Giants' playoff odds very high in Baseball-Reference's model


The Giants are one of the most likely NL teams to land a spot in the MLB playoffs, at least according to Baseball-Reference's current projections.

There are only three NL teams with at least 30 wins as of Friday afternoon, and they all happen to play in the same division. The Giants have the third-best record in the NL, yet sit in third place in the NL West as the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers both live up to lofty expectations.

As far as the oddsmakers go, the Giants have an extremely low probability of walking away with a division title. The Giants are plus-5000 to be the division champions, a significant margin away from the Padres (plus-160) and the Dodgers (minus-300). All odds are provided by our partner, PointsBet.

MLB will return to a 10-team playoff format after experimenting with a 16-team bracket in the truncated 2020 season. So if the season ended today, the Giants and Dodgers would play a winner-take-all wild card game from Dodger Stadium.

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The folks over at FanGraphs also don't seem to share the same confidence level as Baseball-Reference when it comes to the Giants' playoff odds. Their projections give the Giants a 36.7 percent chance at being in the MLB playoffs at season's end, and just a 0.8 percent chance of winning the division.


The Giants are 30-20 as the month of May winds down, with an offense showing an unusual power surge and a strong pitching staff that has kept the team in just about every game.

MLB's playoffs are quite a ways away, but there's no question the Giants are off to a better start than many expected.

Manager Gabe Kapler and the rest of the Giants will need to keep their feet on the gas in order to compete with the star power in Southern California. Their postseason dreams will depend on it.

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