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Will the Redskins have an advantage at quarterback going into their wild card playoff game against the Packers on Sunday?

Two months ago, even a few weeks ago, it would have preposterous to suggest that Kirk Cousins could be considered the better player at quarterback in a postseason game than Aaron Rodgers. The Packers quarterback has a Super Bowl ring and is a two-time MVP. Kirk Cousins was expected to spend this season on the bench and after six games he had six touchdown passes and eight interceptions and it looked like he was running out of rope.

But as we sit here today, neither quarterback has followed expectations. Rodgers is having one of his worst statistical years. He is down from his career averages in nearly every major statistical category including completion percentage (60.7 in 2015, 65.1 career), net yards per pass attempt (5.7 in 2015, 7.0 career) and passer rating (92.7 in 2015, 104.1 career).

Cousins, meanwhile, posted some solid numbers, including the best completion percentage in the NFL (69.8) and top 10 performances in passer rating (101.6, fifth) and net yards per attempt (7.0, sixth).

Here are their numbers for the season:

Clearly, Cousins had a better season. But the difference between the two becomes even more pronounced in the “what have to done lately” department. After six games the Redskins were 2-4 and Cousins was struggling as noted above. The Packers were rolling at 6-0. Rodgers was completing 68.1 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions with a rating of 115.9.

But since then, Cousins has been better, much better. Here are the stats for the two QB’s from games seven through 16:

It’s clearly and advantage to Cousins when we’re talking about the body of work in 2015 and the more recent games this year. But Rodgers does have an edge when it comes to postseason experience. He has started 11 playoff games and the Packers have won six of them. Cousins’ only postseason experience came in mop up duty after Robert Griffin III was injured against the Seahawks in 2012.

How much of an advantage is it for your quarterback to have more playoff experience than your opponent’s? Last year the team with the more playoff-experienced quarterback went 7-3 in the playoffs (in one game the two QB’s had played an equal number of playoff games going in). But in 2013 the more experienced quarterback was on the losing side in six of the 11 games.

What all of this boils down to is that it’s one game. If you did 50,000 computer simulations of the game, Cousins would probably come out having a better day than Rodgers most of the time. But they will play it once and you certainly can't rule out Rodgers catching fire for a game and pushing the Packers past the Redskins.

2018 NFL Draft

Final Redskins seven-round mock draft

Doug Williams talked about the draft, but actually explained free agency

Redskins will listen to draft trade offers but a trade up is unlikely

Terrell Edmunds should be a mid-round Redskins safety target

NFL Draft: Where and how to watch

Here is what you need to know on this Wednesday, April 25, one day before the first round of the 2018 NFL draft.  

Final seven-round Redskins mock draft

Here we go. No trades. If you like big guys you’ll like the first four picks. 

Round 1, DL Da’Ron Payne, Alabama—I think that Vita Vea will be off the board; it’s looking more and more like he will go the Raiders at 10 or Miami at 11. Payne might be the better player anyway, assuming that Jim Tomsula can coach some pass rush out of him. If Minkah Fitzpatrick or Derwin James is on the board the Redskins may have to adjust their thinking. 

Round 2, OL Billy Price, Ohio State—I had a running back in mind here but the run at the position came earlier than expected. Derrius Guice, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel, and Nick Chubb were all off the board. The decision was to get a guy to insert at left guard and complete a home-grown O-line that can hopefully create running room for whatever back takes the handoff. 

Round 4, RB Kalen Ballage, Arizona State—I’m going with the best available running back here. The analytics types really like his combination of size (6-1, 228) and speed (4.46 in the 40 at the combine). Also, he shared carries with the Sun Devils so is a relatively low-mileage back (450 carries in four years). Ballage scored eight touchdowns in a game as a junior so he could be what the team needs in the red zone. 

Round 5, DL R.J. McIntosh, Miami—The Redskins have spent so little draft capital on the defensive line over the past two decades that it’s easy to justify doubling up there in one draft. McIntosh is a project, but he has high-level athleticism and quickness and those are traits you can’t teach. It might take him all of this year and next offseason in the weight room to build up his core strength and to add some weight onto his 286-lb. frame. 

Round 5, CB Nick Nelson, Wisconsin—While working out for the Lions last week, Nelson suffered a torn meniscus. That dropped his draft stock from perhaps being a Day 2 pick to one who should still be on the board on Saturday afternoon. The rehab for the 2017 All-Big Ten selection has been estimated at three to four months, meaning that he could be ready for the start of training camp. One more note: he was the Badgers’ punt returner last year and he averaged 8.6 yards per return with one touchdown. 

Round 6, TE David Wells, San Diego St.—While Jay Gruden and Doug Williams both seem to be confident that Jordan Reed will be healthy and ready to go by the time the regular season starts the truth will emerge in the draft. If they take a tight end early, they are very concerned about Reed. If they wait until this point in the draft and take a project like Wells, they are only moderately worried. 

Round 7, WR Auden Tate, Florida State—He’s coming off of a separated shoulder and that might push the 6-4 Tate down the board. Tate would be a project; he only caught 65 passes in 22 game at Florida State. He doesn’t have blazing speed (4.68 in the 40) but he competes for the ball and he could be a good red zone asset. 

Round 7, CB Greg Stroman, Virginia Tech—You can’t have too many corners or edge rushers and since there aren’t enough of the latter to go around in this draft I took a corner here. Stroman doesn’t have ideal size at 5-11, 182 but he paid attention during his four years with the Hokies and he plays with good technique. 

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page, Facebook.com/TandlerNBCSand follow him on Twitter  @TandlerNBCS.

Tandler on Twitter

In response to a suggestion that former kick returner Devin Hester should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer:

If @BMitchliveNBCS hasn’t even gotten to the point where his case has been presented in the selection meeting, no, Hester should not be a first-ballot HOF. https://t.co/gHtNOi5ggQ

— Rich Tandler (@TandlerNBCS) April 24, 2018

Timeline 

Days until:

—Rookie minicamp (5/11) 16
—OTAs start (5/22) 27
—Training camp starts (7/26) 92

The Redskins last played a game 115 days ago. They will open the 2018 NFL season at the Cardinals in 137 days. 

In case you missed it

• Alex Smith will need to be a fast learner for the Redskins to be successful
• The Redskins' draft strategy is shifting
• Terrell Edmunds should be a mid-round Redskins safety target
• Redskins will listen to draft trade offers but a trade up is unlikely
• Doug Williams talked about the draft, but actually explained free agency

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The Redskins spent modestly in 2018 free agency, and plenty of fans thought the team should have shelled out much bigger bucks. Talking with sources around the Ashburn facility, a prevaling notion became clear that the Washington brass believed they had a strong team in 2017, but they lost their chance to compete because of injuries. 

Well, the secret is out. Doug Williams said as much on Tuesday. 

"Coming out of Richmond last year, I liked this football team. I think we’ve got a tough football team, a smart football team. Some things you can’t control," Williams said Tuesday in a pre-draft media session. "We were very competitive up to a certain point, and when you have the injuries that we have, at a certain point, that competitive edge, you lose it because your best players are not playing."

Williams' words were true, and telling. 

First the true part:

• In Washington's first five games of 2017, the team went 3-2. The Redskins only lost to eventual the Super Bowl champs Philadelphia and AFC West champs Kansas City. Washington only gave up more than 100 yards rushing once in those first five games, before rookie Jonathan Allen got hurt and the defense began to look much different. After Week 5, the Redskins only held one team under 100 yards rushing and finished the year dead last in rush defense.

Now the telling part:

• The Redskins signed free agent WR Paul Richardson, and kept free agent LB Zach Brown. Beyond that, the team added inexpensive veterans in OLB Pernell McPhee and CB Orlando Scandrick. No splash moves, and recurring speculation that Washington was not offering top dollar to free agents. Bruce Allen acknowledged as much during NFL League Meetings when he explained that his team identified exactly how much they would offer free agents, their own and otherwise, and wouldn't go beyond that dollar figure. 

That means the focus of the offseason, at this point, is about this weekend's NFL Draft.

That also means the focus of the offseason, at this point, is not about Johnathan Hankins or any other free agent. 

"We’re going to deal with the draft now, and the second wave of free agents, if it’s somebody out there we feel like can help the Redskins,that’s what we’re going to do," Williams said. 

Throughout the offseason, Redskins fans wanted more action from their front office. It didn't happen, and Williams' basically explained why on Tuesday. The brass likes their team, and by default, expects better health and luck in 2018. 

When Williams talks about drafting the best player available, it's not just the typical NFL front office tripe. Right or wrong, the Redskins believe they have a team ready to compete in 2018, and any rookies that come in will only supplement that position.

"At the end of the day, I like this football team we’ve got. Like, last year when I walked out of camp, I thought we had a pretty good football team and I still feel the same way today," Williams said.

"At the end of the day, you get the best football player, and if that best football player is the guy that you want to plug and play, that’s all right. But if that’s the best football player that’s going to help your team overall, I think that’s the route you have to go."

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