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Taking a look at the Nationals pitchers' best pitches

Taking a look at the Nationals pitchers' best pitches

By Cam Ellis

It's no secret that the Nationals can pitch a little. Besides having MLB's lowest ERA, the Nats boast a top-10 mark in batting average against, strikeouts, and quality starts. They're probably in the upper echelon of a variety of additional pitching stats, but you get the point. A bigger question mark than usual heading into the season, the Nats have ridden bounce back performances from Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez, relied on the steady all-star talent of Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer, and gotten a surprising lift from Joe Ross on the way to a franchise-best start. 

What's made their pitchers so tough thus far? What pitches work for them and which ones should they stay away from? Using a handful of different statistics, this article looks to explain what pitch is each starters strongest and most effective. One of the best ways to get a singular representation of a pitches value is using FanGraphs' Pitch Type Linear Weight value, which is explained in full here. Like any lone baseball stat, it doesn't tell the whole story; what it does is help give an understandable value to each pitch and help shed light on how valuable it is to the pitcher. Which pitch is most valuable to which pitcher? Let's take a look. 

Max Scherzer

Best Pitch: Slider

Scherzer's case is tricky because the question of sample size comes into play. As you'll see above, the numbers suggest his cutter is his most effective pitch - a cutter he's only thrown three times all year. His slider generates the most swings out of the strike zone (O-Swing%), the most amount of swinging striks (SwStr%), and the least amount of contact (Contact%) in general. 

The chart above shows the batting average against each of his pitches. Considering his three most common pitches thrown are his fastball, slider, and change up, and his slider's BAA is the lowest of any three of those, it stands to reason that that's his best pitch. 

Once again, we're leaving Scherzer's cutter out of any debate because he's only thrown three all year. With that in mind, his slider takes over as the most swung at pitch, evident by it's 19.35 wiff percentage. Scherzer leans heavily on his four-seamer, but when he needs a go-to out, the numbers say he goes to his slider. 

Stephen Strasburg

Best pitch: Change up

This one's no secret. Strasburg's change up has always been lethal, and the numbers show it plenty of love. A 3.1 pVAL is his best by far, and the Swing and Contact numbers back up the claim. What's especially important here is that there's a fair sample size for all, minus the two-seam. Through four starts, Strasburg has evenly distributed his breaking balls, but the change up has been his bread and butter. 

As if you needed any more convincing: a 0.00 batting average against his change up. 

Brooks Baseball lists Strasburg's two-seamer as a sinker because of the similar movement on each pitch. No matter - the change up still takes the cake with a 22.92 wiff percentage. 

Gio Gonzalez

Best pitch: Changeup, barely 

This is the closest one yet. Interestingly enough, Gonzalez's change has much better Swing percentage numbers, while his curve has better Contact percentages. pVAL gives the slight edge to the change up, that's probably has something to do with the fact that he's thrown more change ups than curves. 

Still, it's neck and neck. The change garners a .071 batting average against while the curve generates a .091 baa. It's splitting hairs, but hey, that's what analytics is all about! 

These two graphs echo what the FanGraphs board said: it's really six one, half-dozen the other with Gonzalez. It's not groundbreaking, but interesting to see nonetheless. A case could easily be made for Gio's curve, but for now we'll say that his go-to pitch his the changeup. 

Tanner Roark

Best pitch: Changeup, by a mile

It's pretty terrifying when your number four starter is capable of a 15-strikeout game like Roark's last outing. His numbers across the board are pretty pedestrian - except for his changeup. Both his pVAL and his pVAL/C (the latter adjusted to a value per 100 pitches) on the change dwarf any of his other pitches, and the Swing and Contact numbers do the same. Even for a contact pitcher, 18.8 SwStr% is pretty good. 

The only batting average against that's lower than his change is his four seam, which he barely throws (only 15 on the year so far). Also, not to be a wet blanket, but on the opposite side of the spectrum, the numbers show that maybe Roark should stay far away from his curveball. 

This one is as obvious as they get. It's the change. Moving on. 

Joe Ross

Best pitch: Slider

This may come as a surprise to some fans, but to those who watch Ross a lot, it's anything but. Sure, he's a sinker ball pitcher and a pretty good one at that. But his most effective pitch - the one he uses to get outs - is his slider. Granted, sinker balls are meant to be hit into the dirt while sliders are intended to miss bats, but still. The sliders' Swing and Contact percentages alone suggest an incredibly effective pitch, let alone when you compare it to his sinker or his change.

A .200 batting average against is impressive, while the .273 against the sinker is just okay, especially as his primary pitch. The .429 against the change is a victim of sample size, so exhale Nats fans.

Like previously stated, it doesn't make a lot of sense to compare a sinker and a slider when it comes to swings and misses. The slider alone, though, at 20.35% is a very good pitch. 

So there you have it, Nats fans. Your rotation thrives on the changeup mainly, with a little bit of slider on the side. 

RELATED: State of the Nats: Wins piling up, but tough stretch awaits

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With Ross placed on 60-day DL, Nationals agree to 1-year deal with veteran reliever

With Ross placed on 60-day DL, Nationals agree to 1-year deal with veteran reliever

WASHINGTON  -- The Washington Nationals say they have agreed to a one-year deal with 40-year-old reliever Joaquin Benoit.

The team announced the move Wednesday, along with placing pitcher Joe Ross on the 60-day disabled list as he recovers from Tommy John surgery in July.

The Nationals didn't release terms of the agreement, though a person with knowledge of the deal told The Associated Press on Monday that it was for $1 million.

The person spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the deal wasn't official at the time.

MORE NATIONALS: FULL 2018 SPRING TRAINING SCHEDULE

Benoit is a right-hander who first reached the big leagues in 2001. 

He has played for eight teams, finishing last year with Pittsburgh.

He has 764 career appearances, going 58-49 with a 3.83 ERA and 53 saves.

RELATED: 2018 MLB BETTING ODDS

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It's Day 1 of spring training and Bryce Harper is already done taking questions regarding his future

It's Day 1 of spring training and Bryce Harper is already done taking questions regarding his future

So if you have not heard, Bryce Harper is going to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2018 season.

All off-season talking heads, baseball aficionados, radio hosts, etc. were speculating on where the outfielder’s destination will be next year.

And we are still a year away from it actually happening.

RELATED: VEGAS SETS OVER/UNDERS FOR 2018 MLB SEASON

Reporting to spring training on Monday, Harper did not waste any time telling the media how his press conferences were going to play out this season.

“If guys do [ask], or talk anything about that, I will be walking right out the door.”

Entering his seventh season with the Washington Nationals, the 25-year-old is coming off the second-best season, statistically, of his career. The 2015 NL MVP has hit .285 in his career, with 150 home runs and 421 RBIs. Unquestionably he is the face of the Nationals’ organization, if not, the best player in the team’s history.

If he does end the season without a contract extension, he will join Rafael Palmeiro, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, and Barry Bonds as the top sought out free agents in MLB history.

One thing is for certain in terms of Harper’s free agency; Harper has given no inclination on where his landing spot will be.  The top three cities are of course his favorite childhood team, the New York Yankees; joining with one of his closest friends with the Chicago Cubs; or just staying with Washington.

Wherever he does land, it does appear that it will be the largest contract given to a free agent ever.

As for now we just wait and direct any of your calls to his agent Scott Boras.

READ ALSO: NATIONALS FULL SPRING TRAINING SCHEDULE