Eight bold predictions for virtual 2020 MLB Winter Meetings
Like so much else this year, the MLB Winter Meetings will be missed. It's four days full of $7 hotel coffees, stale air, checking your phone to see how many steps you put in while searching for team executives in hotel lobbies and hallways, holding your iPhone over six heads to see if it can capture the sound from Scott Boras' yearly address, and counting a bag of cheddar goldfish and a banana as your lunch because your team was thrown into a rumor that you spent all day chasing.It's a weird scene. It's also the best.Anybody who is anybody in baseball gathers at the same hotel for four days, trading stories and mini-scoops throughout the day and late into the night. And there's nothing during the Hot Stove Season that matches the excitement that ripples through the lobby when a huge trade is made or somebody signs for $120 million late at night.This year's meetings are going virtual like everything else, and it's hard to know what that means. Front office executives expect the action to pick up, but it won't be the frenzy we've seen in the past, in part because of the lack of a common gathering space and in part because of the reason for that decision. Teams are crying poor after a season played with no fans, but some will still take the plunge.As "virtual Winter Meetings" week kicks off, here are some bold predictions about what we might see from the Giants and others as the offseason really gets into gear.
Look, there's nothing bold about writing "the Giants will sign an intriguing pitcher coming off an injury and give him a minor league deal worth $2.5 million with incentives." Instead, let's predict that they get back into the hunt for a big name.
Thus far, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi hasn't given a player more than two years (Wilmer Flores) or $18.9 million (Kevin Gausman) in two-plus offseasons in charge, but he did go hard after Bryce Harper, and the Giants never will rule themselves out on a big-time player, knowing that sometimes the opportunity is just too good to pass up regardless of what you were planning.
The Giants have already been connected to Marcell Ozuna, which gets us going here. Among the top five free agents, Trevor Bauer and George Springer are also easy roster fits. The Bauer market has been remarkably quiet, but whenever it ramps up, it helps to have big-market teams like the Giants in the mix. We're not talking about actually coming away with the player. But it's about time the Giants get mentioned again as a suitor for the top free agents.
Zaidi is a big NBA fan, and the deal with the Angels last season was something straight out of the other league's playbook.
The Giants took on a bad contract and in return they got Will Wilson, a first-round pick who is one of their top dozen prospects. Zaidi pulled that off while dealing with a deep-pocketed team in a year with no financial concerns. Imagine what types of possibilities might be out there this December with so many organizations now under serious financial pressure?
The Giants showed they're willing to spend with the Gausman decision, but they don't necessarily have to chase free agents. Taking on someone else's bad contract and getting a prospect in return would continue to bolster the rebuild.
The Trevor May addition was a savvy one, and if you listen to national reporters, it's just the beginning of a flood. Billionaire owner Steve Cohen has been a breath of fresh air in Flushing Meadows and stated some big goals. But if you listen to Mets executives closely, they also talk of building the right way, as the Los Angeles Dodgers have.
Maybe they sign Bauer and J.T. Realmuto and "win" the offseason, but how often does that actually work out?
If the Mets are intent on doing this the smart way, they'll spread some of that money around to fill several holes, perhaps take on a bad contract to boost the farm system, and commit financially to player development. Realmuto makes sense given their need at catcher and the fact they'd be taking from a division rival, but beyond that, they're much better off adding more players like May, a good back-end arm for their bullpen. They could have a great offseason without creating the expected big headlines.
Why stop now if you're A.J. Preller and the surging San Diego Padres, who are desperately trying to close the gap with the Dodgers in the NL West. They were dealt a big blow when Mike Clevinger underwent Tommy John surgery, and the conventional wisdom is that they need more starting pitching. But short of convincing Bauer to come back to Southern California, there aren't any remaining big-time options.
Preller has spent much of his time over the last year bolstering the bullpen, so the bold prediction here is that he passes up on the lackluster starting pitching options and instead trades for Josh Hader, who has been in and out of rumors for a couple years now.
Putting one of the game's best relievers into an already good bullpen would give the Padres a late-innings edge in those 19 games against the Dodgers and take some pressure off a young starting staff. They're one of the few organizations with the prospect power to get it done, and Preller has shown that he's not at all afraid to go all-in.
In some form, this offseason is going to make the chase more difficult for the Giants and everyone else in the NL West. The Dodgers are coming off a title and have the flexibility to do just about anything they want, like, trade for Blake Snell. This prediction isn't just about trolling, as Snell was famously removed prematurely in the World Series.
The Rays are reportedly open to trading their ace, and this is what they do. They previously reloaded by dealing ace Chris Archer, and with Snell getting a bump up to $10.5 million this year, it's not surprising that one of the poorest teams in the big leagues might deal him. Putting Snell atop the rotation with Walker Buehler would give the Dodgers a dominant one-two punch and take pressure off 32-year-old Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers could also then move postseason star Julio Urias to the bullpen, solving their ninth-inning issue.
It sounds crazy on the surface for the Rays to make a deal with the team that just broke their hearts, but neither one of these front offices makes emotional decisions, and Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman came from Tampa Bay and is close with this front office.
Arenado's trade value was a big story last offseason, and this time around the Colorado Rockies -- who just non-tendered promising outfielder David Dahl -- seem even more likely to chase financial savings. People within the industry love connecting the SoCal native to the Dodgers, but taking on $200 million isn't exactly in the Friedman playbook. Plus, the Rockies will rightfully get killed by their own fans if they trade Arenado to their division rival.
It's been a while since the Nationals made a huge splash on a position player, and they lost Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon in successive offseasons. The Nationals just finished last in a division that got a lot better a few weeks ago when the Mets changed ownership, but putting Arenado at the heart of a lineup with Juan Soto and Trea Turner would get them back on the right track. They don't have a good farm system, but that shouldn't matter if they're willing to take a huge contract off the Rockies' hands.
*Side note: Based on recent history, this trade would give the Giants roughly nine extra wins a year.
Toronto is that classic team that is full of young talent, seemingly about to become a contender, and ready to make that big move to take the next step.
Springer is really the perfect fit.
The 31-year-old outfielder has a great reputation and would bring his postseason résumé and leadership to that clubhouse, along with a dangerous right-handed bat that's made him a perennial All-Star and down-ballot MVP candidate.
The Blue Jays are a well-known Springer suitor, but actually signing the Connecticut native would be a bold move that accelerates the timeline for a team that sneakily finished just one game behind the New York Yankees during the shortened season.
Are we really betting that MLB and the MLBPA -- two sides that can't agree on whether an outfield grass is green -- will come to terms on a major rule change? Yes we are, even though we'll miss Madison Bumgarner swings and relief pitcher at-bats. Be bold!
The universal DH is coming in the next CBA anyway, and it's just silly to put the pitchers back in the box for just six months when just about none of them want to be there and their front offices prefer building with the extra lineup spot. There's a deal to be made here, possibly with expanded playoffs going to the owners in return. All it takes is someone being the grownup in the room.
