If you've read this website, or this column, you know the likelihood of the Redskins reaching a long-term deal with Kirk Cousins before July 17th seems like a long shot. Still, some optimism exists that Washington will pony up the mega-cash required to keep Cousins.
Evidence to the contrary continues to mount. Last week former Redskins GM Charley Casserly explained the numbers required for Cousins' representatives to truly consider signing would be so staggering that he doesn't "see any way a deal gets done." (See full video above).
Well, here are a few more voices echoing Casserly's position.
- Albert Breer, MMQB: "If Kirk Cousins does a deal now? He’d be walking away from one of three scenarios. The first would be playing on the tag this year and the transition tag next, which would set his earning floor at about $52 million over the next two years, with a chance to test his market value next March. The second would have him franchised twice, setting the floor at $58 million over the next two years, with a chance to be a free agent in 2019 at age 30. The third is $24 million and unfettered free agency next year."
- Joel Corry, CBS Sports: "Cousins is in an enviable position. It's conceivable that he could do significantly better than this if he hit the open market in 2018, because there are more NFL teams than good quarterbacks."
- Steve Czaban, ESPN980: "I don’t think the David Carr signing does anything really to help or hurt the chances Kirk signs a new long term deal by July 17. I thought those chances were only about 5 percent before this new QB salary 'data point' and it was a 'courtesy' 5 percent anyway, filed under: 'Well… you never know.'"
There's more of this out there, just look for it. And more of this will pile up over the next few weeks, right up until the point where Cousins does not agree to a new deal with the Redskins and enters 2017 on yet another one-year contract.
The hard truth remains that from a purely financial standpoint it makes very little sense for Cousins to sign a multi-year deal unless it is simply overwhelming with guaranteed cash. The Redskins would almost need to go with a full Vito Corleone "offer you can't refuse" to sign Cousins.
It's also possible Cousins will realize the money is already staggering and that the situation in Washington is strong. The franchise appears to already be headed in this direction. Doug Williams talked on NFL Network about the need to "look at the big picture." In Jay Gruden's offense, Cousins has excelled, and the team has a strong offensive line with solid skill position weapons.
Breer also touched on that theory, explaining that maybe the Redskins situation isn't that rosy: "And if you’re Cousins, and you know Kyle Shanahan and the Niners would be out there for you, and you’ve got a new offensive coordinator, and you lost your two starting receivers, and your organization just flipped things around in its front office, the idea of waiting would have benefits beyond just the economics, too."
The evidence slants hard one direction when considering if Cousins will agree to a long-term deal with the Redskins. It doesn't look good.
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