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2019 NFL mock draft: How Kyler Murray decision could shake things up

2019 NFL mock draft: How Kyler Murray decision could shake things up

Kyler Murray has fans of two sports on the edge of their seats.

The Oakland A's prospect announced Monday he will enter the 2019 NFL Draft, but that doesn't mean he'll end up playing football. Such a decision might end up making the most sense, but there still is some question about where Murray will be selected.

So, let's look at where Murray is projected by some to end up, and which players the 49ers and the Raiders might select in the first round. 

CBS Sports

Oakland Raiders, No. 4 overall: Alabama DL Quinnen Williams 

New York Giants, No. 6 overall: Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray

San Francisco 49ers, No. 7 overall: Clemson DE Clelin Ferrell 

What it means: Ryan Wilson's mock draft has the 49ers trading back with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who select Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins in the No. 2 slot. With a QB going so early, the Raiders would be able to select one of the draft's elite prospects. 

The 49ers, who do not need a signal-caller with a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo in tow, also would benefit from a run on QBs early in the draft. Ferrell, fresh off a national championship at Levi's Stadium, would be an immediate upgrade off the edge. 

SB Nation

San Francisco 49ers, No. 2 overall: Kentucky OLB/DE Josh Allen

Oakland Raiders, No. 4 overall: Alabama DL Quinnen Williams

Jacksonville Jaguars, No. 7 overall: Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray

What it means: There were no trades in Dan Kadar's mock draft, but he still has two QBs going in the top 10. With such a run taking place after the 49ers and the Raiders step up to the podium, they're left to pick from plenty of strong options. 

Allen had to look up who Ronnie Lott was, but the Kentucky product would improve a 49ers pass rush that tied for 22nd in the NFL in 2018 with 37 sacks. The Raiders again are left to select Williams, who ultimately might prove to be too talented to pass up on. 

The Draft Network

San Francisco 49ers, No. 2 overall: Ohio State DE Nick Bosa

Oakland Raiders, No. 4 overall: Alabama safety Deionte Thompson

Miami Dolphins, No. 13 overall: Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray

What it means: If the NFC West rival Arizona Cardinals draft Williams No. 1 overall, as Benjamin Solak projects, the 49ers would be left to select an edge rusher who some consider to be the best player in this year's draft. San Francisco likely will have plenty of options up front at No. 2, but Bosa "falling" might be an ideal scenario.

The Raiders, meanwhile, desperately need help in the defensive backfield, and Thompson could be the ballhawk free safety the Silver and Black are seeking.

As for Murray, being selected at No. 13 still would provide a nice financial windfall. Da'Ron Payne, the 13th pick in the 2018 draft, received a signing bonus worth $8.566 million -- nearly $4 million more than what Murray would have to repay to the A's if he chose a career in pro football. 

49ers expected to win 10 or fewer games in 2020 by Pro Football Focus

49ers expected to win 10 or fewer games in 2020 by Pro Football Focus

The 49ers went 13-3 in the regular season last year, barely edging out the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints for the top seed in the NFC playoffs. San Francisco should be good again in 2020, and certainly capable of contending for a playoff spot -- if not more. That said, there's reason to believe the Niners will have a worse record in the season ahead, even if they're not necessarily a worse team.

A few days after San Francisco's heartbreaking loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV, early NFL season win totals were posted, and the 49ers were given an over/under of 10.5 victories. Pro Football Focus' Eric Eager recently examined some of his favorite values based on those early win total projections, and San Francisco's 'under' was among the select few.

"The 49ers are in a very similar place to where the Los Angeles Rams were a season ago," Eager wrote. "They have a great, young offensive mind, a quarterback who is good but needs infrastructure to succeed and a defense that was among the league's best, especially up front."

In explaining his reasoning for the under, Eager focused on some of San Francisco's pending free agents.

"With Emmanuel Sanders, Arik Armstead and Jimmie Ward set to be free agents, and with only $13 million in cap space and a situation where the team likely needs to get better fundamentally just to stay the same, look for the 49ers to remain a good team in 2020 but, like the Rams, fall short of double-digit-win expectations against a schedule that includes non-NFC West opponents New England, Dallas, Buffalo, New Orleans and Green Bay."

That last bit is important, too. As part of the league's effort to create parity, the 49ers had a third-place schedule last season, after finishing in third place in the NFC West in 2018. That obviously won't be the case in 2020, as San Francisco will play a first-place schedule as the reigning NFC West champions. 

So, Eager brings up several good points. The 49ers will not only have a tougher schedule in the coming season, but also might be without one or more marquee players that helped them reach the Super Bowl. Add in the fact that San Francisco won't be sneaking up on any teams in the year ahead, and it's easy to understand why the Niners are expected to win fewer games in 2020 than they did in 2019.

However, I'd caution against comparing the 2020 49ers to the 2019 Rams.

Whereas San Francisco reached the Super Bowl with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo carrying a $20 million cap hit, Los Angeles did so while Jared Goff still was on his rookie contract, which carried a cap hit of just under $3 million. That's an extra $17 million the Rams could comparatively spread around their roster to build a Super Bowl contender that the 49ers didn't have.

This is why good quarterbacks on rookie contracts are so valuable.

Los Angeles ran into trouble once Goff's rookie contract concluded -- prior to the start of last season. He carried a $26 million cap hit this past season, and without that additional financial flexibility, the Rams had to cut costs elsewhere, which significantly deteriorated their overall depth. The end result? Going from Super Bowl runner-up to a 9-7 non-playoff team.

While the 49ers will have to make some tough decisions due to their salary-cap constraints as Eager noted, the space they have already has been accounted for their QB's large salary. Yes, they still need to re-sign some big-money players, but they should be far better able to retain the depth that made them so formidable than the Rams proved capable of.

[RELATED: Why 49ers seem to be in good shape at QB this offseason]

The odds are against San Francisco reaching at least 13 regular-season wins in 2020. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll be a worse team, though, and expecting a three-victory dropoff (or more) seems a bit extreme for a team that was minutes away from winning the Lombardi Trophy, and should return most of what made them so dominant.

49ers' road back to Super Bowl made tougher by Drew Brees, Greg Olsen

49ers' road back to Super Bowl made tougher by Drew Brees, Greg Olsen

The 49ers' road back to the Super Bowl always was going to be tougher than their most recent one. That's what happens when you play a first-place schedule as opposed to a third-place one. But based on a couple of developments Tuesday, that road just got even tougher.

First, Drew Brees took to Instagram to let the world know he would be returning for a 20th NFL season and 15th with the New Orleans Saints.

Brees, who turned 41 in January, was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent next month, but the quarterback previously had made it clear that he would either retire or return for another season in the Big Easy. Clearly, he chose the latter.

While Brees and the Saints still will need to agree to a contract, it appears that is a foregone conclusion. When Brees hit free agency in 2018, he agreed to a two-year, $50 million contract with New Orleans, but with only one year guaranteed.

Brees will be back with the Saints for the 2020 NFL season, but it now appears unlikely that his backup, Teddy Bridgewater, will do the same. Like Brees, Bridgewater is an unrestricted free agent, and is likely to command a higher salary on the open market than New Orleans can afford after he went 5-0 as a starter while Brees was injured last season.

Taysom Hill, the Saints' do-it-all third-string QB, is a restricted free agent, so New Orleans can match any offer for him and stands a much better chance of retaining him than Bridgewater.

The Saints arguably were San Francisco's toughest competition in the NFC last season, and matched the Niners with a 13-3 regular-season record. That was with Brees missing five games with a thumb injury, and there is every reason to believe New Orleans will be one of the best teams in the conference again in 2020.

If the Saints weren't the 49ers' toughest opponent last season, then it probably was the Seattle Seahawks, who beat San Francisco at Levi's Stadium and came within inches of sweeping the regular-season series to win the division title. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has been a thorn in San Francisco's side ever since he was drafted by Seattle in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft, and he just got another weapon.

Former Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen signed a one-year, $7 million contract with the Seahawks on Tuesday with $5.5 million guaranteed. ESPN's Adam Schefter was first to report the news.

Olsen isn't what he once was, as injuries have taken their toll on the 13-year NFL veteran. Still, after being limited to 16 combined games over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, Olsen appeared in 14 games for Carolina last year and hauled in 52 receptions for 597 yards and two touchdowns. 

With Will Dissly coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon, Jacob Hollister a restricted free agent and Luke Willson an unrestricted free agent, Seattle was in dire need of some quality tight end depth. Olsen checks that box, and since he was released by the Panthers, the signing won't cost the Seahawks a compensatory draft pick.

With wide receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf posing major problems on the outside, Olsen likely will have more room to operate in the middle of the field than all those years spent in Carolina, where he was often his team's No. 1 receiving option. Of course, he'll have to stay healthy to be of use.

[RELATED: 49ers have solid running backs, but group lacks something]

The 49ers have some tough decisions to make in how they plan to load up for next season. Clearly, some of their top competitors already have begun that process.