The statistical-minded folks over at the football website ProFootballFocus are always coming up with new formulas to help quantify what's taking place on the gridiron and in the fantasy football world. The latest newfangled equation from PFF writer Bryan Fontaine is named for a former Redskins wide receiver - and indicates a potential breakout season for one of the current options (here's a hint - the tall one)The "Lloyd Factor" named after Brandon Lloyd, came to be after the receiver in 2010 went from NFL afterthought to dominant force. After totaling59 receptions between 2006 (his first season in Washington) and 2009, Lloyd exploded for 77-148-11 with the Broncos. What accounted for the dramatic turnaround? Redskins nation surely ponderedthat question after watching his two uber-frustrating seasons in Washington.Obviously, on a basic level, Lloyd simply had tons more targets. That helps.What Fontaine sought to uncover was whether Lloyd's breakout campaign couldhave been predicted. The answer, yes, along with those authored by the likes of Stevie Johnson and Lance Moore. The essence of the discovery: forgettotal stats, but rather focus on per play production."What is more important is how efficient a wide receiver is on a per play basis and if they can make the most of a limited number of targets. With the benefit of our exclusive data, we can go beyond the box score to see detailed snap data and identify players who were targeted frequently when on the field and produced fantasy points when given the opportunity."Which brings us to one Leonard Hankerson, the Redskins third round pick in 2011. During his rookie campaign the 6-foot-2 targetstruggled, sat and eventually wound up injured, missing the bulk ofthe final two months. In between there were two rather glorious weeks as Hankerson appeared proficient and at times dominant, including his eight receptions for 106 yards outing against the Dolphins. It's those two weeks that caught the attention of Fontainte's "Lloyd Factor"."After seeing just 12 snaps in Weeks 7 and 8 combined, Hankerson played in 91 of the total snaps in Weeks 9 and 10 before a hip injury ended his rookie season. Hankerson was impressive in his two starts, totaling 12 receptions on 15 targets for 140 yards. He now faces a crowded depth chart with the additions of Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon and a resurgent Santana Moss. Garcon is projected as one starter (93 at RWR the last three years with Colts), with an open competition for the other spot. There is a good chance Hankerson could win the other spot at split end as a featured player. He has the size, speed and hands to be a No. 1 wide receiver in time."If a breakout season for Hankerson is truly in the cards, Lloyd's tangential contribution would be his most significant involving the Redskins. Better late than never.
For months, draft conversation suggested that there wasn't an offensive tackle to pick in the Top 10. And after Bradley Chubb, there wasn't an edge defender worth a Top 10 pick either.
All of a sudden, that conversation is changing.
Late charges from Notre Dame tackle Mike McGlinchey, Boston College defensive end Harold Landry and University of Texas San Antonio pass rusher Marcus Davenport are starting to influence mock drafts.
On Wednesday, NFL Network's Peter Schrager predicted the 49ers to take McGlinchey with the ninth overall pick. Charley Casserly, in a mock draft with NBC Sports Washington on Monday, predicted the Chicago Bears take Davenport with the eighth overall pick. Reports on Landry are all over the place, but some guess he could break the Top 10 as well.
The thing to remember about the NFL: It's a passing league. Positions tied to the quarterback are the most important, and that means protecting the QB and getting after the QB is in high demand. No position will ever get over-drafted like quarterback, but it's not a surprise that teams might reach for players at tackle or edge rusher.
What does this mean for the Redskins holding the No. 13 pick?
It means great news.
Washington will already benefit from four QBs going in the Top 10. That will likely push down an elite talent to their draft spot.
If McGlinchey, Davenport or Landry also crack the Top 10? Even better.
The Redskins need help at just about every position group on the defensive side of the ball. It's well documented how the team struggled against the run in 2017, but the defense also lost Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller this offseason.
There will be a number of weapons available for Washington at 13, and that could include players like Minkah Fitzpatrick or Derwin James in addition to Vita Vea or Da'Ron Payne. It might mean Tremaine Edmunds or Roquan Smith lasts to 13 too.
For the Redskins, Fitzpatrick or James at 13 seems like a steal. Both players present elite potential at the evolving position of nickel cornerback. They can play some corner, some safety, and James might even be able to play some linebacker.
Regardless of the eventual destination for James or Fitzpatrick, if more surprise players sneak into the Top 10 on Thursday night, the better Washington's options become. And that includes the possibility of trading down, Vea or Payne, Smith or Edmunds.
More elite options at 13 only helps the Redskins.
Redskins fans should be rooting for Mike McGlinchey, Harold Landry or Marcus Davenport early Thursday night. The folks in Ashburn will be.
MORE 2018 NFL DRAFT:
- Mock Draft 9.0: Almost draft day
- Top Prospects: RB options for the Redskins
- Top Prospects: WR options for the Redskins
- Need To Know: Rich Tandler's Seven-Round Redskins Mock Draft
- Mega-Mock Predictions: DC Media choose No. 13 pick
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NBC Sports Washington’s four-part digital series ‘E-Boyz’ -- chronicling the illustrious past, decorated present and bright future of the Edmunds family -- is NOW LIVE. Check out a new episode daily, leading up to the 2018 NFL Draft. Watch the third episode above and more here.
A position change. A school change. A season-ending injury.
Those are the kinds of things that prevent an NFL career from ever starting. But none of those things stopped Trey Edmunds from reaching the league and contributing for the Saints as a rookie in 2017.
Trey, the oldest brother in a family that features 2018 prospects Tremaine and Terrell, came out of high school as a linebacker, but became a running back after enrolling at Virginia Tech. After three productive seasons with the Hokies, he transferred to finish up his career with Maryland, yet his senior season was cut short after fracturing his foot five games in to the schedule.
That injury was a big reason why the 2017 NFL Draft came and went without a phone call for Edmunds, so he signed with the Saints as an undrafted free agent in May. There, he played spot duty on special teams for much of his rookie campaign before his breakout moment in November:
Now, heading into his second pro year, Edmunds will reportedly have to fight for a roster spot in New Orleans again. But hey, adversity is something the 23-year-old is very familiar with, so don't bet against him.