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Need to Know: Redskins odds on to make the playoffs?


Need to Know: Redskins odds on to make the playoffs?

Here is what you need to know on this Friday, July 19, six days before the Redskins start training camp.

FO gives Redskins solid chances at playoffs

Football Outsiders has published its annual almanac (PDF is available now, print edition coming soon). That used to be an occasion that made Redskins fans cringe as the writers would excoriate the absence of a team-building plan and make dire predictions for the season to come.

What a difference having a quarterback in a quarterback-driven league makes.

Doug Farrar, who wrote the Redskins section of the book, said that the acquisition of Robert Griffin III was “a rare and worthy all-in push on a franchise-altering player.” They believe that it altered the franchise to the point where they are not only no longer laughingstocks but a team with a legitimate chance at being Super Bowl contenders.

FO is very confident that the Redskins will not slip back into mediocrity like they have after other promising seasons in the past. They give them only a 9 percent chance of winning seven or fewer games. That flips into the Redskins having a 91 percent chance of having at least a .500 record.

The most jaw-dropping number presented is their postseason odds. The Redskins have a 74.2 percent chance of being a playoff participant. Their Super Bowl odds are 17.6 percent. If you translate those into Vegas style odds they would be an odds-on 1 to 3 shot at making the playoffs and about 6 to 1 to make the Super Bowl.

There is a ton of other great information about both the Redskins and every other team in the league so I would strongly recommend you get the book. Redskins fans will be happy to see some independent confirmation that their team is headed in the right direction from a source that has been very critical of the organization in the past.

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In case you missed it

Days until: Training camp starts 6; Preseason Game 3 vs. Bills 36; Final cuts 43

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Good news Redskins fans: Jason Pierre-Paul shipped out of NFC East


Good news Redskins fans: Jason Pierre-Paul shipped out of NFC East

The Giants shipped out Jason Pierre-Paul for life as a Buccaneer, and in turn, Tampa will send a third and fourth round draft pick to New York.

Moving Pierre-Paul comes at a curious time for the Giants. The team will eat $15 million of dead money in the move, and New York also sent a fourth-round pick to Tampa as part of the transaction. 

What it definitely signals is that Big Blue looks to be moving from a 4-3 base defense to a 3-4 look. Additionally, with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft in April, maybe the Giants will seriously look at NC State defensive lineman Bradley Chubb. 


For the Redskins, seeing Pierre-Paul leave the NFC East is welcome news. He has 12.5 career sacks against Washington QBs, the same amount he has against the Eagles and Cowboys combined. 

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Looking at the details of Zach Brown's contract with the Redskins

Looking at the details of Zach Brown's contract with the Redskins

The Redskins and linebacker Zach Brown agreed to a three-year contract that will require Brown to continue to play at a high level if he is going to collect all of the $21 million the deal contains.

Brown’s camp reportedly was shopping for a contract that had some $20 million in guaranteed money. The actual deal fell well short of that.

Brown, who was leading the league in tackles before an assortment of injuries forced him to sit out the last three games, got a total of $5.5 million in fully guaranteed money. He got a $4.5 million signing bonus and his $1 million salary for 2018 is fully guaranteed.


After that, the remaining two seasons essentially are team options. In 2019 he has a $6.75 million salary and $4.5 million of that is guaranteed for injury. His 2020 salary is $7.5 million with no guarantees of any kind.

The contract also has per-game roster bonuses available at a rate of $15,625 for each game he is on the 46-man game day roster in 2018 (total of $250,000 for the year) and $31,250 per game in 2019 and 2020 ($500,000 total).

The salary cap hits per year are as follows:

2018: $2.75 million
2019: $8.75 million
2020: $9.5 million

The average annual value of $7 million ranks ninth among inside linebackers.

Brown will need to continue to play well to collect on the contract. The team will be able to save $5.75 million on the 2019 cap if they terminate the deal after one season and $8 million if they do it in 2020.


Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page and follow him on Twitter @TandlerNBCS.