SAN FRANCISCO -- On the day the Giants announced that Buster Posey had joined their ownership group, they sat 30 games out of first place and six games under .500. But near the end of a long Zoom session with reporters, Posey leaned on optimism.
"Sometimes an upper-70s, low-80s win season is not that far off from a 95-win season," he said. "Sometimes a break here and there can really change that and change momentum."
Posey saw the swings throughout his big league career, helping lead a surprising 2010 team to a title and then winning two more with groups that entered as wild cards. When he returned from a year off late in his career, the Giants looked like a .500 team but shocked the industry by winning 107 games.
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The dropoff in 2022 was steep, but the climb back to postseason contention may not be. The National League Championship Series was played between the 89-win Padres and 87-win Phillies, with the latter group shaking off some September struggles to nearly win a title.
The end of that World Series started the clock on what looms as one of the most important offseasons in franchise history. The question for the Giants is not how far they are from contention, but how far they're willing to go to change every part of the franchise's future, on the field and off.
Since Farhan Zaidi took over before the 2019 season, the Giants have mostly stayed in their comfort zone. They have preferred winning at the margins over winning the headlines. They have become known for churning through dozens and dozens of new players a year, but in the offseason, they have been selective.
The biggest guaranteed contract Zaidi has handed out is the three-year, $36 million deal Anthony DeSclafani got last offseason, but the front office may need to go nearly 10 times that dollar figure to land this offseason's big prize.
San Francisco Giants
For better or worse, the Giants have put themselves in a position where most of the fan base views this winter as "Aaron Judge or bust," and team officials haven't exactly shied away from the hype.
On his end-of-season call with reporters, Zaidi said the Giants "do have the flexibility to be involved in every possible option on the table." During an appearance on Giants Talk a few days later, new general manager Pete Putila said "all options are on the table" this offseason. Chairman Greg Johnson, rarely heard from publicly, had perhaps the most notable quote during that Posey press session.
"As you know, we have a lot of flexibility coming into this offseason and we're well aware of the (free agent) shortstops and the person who can hit in the Bronx that is out there," he said.
Judge will be the most-talked-about target, but the Giants have other holes to fill.
Their main priority this offseason is to get more athletic and stronger defensively, particularly up the middle. Beyond Judge and Brandon Nimmo, the center field class is not strong, but expect the Giants to scour the trade market to try and upgrade defensively, which would allow Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater to move back to corners and strengthen the defense overall.
This is not a good winter to be seeking an outfielder, but it is a fantastic one if you need infield help up the middle. The shortstop class is strong and led by Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts, which could make this an awkward stretch for the Giants.
Their own Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, Brandon Crawford, is signed through the 2023 season and prefers to stay at the only position he has ever played, but the Giants have made no secret of the fact that they'll check in on the available options.
Would that mean signing one of the free agents and playing him at second or third for a year? Would it mean asking their most popular player to switch positions after a decade of brilliance? Would it be a hybrid, with Crawford and a newcomer splitting time at short, another position and DH?
The Giants did not approach Crawford about moving before the season ended and Zaidi did not have a lot to offer in his press session, other than to call Crawford a "great shortstop" but also note that he shouldn't be counted on to start 150 games in 2023.
"Again, I wouldn't get any more specific than saying we're going to have to look for ways to improve the roster, to improve the defense, and the best way to improve your defense is by targeting really strong defensive players and really strong defensive players tend to play up the middle," Zaidi said.
"I think he knows that. He wants to win, he wants us to be as good of a team as we can be. We've talked about how in an offseason like this, everything has got to be on the table, but his shortstop defense was clearly not an issue for us this year.
"He continues to play really well over there. We're just not going to have anything more to say about that other than just improving our defense overall is a priority."
If the Giants are able to find a way to strengthen their defense up the middle, they could turn Thairo Estrada into a utility man like Chris Taylor or Kiké Hernandez.
In Wilmer Flores, J.D. Davis, David Villar and others, they have more than enough depth to handle the corners, although they must make a decision on Evan Longoria and monitor Brandon Belt's rehab.
The sense within the organization at the end of the season was that Belt likely is not being brought back, and that co-ace Carlos Rodón is in the same position. Rodón opted out of his contact on Sunday and is in line for a nine-figure deal.
If that's the case, the Giants will need to once again find a star to pair with Logan Webb, and this is a good winter to be doing that. Jacob deGrom leads a strong class and could look for the kind of high-AAV, short-term deal the Giants prefer.
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Team officials insist there is no operating manual that says the Giants must stay within a certain range of years or under nine figures, but there's no doubt there's been a strong lean toward less painful deals. That will have to change this offseason.
The main target will be Judge, who grew up a Giants fan and just set an American League record for homers after turning down a $213.5 million extension. He was the talk of the season within MLB and often within the Giants clubhouse, and the sense from multiple sources seems to be the same.
The Giants feel strongly that they'll be one of Judge's top two choices and that he is exactly what they need.
Beyond providing an incredible boost for the lineup, he would bring a superstar to an organization lacking sizzle, one that now must compete with the reigning NBA champions and all-in 49ers for Bay Area fans' attention.
There is also a sense that this may end like other high-profile pursuits. Most Giants people who have checked with their connections to Judge feel he ultimately will end up back in New York, but the Giants plan to try and to open up the checkbook.
Zaidi's first offseason in charge was mostly quiet until the final weeks, when he chased Bryce Harper with an offer in excess of $300 million. Four years later, the team is still searching for that building block. For most Giants fans, this offseason will be defined by the size of the splash they make, but the front office is trying not to feel that pressure early on.
"We just don't see it as a 'let's go win the offseason’ situation. We view it as our fans expect a winning team, which we didn't deliver this year,” Zaidi said. “We have to go back to the drawing board and explore every channel to get better. I expect us to be really active this offseason and we do have the flexibility to be involved in every possible option on the table.
“Our goal as we get to spring training and when Opening Day hits in 2023 is we feel like we've got a playoff-caliber team on the field, and that's going to drive everything that we do this offseason."