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We had a good news, bad news Week 4 on the betting board.
The good news was the syndicate went 9-7 and the upset of the week hit for the second week in a row (thanks, Kyler). The bad news is that we didn't quite understand how bad the Miami Dolphins are and forgot the cardinal rule of NFL betting -- we don't bet against Bill Belichick as a home dog.
Anyways, let's get to the winners this week as we look to creep further into the green.
Record: 34-30 ATS (41-23 SU)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Line: Rams -2.5
The Seahawks got a nice win to get back to .500, but their defense still has a lot of issues. The Rams were sleepy against the Cardinals and the game was over before they woke up. McVay and Stafford bounce back in the PNW.
Pick: Rams 28, Seahawks 24
New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
Time for the first game in jolly old London. The Jets needed overtime to beat a Tennessee Titans team without its two best receivers, while the Falcons lost a tough one to the WFT. Zach Wilson is getting better, but I’ll take the birds across the pond.
Pick: Falcons 24, Jets 17
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Line: Patriots -9
Can you really have a spread less than 13 if Davis Mills is the quarterback? The Patriots played the Bucs tough, but at 1-3, they need a win in the worst way. This game smells like a 17-3 Bill Belichick special.
Pick: Patriots 17, Texans 3
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Packers -3
The Bengals got some extra rest ahead of a marquee showdown between two 3-1 teams. The Packers have looked much better since their season-opening pantsing, but I’ll take the upset here. Bengals keep pace in the AFC North.
Pick: Bengals 28, Packers 27 (Upset of the week)
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -1
This game is just sad. Pittsburgh's offense has been pathetic this season and the Broncos likely will have to turn to backup Drew Lock. This is going to be an ugly, slog of a game. Steelers make the plays on defense to win at home.
Pick: Steelers 20, Broncos 13
New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team
Line: Saints -1
The Saints’ problem is that they are a team that wants to run that ball but isn’t very good at running the ball. Sean Payton hasn’t gotten Alvin Kamara involved in the passing game and is trying to win with Jameis Winston game managing instead of doing what Winston does best – try to create big plays down the field. Washington’s defense finally shows up.
Pick: Football Team 23, Saints 20
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -10
Tampa Bay is one injury in the secondary away from pulling people out of the stands to play corner. The Bucs have looked shaky over the past two weeks, but the Dolphins offense is a horrific sight to behold. Bucs jump on the Fins early and it’s over by halftime.
Pick: Bucs 31, Dolphins 16
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -9.5
The Vikings’ offense struggled mightily against the Browns. They should have less trouble with the Lions’ hodgepodge unit. Still, I can’t lay almost 10 with Kirk Cousins. Vikings win but the Lions keep it close.
Pick: Vikings 23, Lions 16
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3.5
Carolina’s vaunted run defense was torn to tatters by the Cowboys, but the Eagles aren’t capable of inflicting the same damage on the ground. The Panthers think they are for real and I’m inclined to agree. Eagles keep it close, but Jalen Hurts turns it over late to seal a Panthers win.
Pick: Panther 27, Eagles 26
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans -4.5
Prior to the events at Urban’s Chophouse, I was inclined to pick the Jags in this game. But with Grindgate hanging over the Jags’ head, I’ll take Derrick Henry to steamroll what is just an average run defense.
Pick: Titans 24, Jags 17
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders
Line: Raiders -5.5
Hey, Matt Nagy finally came to his senses and named Justin Fields the starter, albeit begrudgingly. The Raiders did a whole lot of complaining about things that didn’t happen on the football field after their loss to the Chargers. Las Vegas needs this one to prove its 3-0 start wasn’t a fluke. Chicago’s bad offensive line is just what the Silver and Black need to get right.
Pick: Raiders 24, Bears, 16
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Chargers -1
Baker Mayfield has a shoulder injury and couldn’t put the ball in the vicinity of his receivers against the Vikings. Cleveland’s defense is great, but you can only hold down Justin Herbert for so long. Bolt Up!
Pick: Chargers 27, Browns 23
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -7.5
The Cowboys are 4-0 against the spread this season, but I think this one will be tight. Saquon Barkley breaks a couple big runs and Daniel Jones doesn’t turn the ball over, but Dak Prescott comes through late.
Pick: Cowboys 28, Giants 24
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -3
This feels like everyone who loses their shirt early Sunday will be on the Chiefs in a “win my money back” play. But the Bills are rolling, and Kansas City’s defense couldn’t stop the Little Giants right now. Josh Allen gets his first win over Patrick Mahomes.
Pick: Bills 31, Chiefs 30
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -7
I’m not taking much from the Colts’ win over the Dolphins. Miami stinks, and I’m not sure Indy is much better. The Ravens bottle up the Colts’ running game and Lamar Jackson runs wild in primetime.
Pick: Ravens 30, Colts 20
49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -5.5
This is tough because of the 49ers’ quarterback situation. If I knew it was going to be Trey Lance, I would bet the 49ers just because he’ll be harder for the Cardinals to gameplan for. The 49ers can’t afford to lose this game, but Kyler is unstoppable right now and San Francisco’s defense hasn’t been what we thought it would be. Arizona deals a massive blow to the 49ers’ season.
Pick: Cardinals 30, 49ers 24