The 49ers are entering the offseason intending to trade Jimmy Garoppolo and begin the Trey Lance era in full.
Garoppolo's exit from San Francisco isn't written in stone, but it would be a stunning turn of events to see the 30-year-old signal-caller back in Santa Clara next season. Garoppolo's future in San Francisco is relatively clear. But where he lands and what the 49ers bring back for him is impossible to gauge.
And we might not know for some time. A handful of teams are expected to look for a starting-caliber quarterback this offseason, including the Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders, Denver Broncos, and others.
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While any of those teams could be an option for Garoppolo, the quarterback carousel is all about pecking order. Garoppolo is a solid NFL starter with clear limitations. But with Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and potentially Deshaun Watson all available this offseason, the 49ers will have to wait to see how the market shakes out.
If Rodgers decides he no longer wants to play in Green Bay, the four-time MVP will have every team needing a quarterback upgrade putting in a bid. Recent reports suggest the Packers plan to make moves to keep Rodgers (duh), but if the 38-year-old wants to move on, then he will be the big fish in the quarterback pond.
Should Rodgers elect to stay in Green Bay, Wilson will become the most sought-after prize should he ask out of Seattle.
Garoppolo's value will be determined by which veteran quarterbacks are on the trade market. If Rodgers, Wilson, Watson, and potentially Derek Carr are available, then the 49ers' asking price for Garoppolo will come in under the price for the higher-tier quarterbacks.
San Francisco 49ers
However, if teams either miss out on Rodgers or Wilson or the two stars elect to stay put, that could lead teams to overbid for Garoppolo, not wanting to get left with carousel leftovers like Mitchell Trubisky, Jameis Winston, or potentially Carson Wentz.
Take this nugget from The Athletic's Ben Standig, who spoke to an NFL executive who suggested the Commanders could trade the No. 11 overall pick for Garoppolo if they see him as their best chance for an upgrade.
"The executive doesn’t think Garoppolo is worth the 11th selection or any first-round choice based on skill set and injury history," Standig writes. "Yet he argued the Commanders could justify sending the pick to San Francisco should they concede none of the incoming passers are worthy of that selection. For a team that needs to win now, the veteran here trumps the unproven rookies."
The 49ers' hoped to improve Garoppolo's trade value this past season while making a run at the Super Bowl. Garoppolo helped lead the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game while playing with a torn ligament in his right thumb and a sprained throwing shoulder. Mission pretty much accomplished.
Garoppolo's injury history and limitations as a downfield passer likely will limit his value on the trade market. But to a team like the Commanders, Broncos, or Steelers who feel like they are a quarterback away from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender, Garoppolo could be worth a high draft pick if better options aren't available.
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I expect the 49ers to get a second-round pick and perhaps a fourth- or fifth-round pick as well.
But it's impossible to truly judge what the 49ers will get back for Garoppolo until we know what the quarterback market will be this offseason. If Rodgers and Wilson hit the market and Watson's situation clears up, Garoppolo will have a lower trade value. Garoppolo will jump to the head of the class if some of those names don't jump on the carousel.
If the market is thin and teams are desperate, the 49ers might be able to get back much more than they expected for Garoppolo.
The QB carousel is a game of dominoes, and how they fall will dictate where Garoppolo goes and what the 49ers get in return.