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Week 4 of the NFL season gave us the birth of the NFL’s next great quarterback rivalry, a 66-yard game-winning field goal, the latest chapter of Aaron Rodgers’ heroics and the first loss for Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
On the betting side, we had an 8-8 week but learned a few things along the way.
No betting on the Patriots until their offense proves to be reliable.
Bet against the Jets until they score more than 10 points.
Don’t bet or watch the Bears unless your family's lives are at stake. It’s not worth it.
Week 4 kicks off with a typical Thursday night doozy between the last two No. 1 overall picks, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.
Let’s get to the winners.
Record: 25-23 ATS (30-18 SU)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -7.5
I still think the Jaguars will end up being a good garbage-time cover team. They haven’t shown it yet, but this might be the week. Joe Burrow hits Ja’Marr Chase for two touchdowns in the win but the Jags kick down the backdoor late.
Pick: Bengals 27, Jags 23
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4.5
The Cowboys played the Bucs tight and beat the Chargers. The offense is firing on all cylinders and Dan Quinn has the defense looking respectable. I’m a believer in this Panthers team, especially Phil Snow’s defense. Cowboys win a close one.
Pick: Cowboys 28, Panthers 24
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Chiefs -7
After looking good for the first six quarters of the season, the Eagles have fallen off and were borderline unwatchable on offense against the Cowboys. Philly can’t get into a shootout with the Chiefs, but there might not be any stopping Patrick Mahomes after two straight losses. This one won’t be close.
Pick: Chiefs 34, Eagles 20
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -16
Circle the wagons, baby! The Bills are back. We’re going to look back on that Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and wonder how the hell the Bills lost to Big Ben’s corpse. Josh Allen puts on a show in a rout.
Pick: Bills 30, Texans 13
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7.5
Will the real Saints please stand up? The Saints have dominated the Packers and Patriots in two of their first three games, with a stinker against the Panthers wedged in between. This is the Saints’ first real home game of the season. While they are looking forward to returning to New Orleans, Joe Judge is reading off a list of benefits that come from his conditioning program. It’s about to get uglier for the Giants.
Pick: Saints 27, Giants 13
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings
Line: Browns -2
Kirk Cousins has been on fire over the last two weeks, but he meets a Browns defense that almost made the Bears cancel their franchise last Sunday. This will be a tougher task for Myles Garrett and Co., but I like Baker Mayfield and the Browns’ offense to stay hot and win a close one.
Pick: Browns 27, Vikings 24
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
Line: Titans -7
The Titans’ defense is horrific, but the Jets can’t do anything positive. Zach Wilson is tap dancing like Gregory Hines in the pocket and his eyes are looking everywhere the second he takes the snap. It’s going to be another sad day in Gotham.
Pick: Titans 27, Jets 13
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -1.5
An early-season, must-win for both teams means bad news for the one with the worse quarterback. That would be the Colts. Jacoby Brissett played solid against the Raiders while Carson Wentz continues to play subpar football. ‘Fins win and send the Colts to 0-4.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Colts 20
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -2.5
This feels like a classic overreaction line. Everyone is ready to rightfully hurl Matt Nagy into Lake Michigan after the Bears managed just 47 total yards in Week 3, and the Lions have been frisky in three losses to the three good teams. But I think we’re getting a couple points of value on the Bears here. Nagy has to find a way to play to Justin Fields’ strengths this week, right? Right?
Pick: Bears 23, Lions 17
Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons
Line: Football Team -1.5
Atlanta finally got off the mat by beating the Giants. Clap, please! Washington’s defense has been bad so far this season, but I think they turn it around against a Falcons team that has one of the worst offensive lines in football. Footballs in a low-scoring, ugly game.
Pick: WFT 17, Falcons 14
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Line: Rams -4.5
Buddy, every time I think I’m all-in on the Cardinals, Kliff Kingsbury goes and does something stupid like attempt a 68-yard field goal before halftime that results in a 109-yard touchdown return going the other way. It’s hard to consistently back that kind of nonsense. But I like pain. The Rams are coming off a big win against the Bucs and have had a full week of Super Bowl favorite talk blown their direction. Kyler throws a late haymaker to spring the upset.
Pick: Cardinals 30, Rams 28 (Upset of the week)
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
Line: Pick ‘em
The combined record of the three teams the Broncos have beaten to start the season is zero. So, we don’t actually know anything about Denver other than that they are better than the Jets, Giants and Jaguars. But Vic Fangio’s defense is salty and the Ravens just struggled to beat the Lions. Denver contains Lamar Jackson and Teddy Bridgewater does just enough to move to 4-0.
Pick: Broncos 20, Ravens 17
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -6.5
The Steelers’ offense has been putrid this season while Aaron Rodgers has come alive after laying a deuce on the floor in Week 1. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t the elite unit it once was. Packers roll.
Pick: Packers 27, Steelers 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
Line: Bucs -7
Cue Adele. Tom Brady returns to his old stomping grounds fresh off a loss to find Bill Belichick and Mac Jones reeling after being pounded by the Saints. I think Belichick will have some things up his sleeves, but this one is all about No. 12. The Bucs get up early and Brady doesn’t relent.
Pick: Bucs 30, Patriots 17
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Chargers -3.5
The Raiders’ defense has been surprisingly competent through three weeks, but they have yet to face a quarterback who can test them deep in a way that Justin Herbert can. Derek Carr and the Raiders’ offense can be explosive, but I don’t think the defense can get the stops it needs to move the Silver and Black to 4-0. Bolts up.
Pick: Chargers 34, Raiders 28
Seattle Seahawks at 49ers
Line: 49ers -2.5
Oh, man. This one has all the makings of a bare-knuckle fight that neither team can afford to lose. The Seahawks fell to 1-2 after getting shredded by the Vikings while the 49ers left Aaron Rodgers 37 seconds to rip their hearts out, a feat he was all too happy to perform.
The 49ers’ offense has been slow out of the gate, but the Seahawks’ defense has issues that can’t be easily fixed -- 49ers in a nail-biter.
Pick: 49ers 30, Seahawks 27