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The main lesson we learned from a hectic, COVID-interrupted Week 15 was to lean on the reliable teams even more as players are shuttled on and off the reserve list.
That means the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, and, yes, the Detroit Lions unless impacted by COVID. (That will come up with one of these teams later on.)
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Week 16 kicks off with one of the NFL's hottest teams taking on a division leader desperately trying to hang on until its best players can return. Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers have won five of six, while the Tennesse Titans have struggled to generate offense without Derrick Henry. You know where we are riding to kick off the holiday season.
Let's get to the Christmas winners.
RECORD: 122-101 ATS (136-87-1 SU)
49ers at Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
Jimmy Garoppolo has the 49ers’ offense rolling. Tennessee will be without Taylor Lewan and Roger Saffold on the offensive line, making life even more difficult for a Titans offense that has scored fewer than 21 points in four straight games. A.J. Brown is expected to be back, but that won't be enough to stop the 49ers train.
Pick: 49ers 28, Titans 23
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -7.5
The Browns still have 22 players on the COVID list, including Baker Mayfield. The quarterback should be ready for Saturday’s game. If he’s back, I think the Browns can keep it within a touchdown, but their playoff dreams are finished.
Pick: Packers 24, Browns 20
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -1
Kyler Murray says the Cardinals won’t collapse like last season. But they are missing DeAndre Hopkins and just got pasted by the Lions. Meanwhile, the Colts are coming off an impressive win vs. the Patriots. If the Cardinals struggle against the run like they did last week, Jonathan Taylor will run wild.
Pick: Colts 24, Cardinals 23
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -2.5
Lamar Jackson still hasn’t practiced due to a bone bruise in his ankle. Tyler Huntley acquitted himself well against the Packers. The Bengals smoked the Ravens with Jackson back in October, and the only thing that’s different now is Baltimore is even more banged up. The Jungle will be rocking as the Bengals inch closer to an AFC North title.
Pick: Bengals 26, Ravens 20
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9.5
The Eagles made life tough for Garrett Gilbert on Tuesday, and I expect much of the same for Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm. The Giants are a complete tire fire. As long as the Eagles take care of the ball, they should cruise.
Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 13
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -5.5
I might ride with the Lions for the rest of the regular season. They just keep playing hard for Dan Campbell. The Falcons are a fraudulent 6-8. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NFL by DVOA, and this is just too many dadgum points.
Pick: Lions 23, Falcons 20 (UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Line: Bucs -10
The Panthers don’t do anything well enough to hang with a Bucs team that just got shut out. Give me pissed off Tom Brady. This one will be a rout.
Pick: Bucs 30, Panthers 10
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -2.5
The Patriots are coming off a loss in which they repeatedly shot themselves in the foot. Always bank on a Bill Belichick team responding after laying an egg. Plus, Belichick lives rent-free in Sean McDermott’s head, which means the Bills coach is primed to make some odd coaching decisions.
Pick: Patriots 26, Bills 20
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Line: Chargers -10
I’m not sure they can make the line big enough for me to take Davis Mills against a team that isn’t the Jaguars. Justin Herbert shreds the Texans, and the Bolts are one step away from the playoffs.
Pick: Chargers 33, Texans 14
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings
Line: Rams -3
The Vikings have played 14 games this season, and 13 of them have been decided by one score. I expect this one to be a nail-biter. The Rams still have a lot of kinks to work out on offense, but having Cooper Kupp helps alleviate a lot of their issues. Jalen Ramsey helps limit Justin Jefferson’s explosive plays and the Rams escape.
Pick: Rams 27, Vikings 26
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
Line: Pick
Yuck. Trevor Lawrence has shown a bit more than Zach Wilson in Year 1, and the Jags’ defense has somewhat of a pulse. Jags in a rock fight.
Pick: Jags 17, Jets 13
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -6.5
You can’t trust either of these teams offensively. Russell Wilson looks like a shell of himself, and I don’t know what the hell the Bears do during practice each week. Feels like the Seahawks are more likely to play for pride than a Bears team that just wants Matt Nagy to box up his stuff.
Pick: Seahawks 26, Bears 17
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Line: Pick
Drew Lock is in with Teddy Bridgewater injured. I’d say that should swing things the Raiders’ way, but the Silver and Black almost just threw one away against Nick Mullens. If Darren Waller can’t play, I have no idea how the Raiders plan to move the ball against Denver’s defense. Give me the ponies.
Pick: Broncos 23, Raiders 20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -7.5
Kansas City has the latest COVID outbreak, with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce on the COVID list. Kelce is vaccinated, so he will have a chance to play, but this feels like a tenuous situation for the Chiefs. Mike Tomlin’s teams never quit, and the Steelers somehow have an opportunity to make the playoffs. I’ll take the Chiefs, but the Steelers make it ugly.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Steelers 20
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team
Line: Cowboys -11
The Football Team isn’t as good as their record suggests, and the Cowboys need to get their offense right as the playoffs approach. Dallas gets up big and doesn't let up.
Pick: Cowboys 30, WFT 16
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
The ‘Fins have won six in a row, and the Saints are going to have to start Ian Book due to COVID-19. Make it seven in a row for Miami.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Saints 13