, when he wasn't even the closer. 

• Herrera is 15 for 29 (.517) over his last eight games with six extra-base hits, six RBIs, 10 runs and four steals. His OPS has risen from .756 to .789. At .288, his batting average is the highest it's been since July 27.

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