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There was literally a 0.4% chance of a Redskins loss vs. the Saints — and then the Redskins lost

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There was literally a 0.4% chance of a Redskins loss vs. the Saints — and then the Redskins lost

Despite losing their best player to a terrible knee injury, and despite playing on the road vs. a team on a seven-game winning streak, and despite making crucial mistakes including a major blunder at the end of the first half, at one point, the Redskins had more than a 99 percent chance of beating the Saints Sunday.

And, well, you know what happened.

After a holding penalty on the Saints' fourth quarter drive that followed a Kirk Cousins to Jeremy Sprinkle touchdown pass, Washington's odds of winning the matchup were set at 99.6 percent.

In case simply reading that number isn't painful enough, here's a graph that'll make it painful-er:

MORE: LATEST 2018 NFL MOCK DRAFT

Following the flag, all the Saints would do is go on to score on that drive, score on their next drive, convert on the two-point conversion, hold the Redskins twice and then kick the game-winning field goal in overtime, a sequence of events that, according to ESPN, had a less than 1/100 chance of happening.

Since we're talking about numbers, here's another one for you: As of this post, the Redskins have 99 hours until they have to turn around and play the Giants on Thanksgiving. So that's nice.

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2018 NFL Draft order has Redskins pick nearing top ten as losses stockpile

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2018 NFL Draft order has Redskins pick nearing top ten as losses stockpile

LOS ANGELES — Some years, the December talk is of playoff tiebreakers.

Other years, it’s about draft position.

This is one of those “other” years.

The Redskins’ current skid of four losses in their last five games has knocked them out of playoff contention but into more favorable position in the 2018 NFL Draft, which is scheduled to take place in late April.

The Redskins' record is 5-8 through Week 14,  and if the season ended today, Washington would be picking either 11th or 12th in the first round.

Here’s the big picture: As of today, there are eight teams that have fewer wins than Washington. All of them would be picking ahead of the Redskins. 

The Bengals and Jets also have eight losses so the one and only draft order tiebreaker would be applied.

RELATED: NEW 2018 NFL MOCK DRAFT 3.0

This does not work out well for the Redskins.

The NFL Draft tiebreaker is strength of schedule with the teams with the weaker schedules getting the better picks. I am sure you have heard about how tough a schedule the Redskins have all year long. It was a point of pride for many fans. But now it comes back to bite them.

The Jets (opponents winning percentage .488) and the Bengals (.444) have faced weaker schedules than the Redskins (.574). That pushes Washington back to 11th.

RELATED: FEW UPS, MANY DOWNS VS. CHARGERS

But there is a Week 14 game pending. The Dolphins, who have seven losses, play the Patriots on Monday Night Football. If they lose and join the eight-loss group, they would jump ahead of the Redskins based on the SOS tiebreaker, pushing Washington back to 12th.

Of course, the season doesn’t end today and a lot can happen.

But if the bottom doesn’t completely fall out it seems likely that they will end up somewhere between 10th and 12th in the first round.

We will be looking at what that might mean for the Redskins in the coming days and weeks as the offseason comes early for the Redskins one more time.

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Need to Know: Five key moments from Redskins vs. Chargers

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Need to Know: Five key moments from Redskins vs. Chargers

CARSON, CA—Here is what you need to know on this Monday, December 11, six days before the Washington Redskins play the Cardinals at FedEx Field.

Timeline

Today’s schedule: Jay Gruden conference call 3 p.m.

Days until:

—Broncos @ Redskins Christmas Eve (12/24) 13
—Redskins @ Giants (12/17) 20
—NFL Draft (4/26/18) 136

Five key plays from Redskins vs. Chargers

Here are the five key plays in the Redskins’ loss to the Chargers:

Philip Rivers 20-yard pass to Hunter Henry on third and nine—It was a 3-0 game and the Chargers were backed up at their own nine. But the tight end Henry got separation from safety Deshazor Everett and Rivers’ pass was on the money. Instead of having to punt from deep in their own territory the Chargers were in business. They didn’t face another third down while completing the 10-play drive for a touchdown.

Kirk Cousins pass intercepted by Kyle Emanuel—It was 10-0 after that TD drive and Cousins wanted to get it back in a hurry. He tried to hit Vernon Davis on a deep out pattern but Cousins said that it was a play that was just installed and he wasn’t really comfortable with it. In any case, the ball was long and after a defensive back tipped it, Emanuel picked it off and returned it to the Washington 29. The Chargers scored a field goal to make it 13-0.

Cousins TD pass to Davis—This gave the Redskins momentum in the game for 11 seconds. The drive itself was impressive, highlighted by a fourth and two completion to Niles Paul. On third and 11 at the 23, Cousins bought time by rolling to his right and he found Davis just in the end zone to make the score 13-6.

Rivers TD bomb to Tyrell Williams—The lift the Redskins got from the score was very short-lived. On the first play after the kickoff, Rivers launched a bomb to Williams, who had beaten Josh Norman (although it’s entirely possible that Norman thought he had some deep and/or inside help). Williams hauled in the pass and easily scored to snatch the momentum back from the Redskins.

Cousins’ fourth-down pass for Davis incomplete—Attempting to respond to the Chargers’ quick-strike TD, the Redskins drove into Chargers territory. They faced fourth and four at the LA 37. The call was to go for it and after seeing that a couple of safer options were covered, Cousins arched one to Davis about 20 yards downfield. Davis had a step on his defender but the pass was a shade too long and it was incomplete. The Chargers drove to a field goal to make it 23-6. The competitive phase of the game essentially was over.

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page Facebook.com/TandlerNBCS and follow him on Twitter @TandlerNBCS.

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