I write this piece every year, but I never could have predicted what happened in 2021.
Usually, "bold predictions" come up short because they're too bold. For instance, last year I picked Austin Slater to hit more homers than in his previous four seasons combined (he came close, missing by two!) and Duane Kuiper projected double-digit homers for Heliot Ramos, who didn't end up making his debut.
The point is to predict something that is attainable, but unlikely. But the 2021 Giants had their own plans. They were far bolder than anyone on the outside could have guessed.
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How crazy would it have been if I had posted this column last year and predicted that the Giants would take the NL West by winning 107 games, Brandon Crawford would nearly win an MVP award, Logan Webb would be one of the best starters in baseball, LaMonte Wade Jr. would be the most clutch player in baseball, and Brandon Belt would end the Belt Wars not with his bat, but by putting an electrical tape 'C' on his chest.
Yes, that all happened.
What's in store for 2022? The players are thinking about a championship, and that's really not that bold. Here are five other predictions for what we might see:
Mike Yastrzemski Makes The All-Star Team
San Francisco Giants
Yastrzemski would have played in the All-Star Game had one taken place in 2020, but his 2021 was generally viewed as a disappointment. All he did, though, was hit 25 homers, compete for a Gold Glove in right field, and put up a third straight two-WAR season. And he did all of this after getting drilled on the hand on the final day of spring training.
Hand injuries linger for hitters, and Yastrzemski was never right last season. He dealt with other nagging aches and pains, too, and that led to notable struggles against left-handed pitchers. His wRC+ dropped 53 points year over year, but there are a lot of reasons to think he can meet in the middle.
Yastrzemski is 31 and healthy, and he's coming off an offseason of good work at Vanderbilt. He has dad strength now, too. Never bet against that. On a team full of platoons, he should be in line for another everyday role if he can be even serviceable against lefties. The Giants have only two right-handed-hitting outfielders, and Yastrzemski is the best bet of the lefties to handle same-side pitchers well.
In his fourth year, Yastrzemski is once again kind of under the radar. He's done very, very well in that spot before.
Thairo Estrada Wins The 2022 Chris Taylor Award
You might recall some previous winners of this award, including Max Muncy, Mike Yastrzemski (2020) and LaMonte Wade Jr. (2021). Estrada looks like the logical candidate to be next in line as a Farhan Find.
At 26 years old, he's ready for his shot as an everyday player, and the Giants can give it to him. Donovan Solano is now in Cincinnati and Wilmer Flores is filling in for Evan Longoria, so Estrada should get most of the right-handed at-bats at second base, and perhaps just about all of the at-bats, period, if Tommy La Stella (Achilles rehab) misses the start of the year. He can back up Brandon Crawford at short and soak up additional time in the outfield or at third, too.
Estrada was one of the Yankees' top 10 prospects before he was shot in the hip during the 2018 offseason. He got limited time for them the next two years and the Giants scooped him up for cash considerations last April. In 52 games, he posted a .813 OPS and hit seven homers, passing Mauricio Dubon on the depth chart down the stretch.
That was all a sign of things to come for a young right-handed hitter who could give the Giants their infield version of Yastrzemski and Wade.
Joey Bart is NL Rookie of the Year
It takes more than just a strong offensive season to win Rookie of the Year. You need opportunity, too, and while some other top candidates might be held back for service time reasons (the Pittsburgh Pirates already sent top prospect Oneil Cruz to Triple-A), Bart should be in the Opening Day lineup.
The former No. 2 overall pick didn't homer in a 2020 debut, but he has all-fields power and should pretty easily get to double-digits once he gets comfortable. Behind the plate, Bart has grown by leaps and bounds in the last two years. He also simply seems more confident and more at home in a big league clubhouse.
The Giants will start with a timeshare behind the plate, but Bart has a chance to grab a meaty starting role with early production. That should allow him to be a Rookie of the Year frontrunner 12 years after Buster Posey won the award.
The Rotation Leads the Majors in ERA
This actually isn't all that bold, because the Giants finished third last year, although they were half a run behind the Dodgers. But still, people don't seem to be talking enough about how good this group could be.
Logan Webb has been sharp this spring and now gets a full season atop the rotation. Carlos Rodon slides in for Kevin Gausman a year after posting a 2.37 ERA; he's not a great bet to make 30 starts, but when he's out there, the Giants expect dominance. Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani return and both are coming off good years. Alex Cobb (3.76) takes over for Johnny Cueto (4.08), and he has opened some eyes this spring.
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Those five probably won't lead the league in starts or innings, but when they're healthy, they're all good. There's enough depth behind them that the overall numbers shouldn't take a massive hit when guys need a breather or go on the Injured List. Teams like the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays get more love nationally, but the prediction here is that the Giants have the most effective rotation in baseball, a major reason why they stay in the race despite some other question marks.
Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris Find Kris Bryant 2.0
Alright, alright, they didn't quite make the splash most fans hoped for this winter, but the Giants are set up well to repeat the Kris Bryant trade. (Note: Not for the actual Kris Bryant, although that would be hilarious.)
They should be in contention, they can very easily take on a massive salary at the deadline, and they have a farm system that's deep enough to get any deal done. Bryant cost Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian, which hurt a bit (Cubs people love Kilian, in particular), but a new crop of young outfielders is emerging this spring -- Armani Smith and Grant McCray are way under the radar but have had good springs -- and it seems like every pitcher at Papago Park sits at 95 mph or above.
(Bonus prediction since we're talking minor leaguers: Luis Matos joins Marco Luciano as a consensus top 20 overall prospect.)
The Giants have the rotation and bullpen to hang in the race for an expanded postseason, and there will be plenty of options to bolster the lineup in July without having to take a wrecking ball to the farm system.
Rivals are already predicting that Carlos Correa will be one-and-done in Minnesota. Will the Guardians finally give in and trade Jose Ramirez? Is it crazy to think that the Yankees could fall back in a very tough division and dangle Aaron Judge? There should be plenty of options for one of the busiest front offices in the game, and Zaidi and Harris have already shown that they'll go for it when the timing is right.