As the 49ers start to look toward 2021 and survey their starting quarterback options, a potential target might have emerged but it's one the 49ers should run, not walk, away from.
On Tuesday, the expected finally became reality as Doug Pederson announced that Jalen Hurts will replace Carson Wentz as the starting quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles when they face the New Orleans Saints in Week 14.
Wentz has been among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season and finally was benched Sunday during the Eagles' loss to the Green Bay Packers after throwing for just 79 yards and completing just 40 percent of his passes in two-and-a-half quarters at Lambeau Field.
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It would be smart for the Eagles to stick with Hurts for the rest of the season. Wentz has spent all season getting pummeled behind a bad offensive line while throwing to receivers who can't separate. Pederson should give Hurts the final four weeks and allow Wentz's body and mind to heal up while seeing if Hurts has what it takes to be an NFL quarterback.
Should Hurts play well and show promise as a potential franchise quarterback, then the Eagles will have a decision to make in regards to Wentz. Moving on from Wentz will be virtually impossible for the Eagles this offseason. They signed Wentz to a four-year, $128 million extension in 2019 that kicks in starting in 2021. Next year, Wentz will count for $35 million on the Eagles' salary cap. It will cost them $59 million in dead cap money to release him.
So, that's not happening.
What about a trade, you say, thinking about how Wentz looked like a potential All-Pro quarterback, at least in YouTube highlights, during the 2017 season? Yes, trading Wentz is the only way the Eagles have to rid themselves of him but they'd have to find a team who believes they can rehabilitate Wentz and is willing to take on the contract. Trading Wentz this offseason would cost the Eagles $33 million in dead cap but would save them money in the long run as they are free of Wentz's contract. For the team acquiring Wentz, the deal would be more manageable. Thanks to the amount of guaranteed and up-front money in Wentz's contract, the team acquiring Wentz would get him at around $24 million a year, which is quite reasonable.
San Francisco 49ers
We know all about Kyle Shanahan's ability to get the most out of quarterbacks and if the perennial All-Pro of 2017 still resides in there, the 49ers coach would be the guy to unlock him.
All that being said, the 49ers should steer clear of Wentz if he becomes available. In fact, they should drive their metaphorical car into a ravine if they see him approaching.
Wentz has been among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season: Full stop. He's completed 57.4 percent of his passes for 2,620 yards, 16 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. That's good for a 72.8 rating. He ranks second-to-last in completion percentage among qualified quarterbacks, fourth-to-last in interception percentage, third-to-last in yards per attempt and third-to-last in quarterback rating.
Not good.
Since the start of the 2019 season, Wentz leads the NFL in turnover-worthy plays. He's also the only quarterback under 30 in NFL history to see their passer rating decline by 24 points or more from their combined rating during the previous three seasons.
But remember 2017? Of course, and Wentz was spectacular that season. But if you look deeper at that season, it's a bit of fool's gold.
In 2017, Wentz was really good in two places: On third down and in the red zone. Those are obviously very important places for a quarterback to succeed.
According to the Expected Points Added metric at Sports Info Solutions, Wentz was more of a mediocre quarterback in 2017 than the numbers would have you believe. If you take out Wentz's third-down and fourth-down production in 2017, he falls from No. 2 in EPA to No. 23, making him a bottom-10 quarterback. Obviously, Wentz faced more first and second downs so this gives us a bigger sample size.
The same drop happens if you look at his success rate. In 2017, Wentz led the NFL with a success rate of 61.7 percent in the red zone. Outside of the red zone, his success rate dropped to 18 in the NFL.
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As they search for their long-term answer at quarterback, the 49ers should look long and hard at almost every option that is presented at them this offseason.
But not Wentz.
Money aside, Wentz always has been a below-average quarterback. Yes, the Eagles' offensive line woes and receiver issues have exacerbated the problem. But at the end of the day, Wentz always has been a mediocre quarterback.
Even if the money worked, there's no reason for the 49ers to even entertain the idea of turning the team over the Wentz.
He's simply not good enough. And he never has been.