Here is what you need to know on this Wednesday, April 12, 15 days before the April 27 NFL draft.
—Offseason workouts begin (4/17) 5
—Redskins rookie camp (5/12) 30
—Redskins OTAs start (5/24) 42
—First Sunday of 2017 season (9/10) 151
Trade up/trade down options for the Redskins
I did a mock draft for the Redskins yesterday and when I made the first-round pick there really wasn’t anyone on the board at No. 17 who I thought would have sufficient impact on the team. It was a perfect situation for the Redskins to trade down and collect some more picks or, if they are targeting a particular player, use some of their 10 picks to trade up.
Let’s take the latter scenario first. Suppose the Redskins think that RB Christian McCaffrey will be the perfect addition to change their offense from good to great. But there is credible intel out there that the Eagles, who are drafting three spots earlier at 14th, will take the former Stanford star. What would it take for the Redskins to jump ahead of Philly?
Per the draft pick trade chart, the 17th pick is worth 950 points and the 13th is worth 1,150. To move up to No. 13 the Redskins would have to give up their third-round pick (No. 81, 185 points) and possibly one of their sixth-round picks. The lesson here is that moving up in the first round is very expensive. A third-round pick has about a 50 percent chance of evolving into being a starter at some point.
On the other side, suppose they don’t trade up and they’re looking at the same situation I was the mock yesterday, with nobody particularly appealing on the board. I had it set up so I couldn’t make trades but, of course, that would be an option for the Redskins.
You first thing you have to remember about trading down is that another team has to want to trade up. In other words, another team must look at the same pool of available players that you’re looking at and be excited enough about one of them to give up a future starter as part of a deal to move up.
It’s usually quarterbacks who excite teams enough to make moves so let’s say that Mitchell Trubisky of North Carolina is still hanging around at No. 17 and the Texans, who have the 25th pick, see him as their QB of the future.
The 25th pick is worth 720 points so the Texans would have to come up with 230 points of value to move up. Their third-round pick (No. 81), worth 185, and their fourth rounder (No. 131), 41, would total 226. Bill O’Brien could throw in a few racks of BBQ ribs and they could call it even.
Let’s look at one more trade back that would net the Redskins a bigger haul. Cleveland needs a quarterback and they might think that they can bypass Trubisky with their two first-round picks at No. 1 and No. 12 and move up to get him a little later. The Browns have two second-round picks, No. 33 (580 points) and No. 52 (380 points). Those add up to 960 points, making it just about the right price for Washington’s 950-point pick at 17.
That would leave the Redskins without a first-round pick but they could get some quality players with three second-round picks—their own and the two from the Browns. In fact, with that 33rd pick the Redskins could jump up into the end of the first round with a Saturday pick. Their later fourth-rounder, No. 124 overall, could get them to about pick No. 29.
This is all hypothetical and the value chart is only a guide, not a hard and fast way of doing business. But it does give you an idea of what to look for if the Redskins start wheeling and dealing.
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