Redskins

Quick Links

What does Ryan Tannehill's extension mean for the Redskins' RG3?

screenshot-2015-05-19-09-12-41.png

What does Ryan Tannehill's extension mean for the Redskins' RG3?

Ryan Tannehill of the Dolphins became the first of the quarterbacks who came out in the 2012 draft to sign a contract extension yesterday. The Redskins have one of those quarterbacks in Robert Griffin III. What effect will Tannehill’s deal have on Griffin?

First let’s look at the money. Tannehill was already under contract for the next two seasons with the last year of his rookie contract and the fifth-year option paying him a total of $18.3 million. The extension adds the years 2017-2020 to the deal and adds $77 million.

Tannehill’s contract gives him $21.5 million fully guaranteed at signing per Pro Football Talk. The total guaranteed money, which includes some that is currently guaranteed for injury only at the time the contract is signed, is $45 million.

So how does that compare to a contract extension that Griffin, who also has the last year of his rookie deal plus the option year left on his deal, might get? Looking at just their total career passing stats there is no reason to think that Griffin should get substantially less than Tannehill in a new contract. Here is a comparison of some key stats. (For detailed stats on each player go here for Tannehill and go here for Griffin.)

The two are equal in touchdown pass percentage and Tannehill is slightly better in avoiding sacks. But Griffin has the edge in completion percentage, interception percentage, gross yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt and passer rating.

Griffin’s numbers include his stellar 2012 season, one that he did not come close to duplicating in his subsequent two seasons. But even Griffin’s 2013 season, which was widely considered to be a disappointment, was about the same as a typical Tannehill season. Here are some of Griffin’s numbers from that season compared to Tannehill’s career.

When it comes to the bottom line, wins and losses, there is no question that Tannehill’s Dolphins have been superior to Griffin’s Redskins. Miami is 23-25 in games Tannehill has started while Washington has gone 14-21 in Griffin’s starts.

However, the two quarterbacks have not had equal amounts of help when it comes to putting up wins. The Dolphins’ scoring defense has ranked 7th, 8th, and 20th in Tannehill’s three seasons; the Redskins have been 22nd, 29th, and 30th in scoring defense over the same three years.

All of the information above is the kind of data that Griffin’s agent will present to Scot McCloughan or Bruce Allen or whoever is negotiating a new contract on behalf of the Redskins, trying to argue that Griffin should get a deal at least as good as Tannehill’s or perhaps even better. But the Redskins will have plenty of data on their side to argue that Griffin isn’t worth as much as Tannehill.

Durability is the main quality that Tannehill has going for him over Griffin. The Dolphins have had him behind center for 48 of the 48 games they have played since draft him. He has been listed as questionable on the injury report just twice; other than that he has been either probably or not listed.

Griffin has started 36 of the Redskins’ 49 games since 2012 (counting the one playoff game in 2012). He missed one game due to injury as a rookie and was out six games injured last year. In addition, Griffin was “deactivated” for the last three games of 2013 and benched for performance for three starts last year. Tannehill has a clear advantage in terms of one of the most important “abilities”, availability.

The other thing that Tannehill has going for him is that he appears to be on the rise. In 2014 he posted career-best numbers in virtually every major category—completion percentage, touchdowns, interceptions, yards per attempt, passer rating, and adjusted net yards per attempt. He is doing what a young quarterback is supposed to do, learning and getting better.

Meanwhile, I’m sure it’s not necessary to detail the miserable 2014 season that Griffin had for the readers here. His arrow is currently pointed in the wrong direction.

Fortunately for both parties, it’s not necessary for Griffin and the Redskins to negotiate an extension right now. Griffin will have at least another year to try to turn things around. If he can, the $19.25 million per year that the new money in Tannehill’s contract will pay him would be well within his reach.

Quick Links

2018 NFL Draft order has Redskins pick nearing top ten as losses stockpile

nfl-draft-2017-usat.png
USA Today Sports Images

2018 NFL Draft order has Redskins pick nearing top ten as losses stockpile

LOS ANGELES — Some years, the December talk is of playoff tiebreakers.

Other years, it’s about draft position.

This is one of those “other” years.

The Redskins’ current skid of four losses in their last five games has knocked them out of playoff contention but into more favorable position in the 2018 NFL Draft, which is scheduled to take place in late April.

The Redskins' record is 5-8 through Week 14,  and if the season ended today, Washington would be picking either 11th or 12th in the first round.

Here’s the big picture: As of today, there are eight teams that have fewer wins than Washington. All of them would be picking ahead of the Redskins. 

The Bengals and Jets also have eight losses so the one and only draft order tiebreaker would be applied.

RELATED: NEW 2018 NFL MOCK DRAFT 3.0

This does not work out well for the Redskins.

The NFL Draft tiebreaker is strength of schedule with the teams with the weaker schedules getting the better picks. I am sure you have heard about how tough a schedule the Redskins have all year long. It was a point of pride for many fans. But now it comes back to bite them.

The Jets (opponents winning percentage .488) and the Bengals (.444) have faced weaker schedules than the Redskins (.574). That pushes Washington back to 11th.

RELATED: FEW UPS, MANY DOWNS VS. CHARGERS

But there is a Week 14 game pending. The Dolphins, who have seven losses, play the Patriots on Monday Night Football. If they lose and join the eight-loss group, they would jump ahead of the Redskins based on the SOS tiebreaker, pushing Washington back to 12th.

Of course, the season doesn’t end today and a lot can happen.

But if the bottom doesn’t completely fall out it seems likely that they will end up somewhere between 10th and 12th in the first round.

We will be looking at what that might mean for the Redskins in the coming days and weeks as the offseason comes early for the Redskins one more time.

Quick Links

NFL Playoff Picture: NFC bracket projection starting to come into focus

eagles_seahawks_usat.jpg
USA Today Sports

NFL Playoff Picture: NFC bracket projection starting to come into focus

The NFC Playoff picture is no clearer in Week 14 than it was in Week 8.

Throughout the 2017-18 NFL season, the NFC in particular has been a gauntlet. So much of a gauntlet that one of the league’s best in the past five years, the Seattle Seahawks, sit outside of the postseason with an 8-5 record.

As of the conclusion of Week 14’s action, only the Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) have locked up a postseason spot.

The Eagles claimed the NFC East for the first time since 2013 with a win over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. The will clinch a first round bye with a win and losses by the Saints and the Panthers this weekend.

The Minnesota Vikings (10-3) with their loss remains second in the conference, still within striking range over the overall No. 1 seed.

With losses to the two teams ahead of them, the Rams (9-4) have a tough hill to climb to claim a first-round bye, but first they need to get back in the win column.

For the WildCard berths there was a wrench thrown into many teams plans with the Atlanta Falcons (8-5) defeating the New Orleans Saints (9-4) on Thursday night. Atlanta owns a tiebreaker over pretty much every team chasing them for the final playoff spot.

For the five remaining unclaimed spots in the postseason, 10 teams are still alive.

After Week 15 though, that number could dwindle down significantly.

RELATED: NEW 2018 NFL MOCK DRAFT 3.0

NFC Playoff Picture Week 15

NFC PLAYOFF BRACKET PROJECTION:
— #1 Philadelphia Eagles* (11-2) vs. BYE
— #2 Minnesota Vikings (10-3) vs. BYE
— #3 Los Angeles Rams (9-4) vs. #6 Atlanta Falcons (8-5)
— #4 New Orleans Saints (9-4) vs. #5 Carolina Panthers (9-4)

NFC TEAMS IN THE PLAYOFF HUNT:
— Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
— Detroit Lions (7-6)
— Green Bay Packers (7-6)
— Dallas Cowboys (7-6)
— Arizona Cardinals (6-7)

NFC TEAMS ELIMINATED PLAYOFF PICTURE:
— Washington Redskins (5-8)
— Tampa Bay Buccaneerrs (4-9)
— Chicago Bears (4-9)
— San Francisco 49ers (3-10)
— New York Giants (2-11)

SEEDING NOTES:
— Eagles own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rams, Panthers.
— Vikings own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rams, Saints, and Falcons.
— Saints own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Panthers.
— Rams own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Saints.
— Panthers own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings.

WILD CARD NOTES:
— Panthers own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lions.
— Falcons own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lions, Packers, Cowboys, and Seahawks.
— Lions own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cardinals.
— Packers own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks, Cowboys.
— Cowboys own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cardinals.

Week 15 NFC Games With Playoff Implications:

Sat., Dec 16: Bears at Lions (4:30 p.m.)
Sun., Dec 17: Bengals at Vikings (1:00 p.m.)
Sun., Dec 17: Jets at Saints (1:00 p.m.)
Sun., Dec 17: Eagles at Giants (1:00 p.m.)
Sun., Dec 17: Cardinals at Redskins (1:00 p.m.)
Sun., Dec 17: Panthers at Packers (1:00 p.m.)
Sun., Dec 17: Rams at Seahawks (4:05 p.m.)
Sun., Dec 17: Cowboys at Raiders (8:30 p.m.)
Mon., Dec 18: Falcons at Buccaneers (8:30 p.m.)