49ers

Schrock's Week 12 picks: 49ers face playoff test vs. Vikings

49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo, Brandon Aiyuk
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Week 11 served as a nice bounceback week after the disaster that was Week 10. We went 9-6 ATS and only the Chicago Bears' incompetence kept us from hitting another upset special winner.

I underestimated how much the win over the Los Angeles Rams impacted the 49ers, as San Francisco quickly dismissed the notion of a trap game and hammered the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Elsewhere, the Raiders are completely falling apart and the loss of Derrick Henry finally is catching up to the Tennessee Titans.

RELATED: How Shanahan, 49ers rediscovered offensive identity

Enough talk. Let's get to the holiday winners.

RECORD: 88-76 ATS (97-67 SU)

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Line: Bears -3

Start your Thanksgiving off with Andy Dalton vs. Tim Boyle or an injured Jared Goff? Yuck. Boyle somehow made an NFL roster after having a touchdown to interception ratio of one-to-13 in college. No, that’s not a typo. That being said, the Bears’ defense is missing some important bodies and Matt Nagy might get tarmacked after the game. I’d recommend some early cocktails if you want to watch this slop fest. I’m taking Dan Campbell to hang his first kneecaps on the wall.

Pick: Lions 19, Bears 16

Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys

Line: Cowboys -7.5

The Raiders are in free fall and there is no sign they can come out of the tailspin. Dallas will be without Amari Cooper and likely without CeeDee Lamb, which means the suspect passing game that appeared in Kansas City last week might get a second act. I like the Raiders to keep it close, but Dallas wins.

 

Pick: Cowboys 28, Raiders 24

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints

Line: Bills -4.5

The Bills just got run over by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. The Saints have lost three in a row with Trevor Siemian at quarterback and likely won’t have Alvin Kamara. People will be out on Bourbon Street drinking all day, giving the Saints a raucous New Orleans holiday home-field advantage. Saints keep it close but can’t stop the bleeding.

Pick: Bills 27, Saints 23

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Line: Bengals -4.5

The Steelers relied on the Chargers almost going full Charger to get the cover last week. Pittsburgh has some defensive injuries, and the offense remains suspect. Joe Burrow has a big game and the Bengals deal a death blow to Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes.

Pick: Bengals 28, Steelers 21

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins

Line: Panthers -2

Everyone is excited about Cam Newton being back, but the former MVP still struggles to connect with receivers downfield. That Carolina’s passing game got gummed up by a suspect Washington secondary is a bad sign. The Dolphins are playing better over the last three weeks and Brian Flores’ defense should be able to make life hard on Cam.

Pick: Dolphins 20, Panthers 17 (Upset Special)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts

Line: Bucs -3

Stopping Jonathan Taylor is a tall task, but Vita Vea is expected to return. If the Bucs can keep Taylor somewhat bottled up, then it will come down to Carson Wentz making plays. Wentz has taken care of the ball this season, but I still don’t trust him.

Pick: Bucs 27, Colts 21

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars

Line: Falcons -1

I don’t know how you could watch the Falcons over the last two weeks and have any confidence they can score or keep the opposition out of the end zone. The Jags can run the ball and stop the run. That’s at least something. I’ll take the Jags but won’t watch a second of this one.

 

Pick: Jags 12, Falcons 10

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Line: Eagles -4

Jason Garrett finally has been removed from the property in East Rutherford. That might be the most positive momentum the Giants have had in the Joe Judge era. Philadelphia has been running the ball down people’s throats over the last three weeks, and I think that continues Sunday. Expect the boo birds to come out if the Giants struggle again.

Pick: Eagles 24, Giants 18

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

Line: Patriots -6.5

The Titans are a different team without Derrick Henry. Julio Jones is out and A.J. Brown is banged up. Without the threat of Henry to run the ball, Ryan Tannehill has turned back into a pumpkin. Meanwhile, the Patriots are cruising behind an opportunistic defense, bruising running game and Mac Jones’ smart decision-making. I think this line is low, this Titans team isn’t the one that beat the Bills and Chiefs.

Pick: Patriots 24, Titans 14

New York Jets at Houston Texans

Line: Texans -3

Zach Wilson is back. Whether or not that’s a good thing for the Jets remains to be seen. Tyrod Taylor played well last week and should do so again vs. a suspect Jets defense.

Pick: Texans 20, Jets 13

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

Line: Chargers -2.5

The Chargers’ defense has issues on all three levels, but the Broncos’ putt-putt offense isn’t really equipped to take advantage of those shortcomings. As long as the Chargers let Justin Herbert be Justin Herbert, they should leave Denver with a win.

Pick: Chargers 24, Broncos 20

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

Line: Rams -1

The Rams had an entire week to stew on their loss to the 49ers. That bye week also served as the proper time to fully integrate Odell Beckham Jr. into the offense. The Packers are dealing with some very impactful injuries and Aaron Rodgers’ toe continues to bother him. It’s a good spot for the Rams.

 

Pick: Rams 28, Packers 24

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Line: Ravens -3.5

Lamar Jackson should be back for Baltimore. Baker Mayfield is hobbled and struggling, but the Browns’ run game should be enough to keep them in the game. Ravens win, but it’s close.

Pick: Ravens 26, Browns 23

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team

Line: Pick

I know the Seahawks are sinking and Pete Carroll’s postgame comments point to this perhaps being his last year in the PNW. But I can’t see Russell Wilson losing his third game in a row, with this one being to a Washington team that struggles to defend the pass. Seahawks keep their heart beating for one more week.

Pick: Seahawks 27, WFT 20

Minnesota Vikings at 49ers

Line: 49ers -3

This line is spot on. The Vikings only play close games. Minnesota could very well be 8-2 or 2-8 had things broken differently in a couple games. That’s the NFL. The 49ers have found the right formula over the last two weeks and I think the quick passing game and running game does the trick here again, but Kirk Cousins keeps it close.

Pick: 49ers 24, Vikings 20

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