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Need to Know: Setting the early odds on the Redskins' first-round pick

Here is what you need to know on this Tuesday, March 6, nine days before NFL free agency starts.  

Playing the odds on the Redskins’ top draft pick

The draft is still over seven weeks away but after the combine things are beginning to take shape. Let’s get out the $100 in imaginary poker chips and spread them out according to the current chances of what position the Redskins will take with their first-round pick. We are going to assume that they do not trade out of the 13th overall pick.

Interior D-line, $30 One thing to keep in mind is that we’re going into this blind regarding free agency. We don’t know if the Redskins will sign Dontari Poe or Bennie Logan. But when Super Bowl odds are laid down before the season starts, we don’t know who is going to get injured and how strong the schedule will turn out to be but you make your picks anyway. So we’ll just factor in the chance that nose tackle will be handled by the time the draft rolls around. I don’t think they will want to spend the money and will wait for the draft.

Inside linebacker, $30 Looking at history, I’m going out on quite a limb here. The Redskins have not drafted a middle or inside linebacker in the first round since the merger. But rarely is there a chance that two spectacular prospects the likes Roquan Smith and Tremaine Edmunds will both be available when the Redskins are on the clock. Even if they re-sign Zach Brown the talent could be too good to bypass.

Wide receiver, $15 The question here could be if Calvin Ridley slides back and is available at No. 13 and if players like Smith, Edmunds, and Vita Vea are off the board. Even if they sign a receiver in free agency they will need depth and to prepare for the possible departure of Jamison Crowder as a free agent.

Running back, $10 Doug Williams’ admission that the running back corps needs a talent infusion has me convinced that they will take a running back somewhere along the line. But his talk of the depth of quality players at the position also has me convinced that they will go elsewhere in the first round and circle back to take a running back later on.

Guard, $5 The Redskins will want to find a candidate to be their starting left guard in the draft but they will only fill that need in the first if Quenton Nelson of Notre Dame falls back to No. 13. Remember, nobody thought there was a chance Jonathan Allen would still be on the board at 17 a year ago.

The field, $10 This covers the chances that a player like Nelson but at another position falls into the Redskins’ laps. They have enough needs across the board that they can’t turn down a talent that is head and shoulders above the rest of the players on their draft board. That group could include DB’s Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James. Could it include a quarterback? I doubt it, I think that since they likely are tied to Alex Smith for three years they would try to make a trade if, say, Baker Mayfield is available.

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page and follow him on Twitter @TandlerNBCS.


Days until:

—Offseason workouts begin (4/16) 41
—NFL Draft (4/26) 51
—2018 NFL season starts (9/9) 187

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